2026-01-13

Assess whether government will attempt Montrouis clearance operation in next two weeks or abandon route reopening promise. Monitor whether PNH and Multinational Security Support mission coordinate sustained operations at Route 1 and Route 2 blockage points. Track economic impact of continued Route 1 and Route 2 closures on fuel distribution, food supply, and commercial activity. Evaluate whether Route 3 inauguration generates positive media coverage sufficient to offset Route 1 and Route 2 closure impacts. Prepare analysis of post-February 7 territorial control scenarios if current government cannot secure primary corridors. Monitor whether opposition groups use infrastructure theater versus territorial reality contrast to delegitimize CPT extension arguments. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.