2026-01-13 · Daily
2026-01-11 · Daily
2026-01-09 · Daily
2026-01-13 — DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
AYITI INTEL Daily — 2026-01-13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Leslie Voltaire confirmed the Transitional Presidential Council will depart February 7
but introduced conditions requiring sixty percent political class consensus and
international community approval, contradicting the April 3 Agreement's unconditional
mandate termination. CARICOM escalated pressure with its second warning in four
days, expressing deep concern about actor slowness despite identified convergence
points in transition proposals. The government inaugurated National Route 3 between
Hinche and Saint-Raphael while Route 1 remains impassable at Montrouis and Route
2 faces periodic blockages, demonstrating capacity in secure zones but inability to
clear gang-controlled territories. Twenty-five days remain until the constitutional
deadline.
QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS
Leslie Voltaire stated CPT will leave February 7 but subordinated departure to political
consensus formula and international approval.
CARICOM Group of Eminent Persons issued second warning in four days expressing
deep concern about slowness of Haitian actors.
National Route 3 Hinche-Saint-Raphael section inaugurated while primary routes
remain blocked by gang control.
Police reported seizing thirty-three weapons and twelve thousand rounds in recent
operations.
Twenty-five days remain until February 7 constitutional deadline with no successor
framework agreement.
DEVELOPMENT 1: The Voltaire Conditional Departure Framework
CPT Presidential Coordinator Leslie Voltaire delivered two public statements between
January 10 and January 12 that represent the first explicit commitment by a Council
member to honor the February 7 mandate expiration but introduced conditional
language that fundamentally alters the commitment's meaning and creates ambiguity
about whether departure will occur if specified conditions remain unmet. In Jacmel on
January 10, Voltaire stated the Council signed to leave and will no longer be
January 13, 2026
legitimate after February 7, using unconditional language aligned with Article 12.1 of
the
2026-01-11 — DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
AYITI INTEL Daily — 2026-01-11
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CARICOM issued a public warning January 9 that time is running out for Haiti's leaders to agree on
transition ahead of February 7 CPT mandate expiration revealing that despite talks by CARICOM
Eminent Persons Group UN BINUH OAS La Francophonie and US Canadian embassies these
actors have failed to get Haitians to resolve the political impasse with only agreement being that
CPT must leave office but how that will happen and who will ensure it remains unclear. Miami Herald
reported CPT members attempted to replace coordinator Laurent Saint-Cyr for not supporting PM
Fils-Aime removal while PM negotiates to remain after February 7 without presidential oversight
structure. National Route No. 1 remains impassable at Montrouis since January 6 severing
Port-au-Prince from northern Haiti. The 30-day Port-au-Prince operational pause continues.
Twenty-seven days until February 7.
QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS
CARICOM publicly warns time running out for February 7 transition with no consensus on post-CPT
governance framework despite multiple international actors holding talks.
CPT internal conflict exposed as members attempted to replace Saint-Cyr for not supporting PM
removal while PM Fils-Aime seeks to govern post-February 7 without CPT oversight.
National Route No. 1 impassable at Montrouis since January 6 blocking commercial and
humanitarian traffic between capital and northern Haiti demonstrating gang strategic control of
infrastructure chokepoints.
Port-au-Prince 30-day operational pause continues as longest sustained period without major gang
violence on record while Artibonite offensive persists with 1,120 displaced in Montrouis.
Twenty-seven days until February 7 CPT mandate expiration with window for coordinated action
narrowed to next 10-14 days before institutional vacuum risk.
DEVELOPMENT 1
CARICOM WARNING CONFIRMS INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION FAILURE ON FEBRUARY 7
TRANSITION
The Caribbean Community issued a public warning January 9 that time is running out for Haiti's
leaders to agree on transition ahead of the February 7 CPT mandate expiration representing the first
explicit acknowledgment by a major international actor that the transition remains unresolved with 27
days remaining. The warning issued by CARICOM's Eminent Persons Group reveals that despite
holding talks with council members and political leaders multiple international actors including UN
Integrated Office in Port-
2026-01-09 — DAILY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
AYITI INTEL Daily — 2026-01-09
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
marks the third consecutive day without any reported political security or operational
developments across all monitored sources despite Haiti entering the 29-day countdown to the
February 7 CPT mandate expiration. The 27-day Port-au-Prince operational pause continues as
the longest sustained period without major gang violence on record. The CPT civil society and
international actors remain in a communications blackout with zero public statements on February
7 governance frameworks. The federal court TPS ruling affecting 350000 Haitians has not been
issued three days after the January 6 hearing. Twenty-nine days until constitutional reckoning.
QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS
Three consecutive days of complete silence from all actors during 29-day countdown to February
7 indicates negotiation paralysis.
27-day Port-au-Prince gang operational pause is longest on record demonstrating strategic
discipline as February 7 leverage.
Federal court has not issued TPS ruling three days after January 6 hearing leaving 350000
Haitians in limbo with 25 days until expiration.
First full work week since January 5 government resumption ends with zero CPT statements on
mandate extension frameworks.
If no announcements by January 12 critical decision window shifts to mid-January creating
compressed 18-22 day implementation timeline.
DEVELOPMENT 1
THE THREE-DAY SILENCE INDICATES NEGOTIATION DEADLOCK AS CRITICAL WINDOW
NARROWS
The three consecutive days without any reported developments across all monitored sources
represents an unprecedented communications blackout during a constitutional crisis now
occurring within the 29-day countdown to February 7. This extended silence indicates negotiation
paralysis among the CPT PM Fils-Aime civil society organizations and international actors
including CARICOM OAS and UN. The absence of any public statements suggests that
behind-the-scenes negotiations have reached an impasse with three possible