# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-05
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

saw major flooding in Cap-Haitien following heavy rains creating critical humanitarian disruption in
Haiti's second-largest city. Radio Metropole broadcast Haiti on the brink of collapse what awaits
us after February 7 2026 marking the first mainstream media program framing Feb 7 as
basculement rather than routine transition. The Trump administration's February 3 TPS
termination affecting 350,000 Haitians creates a compressed four-day timeline before CPT
mandate expiration compounding institutional crisis with diaspora deportation crisis. Despite
government operations resuming the 20-day gang operational pause continues with zero
incidents suggesting strategic discipline as leverage for February 7 negotiations. 33 days until
constitutional reckoning.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Cap-Haitien experiences major flooding creating critical situation in Nord Department disrupting
humanitarian operations and port access.
Radio Metropole frames Feb 7 as basculement signaling mainstream media shift from routine
transition to existential crisis narrative.
Washington Post calls Feb 3 TPS termination for 350,000 Haitians cruel creating compressed
timeline with Feb 7 CPT expiration affecting remittance flows.
20-day gang operational pause extends beyond government resumption demonstrating strategic
withholding of violence as Feb 7 leverage.
33 days remain until February 7 CPT mandate expiration with no public framework for institutional
continuity or succession planning.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

CAP-HAITIEN FLOODING COMPOUNDS MULTIDIMENSIONAL CRISIS
On January 5 2026 several neighborhoods of Cap-Haitien experienced severe flooding following
heavy rains with AlterPresse and Juno7 reporting a critical situation in Haiti's second-largest city.
The flooding represents the first major operational disruption in 2026 beyond gang violence
potentially affecting humanitarian operations port access and internal displacement in the Nord
Department. Cap-Haitien serves as a critical hub for aid delivery to northern regions and its port is
Haiti's second-largest maritime facility making flood-related disruptions operationally significant for
supply chains and humanitarian logistics.
The flooding underscores Haiti's compounding vulnerabilities demonstrating that even in areas
relatively free from gang control natural disasters overwhelm weak infrastructure and governance
capacity. With 33 days until February 7 and the CPT unable to coordinate effective disaster
January 05, 2026

response the Cap-Haitien situation illustrates Haiti's multidimensional crisis extending beyond
security and political challenges to encompass environmental and infrastructural collapse. The
Nord Department has remained comparatively stable relative to Port-au-Prince's gang-controlled
territories yet flooding demonstrates that governance deficits create universal vulnerability
regardless of gang presence.
The timing coincides with government operations resuming January 5 following the extended
holiday period yet neither the CPT nor relevant ministries issued coordinated disaster response
statements as of evening. The absence of visible government coordination during an active
humanitarian emergency in a major population center reinforces institutional weakness as the
February 7 deadline approaches. Cap-Haitien flooding may displace residents adding to the 1.4
million internally displaced persons documented by UNICEF in December 2024 further straining
humanitarian systems already operating beyond capacity.
The flooding occurs as international actors including CARICOM OAS and the UN have not
convened emergency sessions to operationalize institutional continuity mechanisms ahead of
February 7. The Cap-Haitien crisis demonstrates that Haiti's governance challenges extend
beyond constitutional succession to encompass basic disaster response capacity with natural
disasters exposing the same institutional deficits that enable gang territorial control. The CPT's
inability to visibly coordinate flood response 33 days before its mandate expires reinforces
concerns about post-February 7 governance viability regardless of constitutional frameworks.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Cap-Haitien has historically served as Haiti's second city and northern economic hub with its port
functioning as a critical alternative to Port-au-Prince maritime facilities. Flooding in Cap-Haitien
typically results from inadequate drainage infrastructure and deforestation in surrounding
watersheds exacerbated by weak municipal governance and limited disaster preparedness
capacity.



## TALKING POINTS

Major flooding in Cap-Haitien on January 5 creates critical situation in Haiti's second-largest city
disrupting humanitarian operations and port access.
Nord Department relatively free from gang control demonstrates that natural disasters exploit
same governance deficits enabling security crisis.
CPT issued no coordinated disaster response as of evening reinforcing institutional weakness 33
days before mandate expiration.
Flooding may displace residents adding to 1.4 million IDPs straining humanitarian systems
beyond capacity.
January 05, 2026

Cap-Haitien crisis illustrates Haiti's multidimensional vulnerabilities extending beyond gang
violence to environmental and infrastructural collapse.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International humanitarian actors should assess Cap-Haitien flooding impact on Nord Department
operations and supply chain continuity for northern aid delivery.
CARICOM and OAS should reference Cap-Haitien disaster response gaps as evidence requiring
immediate institutional continuity planning ahead of February 7.
Diaspora networks should mobilize emergency relief for Cap-Haitien residents while monitoring
displacement patterns that may affect family connections.
UN agencies should document CPT disaster response capacity or lack thereof as baseline for
post-February 7 governance assessments.
Private sector actors with Cap-Haitien port dependencies should develop contingency plans for
maritime logistics disruption.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

MAINSTREAM MEDIA FRAMES FEBRUARY 7 AS BASCULEMENT NOT TRANSITION
Radio Metropole Haiti's leading radio station broadcast a program on January 5 titled Haiti on the
brink of collapse what awaits us after February 7 2026 representing a critical shift in mainstream
media framing. The basculement language indicates that establishment media now views
February 7 as a collapse or tipping point rather than routine political transition. This framing aligns
with MOPAL's January 4 warning about a new institutional void and Jerry Tardieu's December 7
analysis that Article 6.1 prohibits CPT mandate extension requiring a replacement formula by
February 7 at midnight.
Radio Television Caraibes concurrently broadcast What transition for Haiti in 2026 featuring Victor
Benoit prominent political analyst suggesting Haiti's political class is actively debating
post-February 7 frameworks without reaching consensus. The fact that two major media outlets
dedicated prime programming to February 7 scenarios on the first business day of 2026 signals
that the deadline has moved from background concern to immediate crisis in public discourse.
Benoit's participation as respected analyst indicates that even establishment figures recognize the
January 05, 2026

constitutional deadline as operationally critical rather than theoretical.
The shift to basculement framing carries operational implications for stakeholder
expectations and behavioral patterns. When mainstream media presents February 7 as
potential collapse rather than managed transition it influences diaspora remittance
decisions investor confidence humanitarian actor positioning and gang strategic
calculations. The Crisis Group's December 15 assessment that gangs seek amnesty as
part of February 7 negotiations becomes more salient when public discourse frames the
deadline as leverage opportunity rather than routine institutional event.
With 33 days remaining the convergence of mainstream media crisis framing and continued CPT
silence on mandate extension mechanisms creates a legitimacy vacuum. CPT President
Saint-Cyr's January 1 call to avoid any drift as February 7 approaches provided no explanation of
post-February 7 governance suggesting either internal disagreement on succession planning or
deliberate ambiguity to maintain negotiating flexibility. The media's basculement language
indicates that public patience for ambiguity is exhausting as the constitutional deadline
approaches.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian media has historically oscillated between crisis and normalcy framing with establishment
outlets like Radio Metropole typically adopting cautious editorial positions during political
transitions. The explicit use of basculement language represents departure from traditional
diplomatic framing suggesting that even cautious institutional voices now view February 7 as
existential rather than procedural.



## TALKING POINTS

Radio Metropole's January 5 broadcast titled Haiti on the brink of collapse frames February 7 as
basculement not routine transition.
Concurrent Radio Television Caraibes program featuring Victor Benoit indicates political class
actively debates post-February 7 frameworks without consensus.
Basculement framing on first business day of 2026 signals deadline moved from background
concern to immediate crisis in public discourse.
Mainstream media crisis language influences stakeholder expectations including diaspora
remittances investor confidence and gang strategic positioning.
January 05, 2026

CPT maintains silence on mandate extension mechanisms 33 days before expiration creating
legitimacy vacuum as media adopts collapse narrative.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International observers should monitor Haitian media framing shifts as early indicators of public
expectations and potential destabilization triggers.
Diaspora organizations should prepare crisis communications addressing February 7 scenarios
based on mainstream media basculement framing.
Humanitarian actors should assess how collapse narratives affect operational security and staff
positioning decisions for post-February 7 period.
CARICOM and OAS should recognize that public discourse has shifted to crisis mode requiring
visible institutional continuity planning.
Private sector actors should incorporate basculement scenarios into February risk modeling
reflecting mainstream media assessments rather than optimistic projections.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

FEBRUARY 3 TPS TERMINATION CREATES COMPRESSED CRISIS TIMELINE
The Trump administration's February 3 2026 Temporary Protected Status termination affecting
350,000 Haitians creates a compressed four-day timeline before the CPT's February 7 mandate
expiration compounding Haiti's institutional crisis with diaspora deportation crisis. The Washington
Post published an editorial on January 5 calling the TPS termination cruel given Haiti's security
and humanitarian conditions. The timing suggests that early-to-mid February will see deportations
of Haitians to a country with no functioning government if the CPT expires without successor
while simultaneously disrupting remittance flows representing approximately 38 percent of Haiti's
GDP.
The February 3-7 compressed timeline creates operational challenges for international actors
attempting to manage both crises simultaneously. The OAS Roadmap Version 3's November 5
institutional continuity clause committing OAS CARICOM and UN to work with Haitian authorities
to avoid power vacuum becomes operationally critical by February 3-7 requiring international
actors to either legitimize CPT extension or negotiate replacement formula before 350,000
January 05, 2026

Haitians face deportation to an ungoverned state. The four-day window between TPS expiration
and CPT expiration provides minimal buffer for coordinated crisis management.
The Washington Post editorial reflects growing recognition among US policy observers that TPS
termination timing exacerbates rather than addresses Haiti's instability. Many TPS holders have
US-born children creating family separation scenarios while others have established businesses
and community networks over extended TPS periods dating to Haiti's 2010 earthquake. The
convergence of deportation pressure and institutional vacuum in Haiti creates conditions for
humanitarian crisis as deportees return to a country unable to provide basic services or security.
The diaspora implications extend beyond immediate deportation concerns to remittance
disruption affecting household income for millions of Haitians. With gangs controlling
approximately 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince according to MOPAL's January 4 assessment
returnees face immediate security risks in addition to economic displacement. The February 3-7
timeline compresses decision-making for Haitian families in the United States weighing voluntary
return against deportation while monitoring whether the CPT secures mandate extension or
replacement framework by February 7.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Temporary Protected Status for Haitians was initially granted following Haiti's 2010 earthquake
and has been periodically renewed based on country conditions preventing safe return. TPS
provides work authorization and deportation protection but does not create pathway to permanent
residency leaving beneficiaries in extended temporary status vulnerable to policy shifts.



## TALKING POINTS

Trump administration's February 3 TPS termination affecting 350,000 Haitians creates four-day
window before CPT February 7 mandate expiration.
Washington Post editorial calls TPS termination cruel citing Haiti's security and humanitarian
crisis creating deportation to ungoverned state scenario.
Compressed timeline affects remittance flows representing 38 percent of Haiti's GDP disrupting
household income for millions.
OAS institutional continuity clause becomes operationally critical requiring CPT extension or
replacement framework before February 3 deportations begin.
Returnees face security risks in gang-controlled territories and economic displacement in country
unable to provide basic services.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

January 05, 2026

US immigration attorneys should accelerate alternative legal status applications for TPS holders
before February 3 deadline recognizing limited time for administrative relief.
Haitian diaspora organizations should mobilize advocacy campaigns highlighting compressed
February 3-7 timeline and ungoverned state deportation risks.
International humanitarian actors should prepare reception capacity for potential returnees while
documenting conditions preventing safe return.
CARICOM and OAS should explicitly reference TPS termination in institutional continuity
negotiations as evidence requiring immediate CPT succession framework.
Haitian government officials if functional post-February 7 should coordinate with US authorities on
deportation logistics and returnee services.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official government reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

20-DAY GANG OPERATIONAL PAUSE EXTENDS BEYOND GOVERNMENT RESUMPTION
The 20-day gang operational pause from December 21 through January 5 continues with zero
major incidents reported despite government operations resuming including US Embassy
reopening and consular services restart. The continuation beyond the holiday period is
unprecedented and raises critical questions about gang strategic calculations. The pause now
extends past Christmas New Year Haitian Independence Day Ancestors Day and the extended
weekend suggesting deliberate operational discipline rather than holiday-related reduction in
violence.
The pause contradicts the Gang Suppression Force's December 31 claim of retaking territories
under gang control since MOPAL's January 4 assessment confirms gangs control quasi-totality of
Port-au-Prince Artibonite and Plateau Central. The 20-day period represents the longest
sustained absence of major gang violence in 2025 indicating gangs possess operational capacity
to suspend violence indefinitely when strategically advantageous. This capacity demonstrates
sophisticated command and control structures capable of coordinating extended operational
pauses across multiple gang formations and territories.
The strategic logic behind extending the pause beyond government resumption likely relates to
February 7 positioning. The Crisis Group's December 15 warning that gangs seek amnesty as
part of February 7 transition remains operationally relevant with gangs potentially withholding
January 05, 2026

violence as leverage for negotiations despite Prime Minister Conille's December 28 no
negotiations doctrine. The pause allows gangs to demonstrate their capacity to either enable or
disrupt governance while positioning themselves as stakeholders in post-February 7 frameworks
rather than security threats to be eliminated.
With 33 days until February 7 the operational pattern suggests violence resumption in late
January between January 20-31 as gangs escalate pressure on the CPT to negotiate amnesty
terms before the constitutional deadline. The pause demonstrates that gang violence in Haiti
operates according to strategic calculations rather than random criminality with operational
decisions tied to political timelines and negotiating leverage. The longer the pause extends the
more it reveals gang organizational sophistication and the weaker the narrative of PNH or GSF
military success becomes.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian gangs have historically demonstrated capacity for coordinated operations including the
February 29 2024 coordinated attacks that closed Toussaint Louverture Airport and the
November-December 2024 Artibonite offensive. Extended operational pauses are rare with the
20-day period representing the longest sustained reduction in major violence documented in
2025.



## TALKING POINTS

20-day gang operational pause from December 21 through January 5 continues despite
government operations resuming .
Pause extends beyond holiday period suggesting strategic discipline rather than seasonal
violence reduction.
MOPAL January 4 assessment confirms gangs control quasi-totality of Port-au-Prince
contradicting GSF claims of territorial retaking.
Pause demonstrates gang organizational capacity to suspend violence indefinitely when
strategically advantageous for February 7 positioning.
Expect violence resumption in late January as gangs escalate pressure for amnesty negotiations
before constitutional deadline.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security analysts should model gang violence resumption scenarios for late January tied to
February 7 deadline pressure rather than immediate post-holiday patterns.
Humanitarian actors should use operational pause to position critical supplies and assess
evacuation routes before anticipated late January escalation.
January 05, 2026

International observers should monitor gang public statements or proxy communications for
February 7 negotiating positions during pause period.
CPT should clarify whether operational pause reflects PNH effectiveness or gang strategic
positioning to avoid mischaracterizing security gains.
Diaspora families should complete urgent travel or document processing during pause window
before anticipated late January violence resumption.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor whether gangs resume violence on or January 6-7 ending the 20-day operational pause
or whether strategic discipline extends through mid-January. Track CPT or ministerial statements
regarding Cap-Haitien flooding response coordination as indicator of institutional capacity 33 days
before mandate expiration. Watch for additional mainstream media programming on February 7
scenarios building on Radio Metropole's basculement framing from .



## THIS WEEK

Observe whether CARICOM OAS or UN schedule emergency sessions week of January 6-10 to
operationalize institutional continuity mechanisms ahead of February 3 TPS termination and
February 7 CPT expiration. Monitor UN Security Council discussions on BINUH mandate renewal
expiring January 31 for references to post-February 7 transition planning. Track diaspora
advocacy responses to Washington Post TPS editorial and whether additional US media coverage
amplifies compressed February 3-7 timeline concerns.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

January 05, 2026

Assess whether gangs resume violence in late January January 20-31 escalating pressure
on CPT for amnesty negotiations before February 7 deadline. Monitor international actor
positioning between legitimizing CPT mandate extension and negotiating replacement
formula as February 3-7 compressed timeline approaches. Track whether mainstream
media basculement framing influences diaspora remittance patterns investor confidence
and humanitarian actor security postures creating self-fulfilling crisis dynamics.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

AlterPresse report on Cap-Haitien flooding published January 5 2026
US State Department announcement on TPS termination effective February 3 2026
Crisis Group December 15 assessment on gang amnesty negotiations
OAS Roadmap Version 3 November 5 institutional continuity clause
Washington Post editorial Ending temporary protected status for Haitians is cruel published
January 5 2026
Vant Bef Info analysis on Haiti's silence regarding Maduro arrest published January 4-5 2026
Haiti Libre monitoring for gang security incidents January 5 2026
MOPAL January 4 assessment on gang territorial control covering Port-au-Prince Artibonite
Plateau Central
Jerry Tardieu December 7 analysis on Article 6.1 CPT mandate prohibition
Prime Minister Conille December 28 statement on no negotiations doctrine
CPT President Saint-Cyr January 1 statement on avoiding drift before February 7
UNICEF December 10 report on 1.4 million internally displaced persons
January 05, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*