# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-25
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 10

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Provisional Electoral Council entered its fourth consecutive day of silence on the
candidate list publication originally scheduled for December 22 making the December
26 campaign period start formally impossible and collapsing the entire August 30
2026 electoral timeline. The National Police announced enhanced security measures
on December 23 contributing to a Christmas Day operational pause with zero
reported incidents as of late afternoon though this follows the December 24 General
Hospital attack that killed multiple journalists and one officer. The police honored
children of fallen officers on Christmas Eve while Haitian bishops issued calls for hope
amid crisis and US travel restrictions forced NGO event cancellations reducing
international humanitarian presence.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

CEP candidate list now 96 plus hours overdue with zero official explanation through
Christmas Day making December 26 campaign start impossible tomorrow.
National Police Christmas Day operational pause represents temporary relief not
strategic success following December 24 hospital attack.
44 days remain until February 7 2027 CPT mandate expiration with no constitutional
extension mechanism.
US travel restrictions effective January 1 2026 forcing NGO withdrawals and
humanitarian event cancellations.
August 30 2026 electoral timeline officially dead requiring immediate announcement
of revised calendar or admission of process failure.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

The 96 Hour Electoral Silence and Constitutional Countdown
The Provisional Electoral Council has now maintained complete silence for 96
consecutive hours from December 22 through Christmas Day December 25 without
publishing the final candidate list or issuing any explanatory statement. This delay
makes the December 26 campaign period start scheduled for tomorrow formally
December 25, 2025

impossible even if the list were published immediately because candidates require
weeks of preparation including rally organization logistics coordination security
arrangements and media purchasing. The entire August 30 2026 electoral timeline
has now collapsed beyond salvage even with emergency intervention.
The US Charge d'Affaires statement on December 23 urging the government to make
2026 an electoral year rather than specifically referencing the August 30 date
confirms that international actors have accepted the timeline must be revised.
However no mechanism exists to revise the electoral calendar without addressing the
constitutional crisis created by the February 7 2027 Transitional Presidential Council
mandate expiration now just 44 days away. The CPT possesses no legal authority to
extend its own mandate yet without a published candidate list and viable electoral
process no legitimate successor can take office on the constitutional deadline.
The government silence extends beyond the CEP with no statements from the CPT or
Prime Minister Fils Aime and no intervention from the Organization of American
States United Nations or CARICOM. The Christmas holiday likely delays any official
response until December 26 or 27 but the fundamental constitutional paradox remains
unresolved. Haiti faces a scenario where the transitional government expires without
elections having occurred and without any legal framework for what follows.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has experienced repeated electoral delays throughout its transitional periods but
the current 96 hour silence with a constitutional deadline just 44 days away
represents an unprecedented convergence of electoral collapse and governance
crisis without any established legal mechanism for resolution.



## TALKING POINTS

The December 26 campaign period start is now formally impossible making the
August 30 2026 electoral timeline officially dead.
No legal mechanism exists to extend the CPT mandate beyond February 7 2027
creating constitutional vacuum risk.
December 25, 2025

96 consecutive hours of CEP silence without explanation represents complete
institutional breakdown on electoral administration.
International community acceptance of timeline revision confirmed by US diplomatic
language shift from specific date to general year.
Government must announce revised electoral calendar immediately or publicly
acknowledge process failure.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

CARICOM and OAS must convene emergency sessions during the week of
December 30 to January 3 to negotiate extra constitutional transitional framework.
CPT should issue public statement by December 27 acknowledging electoral timeline
collapse and outlining revised calendar parameters.
International community should establish electoral technical assistance mission to
support CEP capacity and credibility restoration.
Civil society organizations should demand transparency on electoral delay causes
and timeline revision rationale.
Diaspora stakeholders should pressure international partners for concrete
accountability mechanisms on electoral commitments.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

Christmas Operational Pause and Security Theater
The National Police announced reinforced security measures on December 23 for end
of year festivities deploying full personnel mobilization across the national territory
with enhanced presence in sensitive areas and prevention focused operations
spanning December 24 through January 1. Christmas Day December 25 saw zero
December 25, 2025

new security incidents reported as of late afternoon suggesting partial effectiveness
of the enhanced deployment. However this operational pause must be understood
against the December 24 General Hospital attack that killed multiple journalists and
one police officer demonstrating that full mobilization does not prevent high casualty
incidents in gang controlled territory.
The Christmas Day pause likely reflects multiple factors including the holiday effect
reducing gang operations on a religious observance the deterrent impact of visible
police deployment and potential gang operational pause following the high profile
hospital attack. The pattern shows zero incidents on December 21 and 22 followed by
a Coast Guard maritime attack on December 23 the devastating hospital assault on
December 24 and then the Christmas pause. This suggests gangs maintain
operational initiative choosing when to strike rather than being strategically
constrained by police presence.
The National Police retains tactical capability to secure specific areas during focused
operations but lacks the force strength and territorial control necessary to sustain
security gains. With gangs controlling an estimated 80 percent of Port au Prince
metropolitan area and the police having lost more than 30 officers in 2025 alone the
security situation remains fundamentally unchanged despite periodic operational
pauses. The Christmas measures represent crisis management not strategic success.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has experienced brief security pauses during major holidays and religious
observances throughout the current gang crisis but these pauses have consistently
proven temporary with violence resuming within 24 to 48 hours as operational
dynamics return to baseline patterns.



## TALKING POINTS

Christmas Day zero incident count represents temporary pause not strategic security
improvement.
December 24 hospital attack killing journalists and police occurred despite full
December 25, 2025

mobilization announcement.
Gangs maintain operational initiative choosing timing and targets rather than being
strategically constrained.
Police force continues hemorrhaging personnel with 30 plus officers killed in 2025
against backdrop of 80 percent gang territorial control.
Enhanced holiday measures constitute reactive crisis management not proactive
territorial recovery strategy.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security analysts should monitor December 26 and 27 for violence resumption as
operational pause likely ends.
International community should press for concrete Gang Suppression Force
deployment timeline rather than continued delay.
Government must publish transparent casualty statistics for both police and civilian
populations to enable accurate threat assessment.
Media organizations should implement enhanced security protocols given December
24 journalist killings during hospital attack.
Humanitarian organizations should leverage operational pause to accelerate
assistance delivery before expected violence resumption.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

Human Toll and the Institutional Messaging Gap
The National Police organized a special Christmas Eve event on December 24
honoring children of police officers killed in combat with activities including games
dances festive meals and gift distribution attended by PNH High Command. Acting
December 25, 2025

Commander Vladimir Paraison delivered remarks acknowledging the profound loss
these children have experienced stating that the police wanted to share human
warmth with those whose fathers will never again cross the threshold on December
25. This event highlights the unsustainable human cost of the current security strategy
with more than 30 officers killed in 2025 leaving hundreds of children without fathers
amid ongoing gang violence.
The Haitian bishops issued a Christmas message on December 8 stressing that
Christ's birth can be a source of hope and calling for peace and change amid
unprecedented gang violence humanitarian crisis and political uncertainty. The
Church remains one of the few institutional voices consistently calling for peace while
possessing the moral authority to convene dialogue across polarized political factions.
However the gap between institutional messaging calling for hope and peace and
ground reality showing continued violence electoral collapse and governance crisis
reveals the disconnect between aspirational statements and operational capacity to
deliver change.
This institutional messaging gap extends to international humanitarian engagement
with US travel restrictions expanding on January 1 2026 forcing organizations like For
Haiti with Love to cancel their annual children's Christmas party due to flight operation
uncertainty. The cancellation represents the broader pattern of NGO withdrawals and
reduced international presence precisely when Haiti needs maximum humanitarian
engagement. Religious groups including Catholic and Protestant missions continue
striving to celebrate Christmas and provide services to displaced populations but
operate under severe constraints with diminishing resources and escalating insecurity.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Haitian Catholic Church has historically played a mediating role during political
crises including the 1986 departure of Jean Claude Duvalier but current gang
territorial control and governance collapse limit institutional capacity to convene
effective dialogue or deliver concrete security improvements.
December 25, 2025



## TALKING POINTS

More than 30 police officers killed in 2025 leaving hundreds of children without fathers
amid unsustainable security strategy.
Bishops Christmas message calling for hope and peace highlights disconnect
between aspirational messaging and operational reality.
US travel restrictions effective January 1 2026 forcing NGO event cancellations and
reducing humanitarian presence.
Government maintains silence on electoral collapse constitutional crisis and security
strategy despite institutional calls for change.
Religious institutions provide moral leadership but lack operational capacity to deliver
territorial security or governance stability.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International donors should establish targeted support fund for families of fallen
security personnel to address human toll.
Religious institutions should convene inter faith dialogue on humanitarian priorities
and community protection strategies.
NGOs should coordinate advocacy campaign against US travel restriction expansion
given humanitarian access implications.
Government should issue comprehensive statement addressing institutional concerns
raised by bishops and civil society.
Diaspora organizations should increase direct assistance to religious groups
maintaining ground presence amid international withdrawal.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

December 25, 2025



## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Will the CEP issue any statement on December 26 acknowledging the candidate list
delay or will institutional silence continue into the weekend. The missed campaign
period start becomes formally acknowledged tomorrow creating pressure for
government response. Monitor for violence resumption on December 26 and 27 as
the Christmas operational pause likely ends and gang operations return to baseline
patterns.



## THIS WEEK

Will the government announce a revised electoral calendar between December 27
and 31 or will the New Year arrive without clarity on 2026 elections. Watch for any
CARICOM or OAS movement toward emergency sessions during the December 30 to
January 3 period to address the February 7 constitutional crisis. Monitor NGO and
humanitarian organization announcements regarding program adjustments ahead of
January 1 US travel restriction implementation.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

The February 7 2027 constitutional deadline approaches with 44 days remaining and
no viable succession plan electoral timeline or legal extension mechanism. The
convergence of electoral collapse governance crisis and humanitarian isolation
creates conditions for potential extra constitutional intervention or prolonged
institutional vacuum. International community faces decision point on whether to
support revised electoral timeline negotiate transitional framework extension or
prepare for governance breakdown scenarios.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Vant Bef Info PNH Christmas Security Measures December 23 2025
Foreign Policy Association Haiti Christmas Security Analysis December 2025
Haiti 24 CEP Electoral Calendar Announcement November 2025
Haiti Libre CEP Official Calendar Report December 2025
Haiti Libre PNH Children of Fallen Officers Event December 25 2025
Embassy of Haiti Washington Holiday Closure Notice December 2025
US Embassy Port au Prince Security Alerts December 2025
December 25, 2025

ACLED Haiti Conflict Data December 2025
United Nations Haiti Situation Reports December 2025
Reuters Haiti Political Coverage December 2025
Le Nouvelliste Haiti Daily Reporting December 2025
Provisional Electoral Council Official Website December 2025
December 25, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*