# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-27
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: POLITICAL MOBILIZATION ACCELERATES TOWARD](#development-1-political-mobilization-accelerates-toward)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: GANGS SHIFT TO ECONOMIC TERRORISM WITH MASS](#development-2-gangs-shift-to-economic-terrorism-with-mass)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: GOVERNMENT PROJECTS STABILITY THROUGH SYMBOLIC](#development-3-government-projects-stability-through-symbolic)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: ASYMMETRIC WARFARE CONTINUES WITH DRONE](#development-4-asymmetric-warfare-continues-with-drone)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Political pressure on the Transitional Presidential Council intensifies as MORN
announces a December 29 sit-in demanding CPT resignation with 42 days remaining
until the February 7 2026 constitutional deadline. The CPT denied allegations of
500000 to 600000 dollar departure bonuses. Security forces foiled a Tabarre market
arson attack on December 25-26 where gangs planted explosive devices from gas
cylinders targeting holiday shoppers. The government announced Champ de Mars
rehabilitation and community meetings on resident returns to project stability. A
December 24 Minoterie drone strike killed dozens of Bel Bos gang members.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

MORN announces December 29 sit-in demanding CPT resignation 42 days before
February 7 2026 mandate expiration.
PNH foiled Tabarre market arson attack using gas cylinder explosives targeting
holiday shoppers.
Government announces Champ de Mars rehabilitation projecting stability amid
ongoing crisis.
December 24 Minoterie drone strike killed dozens of gang members in asymmetric
warfare operation.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: POLITICAL MOBILIZATION ACCELERATES TOWARD

CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE
The Movement for Reconstruction and National Reconciliation announced on
December 26 that it will organize a sit-in on December 29 2025 demanding the
resignation of the Transitional Presidential Council and its government. MORN called
on the population particularly in the metropolitan area to mobilize massively to reject
renewal of the April 3 agreement and demand CPT departure. The movement framed
February 7 2026 as marking 40 years since the country has lived in total instability
and corruption since the fall of the Duvalier regime.
The CPT responded on December 27 by issuing a formal denial of allegations made
December 27, 2025

by Pierre Esperance Executive Director of the National Network for the Defense of
Human Rights who claimed CPT members were proposing departure bonuses of
500000 to 600000 dollars. The CPT stated its mission remains exclusively focused on
responsible conduct of political transition and transparent management of public
resources. The Council urged the public and media to remain vigilant against
disinformation campaigns. The denial represents defensive positioning as scrutiny
intensifies with 42 days remaining until constitutional expiration.
This marks the first major opposition mobilization announcement since the Electoral
Council published the revised electoral calendar on Christmas Day. By scheduling the
sit-in 40 days before the February 7 mandate expiration MORN aims to force a
political crisis that either compels the CPT to announce a mandate extension
framework or creates street pressure that collapses the Council before the
constitutional deadline. The timing is critical as the CPT must either announce
self-extension with no legal basis negotiate a new transitional framework with
CARICOM and the Organization of American States or expire on February 7 with no
successor triggering constitutional crisis.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The February 7 date holds dual significance as both the anniversary of Jean-Claude
Duvalier's 1986 departure and the constitutional deadline for CPT mandate expiration
creating symbolic and legal pressure points.



## TALKING POINTS

December 29 sit-in will test CPT ability to maintain order in Port-au-Prince while
addressing political demands.
CPT denial of bonus allegations enters defensive mode as public scrutiny intensifies.
42 days remain until February 7 2026 constitutional deadline with no succession
framework announced.
MORN mobilization aims to deny CPT legitimacy for any unilateral mandate
extension.
365-day constitutional gap between February 7 2026 and February 7 2027 remains
December 27, 2025

unaddressed in electoral calendar.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should convene emergency CARICOM and OAS sessions
before January 7 to address February 7 succession crisis.
CPT should issue public statement by December 31 clarifying mandate extension
legal basis or transition framework.
Security forces should prepare contingency plans for December 29 protest
management balancing assembly rights with public order.
Diplomatic missions should communicate directly with CPT and opposition on red
lines for political transition.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: GANGS SHIFT TO ECONOMIC TERRORISM WITH MASS

CASUALTY TARGETING
Security guards at the Tabarre market discovered explosive materials made from gas
cylinders hidden inside the facility on the night of December 25 to December 26 2025.
The National Police confirmed that terrorists had carefully planned the operation
intending to start a fire and reduce the market to ashes during peak holiday shopping
season. The judge of paix conducted legal inspection after PNH was alerted. The
attack was designed to kill dozens or hundreds of vendors and customers destroy
livelihoods of small merchants and terrorize the population into abandoning
commercial activity.
The foiled attack represents a strategic shift from territorial control to economic
warfare and mass casualty terrorism. Gangs targeted a commercial center during the
holiday period to maximize casualties and economic damage. This occurred two days
December 27, 2025

after the December 23 Coast Guard maritime attack on La Gonave-bound vessels
indicating gangs are expanding operational domains beyond territorial control.
Previous attacks targeted healthcare infrastructure including the December 24
General Hospital assault and December 17 Bernard Mevs Hospital incident
demonstrating multi-domain strategy.
Tabarre has been the site of repeated gang attacks in November 2025 with more than
600 people displaced following armed assaults on November 13-14. The area
remains contested territory where gangs attempt to establish presence through
violence against civilian populations. The use of explosive devices made from gas
cylinders shows tactical sophistication and intent to cause maximum destruction. The
fact that security guards discovered the materials before detonation prevented what
could have been one of the deadliest single attacks in the current crisis.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Tabarre experienced major displacement in November 2025 when armed attacks
forced more than 600 residents to flee making the market a symbolic and economic
target for gang control operations.



## TALKING POINTS

Explosive devices made from gas cylinders intended for mass casualty event during
holiday shopping.
Attack foiled by security guards demonstrating importance of private sector security
infrastructure.
Gangs expanding from territorial control to economic warfare targeting markets
hospitals and maritime routes.
Multi-domain strategy aims to make Haiti functionally ungovernable by denying state
control of critical infrastructure.
December 23 maritime attack and December 24 hospital assault show coordinated
pressure across sectors.
December 27, 2025



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Commercial centers should implement enhanced security screening and guard
protocols particularly during high-traffic periods.
PNH should deploy dedicated protection units to major markets and economic hubs in
contested areas.
Government should issue public guidance on suspicious materials and reporting
procedures for civilian detection.
International community should provide technical assistance for improvised explosive
device detection and counter-terrorism training.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: GOVERNMENT PROJECTS STABILITY THROUGH SYMBOLIC

REHABILITATION
The Prime Minister's Office announced on December 26 that the Champ de Mars is
undergoing rehabilitation and beautification work for end-of-year holidays. The
government framed the project as part of urban revitalization to reclaim symbolic
public spaces. The Primature stated the work creates a favorable environment for
organization of free and democratic elections in the near future and promotes unity
collective responsibility and respect for institutions. Prime Minister Alix Didier
Fils-Aime also held meetings with community organization leaders regarding return of
residents to Solino and Delmas 30 areas previously under gang control.
The rehabilitation coincides with the revised electoral calendar published on
Christmas Day and the December 29 MORN sit-in announcement indicating strategic
communications to project stability and control over Port-au-Prince center. The
Champ de Mars has been largely abandoned due to insecurity making its
rehabilitation symbolically significant. The government messaging links the work to
December 27, 2025

electoral preparation despite the 365-day constitutional gap between February 7 2026
and February 7 2027 that remains unaddressed in the revised calendar.
However the stability narrative conflicts with operational reality on the ground. The
December 24 Minoterie drone strike killed dozens of gang members while the
December 25-26 Tabarre market foiled attack demonstrates ongoing asymmetric
warfare and terrorist threats. The government is conducting lethal drone operations
while gangs attempt mass casualty economic attacks creating fundamental
contradiction between messaging and security environment. The Return to
Neighborhood program initiated with December 20 Solino visit by CPT President
Leslie Voltaire and other officials has not yet produced verifiable resident returns to
formerly gang-controlled areas.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Champ de Mars serves as Haiti's symbolic central square and has been site of
major political demonstrations making its rehabilitation both practical and symbolic for
government legitimacy claims.



## TALKING POINTS

Champ de Mars rehabilitation projects government control over Port-au-Prince
symbolic center.
Timing coincides with December 29 MORN sit-in suggesting strategic
communications ahead of opposition mobilization.
Government links rehabilitation to favorable environment for elections despite
constitutional gap.
Stability messaging conflicts with ongoing drone strikes and foiled mass casualty
attacks.
Return to Neighborhood program has not produced verifiable resident returns to
Solino or Delmas 30.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

December 27, 2025

Government should provide transparent metrics on resident return numbers and
security conditions in formerly controlled areas.
International observers should verify actual security improvements versus
government claims of territorial recovery.
Stakeholders should assess whether Champ de Mars work represents substantive
security gains or symbolic messaging.
CPT should clarify how current security environment supports May 19 to August 28
2026 campaign period.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: ASYMMETRIC WARFARE CONTINUES WITH DRONE

STRIKES AND SEXUAL VIOLENCE
The Haiti National Police conducted an operation in the Minoterie sector of Titanyen
on the night of December 24 2025 targeting the Bel Bos gang resulting in deaths of
several dozen presumed gang members. The operation utilized explosive drones to
target a gang celebration on Christmas Eve. This confirms the PNH ongoing
asymmetric warfare strategy using aerial platforms for lethal strikes against gang
concentrations. No official confirmation of exact casualty numbers has been released
but multiple sources reported dozens killed.
NPR and WUNC featured reporting on December 27 by Miami Herald correspondent
Jacqueline Charles documenting how gangs in Haiti use sexual violence as a tool of
terror to control communities. This aligns with the Inter-American Commission on
Human Rights statement from December 24 noting a 1000 percent increase in cases
of sexual violence against women girls and adolescents in Haiti. The systematic use
of sexual violence represents a deliberate gang strategy to terrorize populations into
submission and prevent resistance.
December 27, 2025

The combination of PNH drone strikes and gang sexual violence demonstrates the
dual nature of Haiti's security crisis. State forces conduct targeted killings through
asymmetric warfare while gangs employ systematic sexual violence as population
control mechanism. Both strategies operate outside conventional law enforcement
frameworks. The December 24 operation occurred on Christmas Eve indicating PNH
willingness to conduct lethal operations during holiday periods when gang members
may be concentrated. The lack of official casualty confirmation suggests limited
transparency in drone strike operations.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The PNH has increasingly relied on drone strikes and asymmetric tactics as
conventional policing proves ineffective against heavily armed gang coalitions
controlling significant territory.



## TALKING POINTS

December 24 Minoterie drone strike killed dozens of Bel Bos gang members during
Christmas Eve operation.
PNH conducts lethal asymmetric warfare outside conventional law enforcement
frameworks.
Gangs use sexual violence systematically as population control tool with 1000 percent
increase reported.
Both state and gang forces employ tactics that operate beyond traditional security
paradigms.
Lack of official casualty confirmation indicates limited transparency in drone
operations.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should establish framework for monitoring and documenting
drone strike operations and civilian impact.
Human rights organizations should continue documenting sexual violence cases to
support future accountability mechanisms.
December 27, 2025

Security assistance providers should clarify rules of engagement and civilian
protection standards for asymmetric operations.
CPT should issue transparency guidelines for reporting security force operations and
casualty numbers.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

December 29 MORN sit-in at Champ de Mars will test CPT ability to manage
opposition protest and determine whether security forces allow assembly or disperse
demonstrators.
Turnout levels and opposition coalition participation will indicate breadth of anti-CPT
mobilization ahead of February 7 deadline.
CPT response to RNDDH bonus allegations may emerge through official statement or
continued silence strategy.



## THIS WEEK

CPT may issue statement by December 31 addressing mandate extension legal basis
or February 7 succession framework.
Additional gang attacks on commercial or economic infrastructure may follow Tabarre
market foiled attempt.
CARICOM or OAS emergency sessions could be convened to address political crisis
timeline.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

December 27, 2025

February 7 2026 constitutional deadline approaches with 42 days remaining and no
succession framework announced.
365-day gap between February 7 2026 and February 7 2027 remains unaddressed
creating electoral calendar legitimacy crisis.
International community faces decision point on supporting CPT self-extension versus
negotiating new transitional framework.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

NPR All Things Considered feature on gang sexual violence by Jacqueline Charles
December 27 2025.
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights statement on 1000 percent increase in
sexual violence cases December 24 2025.
ReliefWeb Emergency Tracking Tool data on Tabarre displacement November 2025.
Le Nouvelliste ongoing coverage of Port-au-Prince security developments December
2025.
Haiti Libre reporting on Tabarre market arson attempt and CPT denial of bonus
allegations December 26-27 2025.
Vant Bef Info coverage of Tabarre explosive materials discovery and Minoterie drone
strike December 26 2025.
Le National article on MORN December 29 sit-in announcement December 27 2025.
Haiti24 reports on Champ de Mars rehabilitation and community meetings December
26-27 2025.
Primature official communications on Champ de Mars beautification and Return to
Neighborhood program December 26 2025.
Le Quotidien coverage of Tabarre market security response December 2025.
Gazette Haiti reporting on CPT denial of departure bonus allegations December 27
2025.
Haiti National Police official statements through DICOP on Tabarre market
investigation December 2025.
December 27, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*