# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-18
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH LAUNCHES OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN EMBASSY PERIMETER](#development-1-pnh-launches-offensive-operations-in-embassy-perimeter)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: UN WARNS HAITI BECOMING CENTRAL DRUG TRAFFICKING HUB WITH](#development-2-un-warns-haiti-becoming-central-drug-trafficking-hub-with)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: CPJ EXPOSES SECRET BUDGET AND GOVERNANCE TRANSPARENCY](#development-3-cpj-exposes-secret-budget-and-governance-transparency)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: CONTESTATION PERIOD ENDS WITH CANDIDATE LIST PUBLICATION](#development-4-contestation-period-ends-with-candidate-list-publication)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The US Embassy issued a security alert documenting PNH offensive operations in Pernier, Torcel,
and Croix-des-Bouquets with heavy gunfire and route blockades marking the second government
offensive in four days. The UN warned that Haiti is rapidly becoming a central hub for drug trafficking
with record 1,045 kilogram cocaine seizure in July and 1,156 kilograms traced to Belgium confirming
transnational criminal networks now operate through Haitian gang infrastructure. The Committee to
Protect Journalists revealed the government passed its budget in secret without publication
undermining electoral financial transparency prerequisites. The contestation period ends tomorrow
with final candidate list publication December 22 representing the definitive moment for electoral
viability assessment.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

PNH conducting offensive operations south of US Embassy in Pernier, Torcel, Croix-des-Bouquets
with Rue des Freres blocked and heavy gunfire reported.
UN issued critical warning that Haiti rapidly becoming central drug transshipment hub with over two
tonnes cocaine seized in 2025 and guns-for-drugs trade documented with Jamaica.
CPJ report exposes government passed budget in secret without publication violating constitutional
transparency requirements and undermining electoral process financial prerequisites.
Contestation period ends December 19 with final candidate list publication December 22
determining whether August 30 elections remain viable.
GSF deployment timeline remains June 2026 per UN assessment with operational capacity
questions unresolved.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH LAUNCHES OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN EMBASSY PERIMETER

ZONE
The US Embassy Port-au-Prince issued a security alert December 18 documenting ongoing PNH
security operations south of the embassy in Pernier, Torcel, and Croix-des-Bouquets with heavy
gunfire and explosions reported throughout the operational zone. The PNH blocked key routes
between the embassy and Petion-Ville including Rue des Freres with traffic congestion reported
across the tactical perimeter. The embassy remained open for emergency services only with US
citizens advised to avoid the operational area until further notice. This represents the second
documented PNH offensive operation in four days following the December 15 repelling of gang
attacks against Albert Schweitzer Hospital in Verette marking a potential strategic shift from
defensive posture to offensive operations.
The operational significance centers on the geographic positioning of the three target zones which
form a defensive arc south of the US Embassy in Tabarre creating a buffer zone between embassy
December 18, 2025

facilities and gang-controlled territories in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. The fact that the PNH is
blocking major thoroughfares including Rue des Freres rather than responding to gang incursions
suggests this is a deliberate government-initiated operation rather than a reactive defensive action.
The operational tempo of two major PNH offensives within four days represents an unprecedented
escalation in government military activity since the Gang Suppression Force deployment began in
late 2024. Intelligence analysts note this operational tempo suggests either active GSF operational
support is now materializing or the government has independently shifted from strategic
non-intervention to targeted offensive operations in critical infrastructure protection zones.
The timing of this operation coinciding with the December 19 contestation period deadline and
December 22 candidate list publication creates strategic complications for electoral process
credibility. If the PNH offensive in Pernier, Torcel, and Croix-des-Bouquets succeeds in establishing
government control over these strategic corridors the operational success could provide momentum
for the electoral calendar by demonstrating state capacity for territorial control. However if the
operation fails or results in prolonged urban combat the resulting instability could undermine
electoral legitimacy by demonstrating continued government inability to establish basic security
conditions necessary for democratic processes. The proximity of operations to the US Embassy
raises questions about American coordination or support for the offensive given the strategic
importance of embassy security to US policy interests in Haiti.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Pernier, Torcel, and Croix-des-Bouquets corridor has functioned as a contested buffer zone
between gang-controlled Port-au-Prince neighborhoods and government-held areas in Tabarre and
Petion-Ville since the February 2024 gang uprising that triggered the transitional government
formation. Previous PNH operations in this corridor have been primarily defensive with limited
territorial control objectives.



## TALKING POINTS

PNH launched offensive operations south of US Embassy in Pernier, Torcel, and
Croix-des-Bouquets with heavy gunfire and route blockades documented .
This represents second major PNH offensive in four days following Albert Schweitzer Hospital
defense December 15 suggesting operational tempo increase.
Geographic positioning of operations creates defensive buffer zone between US Embassy facilities
and gang-controlled metropolitan Port-au-Prince territories.
PNH blocking major routes including Rue des Freres indicates deliberate government-initiated
operation rather than reactive defensive posture.
Operational timing coincides with December 19 contestation deadline and December 22 candidate
list publication creating strategic electoral implications.
December 18, 2025

US Embassy remained open for emergency services only with citizens advised to avoid operational
zone pending security clearance.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Monitor operational duration through weekend to determine if this represents sustained offensive
campaign or limited tactical operation.
Assess GSF operational involvement through intelligence channels to determine if international
force is now actively supporting PNH operations.
Evaluate territorial control outcomes by December 22 to determine if operation successfully
established government authority in strategic corridor.
Coordinate with US Embassy security officials to determine American involvement or support for
operation given proximity to embassy facilities.
Prepare contingency electoral security assessments if operation fails or results in prolonged urban
combat undermining December 22 candidate list credibility.
Track civilian casualty reports given CPJ documentation of previous drone strike casualties including
eight children killed in September operation.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: UN WARNS HAITI BECOMING CENTRAL DRUG TRAFFICKING HUB WITH

RECORD SEIZURES
The United Nations issued a critical warning December 18 that Haiti is rapidly becoming a central
hub for drug trafficking with record cocaine seizures in 2025 confirming the transformation of Haitian
gang structures from localized extortion operations to transnational criminal networks. The July 2025
seizure of 1,045 kilograms of cocaine near Ile de la Tortue on the northern coast represented the
largest drug bust in Haiti in over thirty years with drugs originating in South America and destined for
Caribbean and United States markets. The August 2025 seizure of 1,156 kilograms of cocaine in
Antwerp Belgium traced back to Haiti confirmed trafficking routes now extend from Haitian territory
to Western European markets demonstrating the international scope of gang criminal operations.
The UN assessment documents that gangs have entrenched themselves along key transit routes in
and out of Port-au-Prince and along the Dominican Republic border using these corridors not only
December 18, 2025

for drug smuggling but also for weapons and migrant trafficking with some gangs reportedly
extorting tolls from boats and conducting armed robberies at sea. Intelligence from Jamaica links
firearms seizures to a guns-for-drugs trade involving Haitian gangs with cannabis seizures including
426 kilograms confiscated in Petite-Anse near Cap-Haitien in July and 1,350 kilograms seized from
two Haitian nationals arrested in Jamaica in July demonstrating the bidirectional nature of trafficking
operations. The UN noted that traffickers involved in the cocaine shipment included Bahamian and
Jamaican nationals underscoring the presence of regional actors collaborating with Haitian
counterparts to establish multinational trafficking networks operating through Haitian territory.
The strategic implications of Haiti's transformation into a drug transshipment hub extend beyond
domestic security concerns to regional counter-narcotics operations that will likely escalate in 2026
potentially disrupting humanitarian access and complicating electoral security requirements. The fact
that gangs now control not only urban territories but also maritime transit routes and border crossing
points means international counter-narcotics operations will require coordination between Haitian
government forces, GSF units, United States Drug Enforcement Administration assets, and regional
Caribbean security forces. This multi-jurisdictional operational requirement creates command and
control complexities that could undermine both security operations effectiveness and humanitarian
access to populations in gang-controlled territories. The guns-for-drugs trade with Jamaica
documented by UN intelligence suggests weapons flowing into Haiti through trafficking networks will
continue regardless of international arms embargo efforts making gang rearmament a perpetual
challenge.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has historically served as a minor transshipment point for Caribbean cocaine trafficking but
remained a tertiary route compared to primary corridors through Central America and Mexico. The
collapse of state territorial control since February 2024 transformed gang operations from localized
protection rackets to transnational criminal enterprises with international trafficking partnerships.



## TALKING POINTS

UN issued critical warning that Haiti rapidly becoming central hub for drug trafficking with record
seizures confirming transnational criminal networks.
July 2025 seizure of 1,045 kilograms cocaine near Ile de la Tortue represents largest drug bust in
Haiti in thirty years.
August 2025 seizure of 1,156 kilograms cocaine in Belgium traced to Haiti confirms trafficking routes
extend to Western European markets.
Gangs control transit routes in Port-au-Prince and along Dominican border using corridors for drugs,
weapons, and migrant trafficking.
Guns-for-drugs trade with Jamaica documented with 1,350 kilograms cannabis seized from Haitian
December 18, 2025

nationals arrested in Jamaica in July.
Bahamian and Jamaican nationals involved in cocaine trafficking operations demonstrating regional
criminal collaboration with Haitian gangs.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Anticipate escalation of international counter-narcotics operations in 2026 requiring coordination
between Haitian forces, GSF, DEA, and Caribbean security assets.
Assess humanitarian access implications as counter-narcotics operations could restrict movement in
gang-controlled territories where civilian populations require aid.
Monitor maritime trafficking routes as gangs now control coastal transit points requiring naval
interdiction capabilities beyond Haiti domestic capacity.
Evaluate border security with Dominican Republic as UN assessment confirms gangs control key
crossing points for drugs, weapons, and migrant flows.
Prepare for perpetual gang rearmament challenges as guns-for-drugs trade ensures weapons
continue flowing into Haiti regardless of embargo efforts.
Coordinate intelligence sharing with Jamaica and Bahamas given documented involvement of
regional nationals in Haitian trafficking networks.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: CPJ EXPOSES SECRET BUDGET AND GOVERNANCE TRANSPARENCY

CRISIS
The Committee to Protect Journalists released a comprehensive report December 15 titled A Fight
for Government Transparency Amid Haiti's Insecurity documenting systemic government hostility
toward media oversight and constitutional violations including the passage of the national budget in
secret without publication. The CPJ assessment reveals media outlets filed complaints that the
interim government displayed a lack of transparency in efforts to hold the country together including
failure to publish its budget passed in secret as well as controversial hiring of foreign military
contractors who used armed drones to battle gangs. The public ombudsman Jean Wilner Morin
challenged Prime Minister Fils-Aime in early December over deteriorating security in Artibonite
communities after the government failed to address the Pont-Sonde massacre demonstrating
institutional resistance to executive accountability.
December 18, 2025

The revelation that the government passed its budget in secret without publication constitutes a
constitutional violation that directly undermines one of three electoral process prerequisites
established by the Provisional Electoral Council. The CEP determined elections require security
conditions permitting voter access, institutional capacity for electoral administration, and necessary
financial resources to conduct voting operations. If the government refuses to disclose how public
funds are allocated the CEP cannot demonstrate it possesses necessary financial resources to
conduct credible elections on August 30 2026. This transparency failure creates legal grounds for
opposition figures to challenge electoral legitimacy before voting occurs effectively providing a
constitutional justification for boycott strategies that would delegitimize the transitional process.
The CPJ report also disclosed that government drone strikes against gangs resulted in civilian
casualties including eight children killed at a birthday party in September raising urgent questions
about rules of engagement and oversight mechanisms for military contractors operating armed
drones in urban environments. The CPJ documented journalist intimidation with reporters stating
government officials told them to stop doing propaganda for gangs and only broadcast government
propaganda demonstrating systematic suppression of independent media coverage. The report
notes the United Nations backed deployment of a 5,000-strong Gang Suppression Force but officials
do not expect it to be operational before June 2026 confirming previous intelligence assessments
that GSF deployment remains incomplete with operational capacity questions unresolved. The
combination of budget secrecy, civilian casualty coverups, and media intimidation suggests the
transitional government operates with minimal accountability constraints despite constitutional
requirements for transparency.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's constitution requires budget publication and parliamentary oversight of public expenditures
with historical precedents demonstrating budget secrecy typically precedes authoritarian
governance periods. The transitional government operates without a functioning parliament creating
structural accountability deficits that enable executive discretion without legislative checks.



## TALKING POINTS

CPJ report reveals government passed national budget in secret without publication violating
constitutional transparency requirements.
Budget secrecy undermines CEP electoral prerequisite that government possess necessary
financial resources creating legal grounds for opposition boycott.
Government drone strikes killed eight children at birthday party in September with civilian casualties
previously unreported in this detail.
Journalists report government officials demanded they stop gang coverage and only broadcast
government propaganda demonstrating systematic media suppression.
December 18, 2025

Public ombudsman challenged Prime Minister Fils-Aime over Pont-Sonde massacre response
demonstrating institutional resistance to executive accountability.
UN officials confirm GSF will not be operational before June 2026 validating previous assessments
of deployment timeline delays.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Demand immediate budget publication as prerequisite for electoral legitimacy given CEP
requirement for demonstrated financial resources.
Investigate rules of engagement for military contractors operating armed drones following eight child
deaths in September birthday party strike.
Establish independent media access protections to prevent systematic government suppression of
coverage documenting civilian impact.
Assess legal grounds for opposition boycott strategies based on constitutional budget transparency
violations.
Monitor public ombudsman challenges to executive authority as indicator of institutional resistance
to accountability constraints.
Prepare for GSF operational capacity remaining limited through June 2026 requiring continued
reliance on PNH forces for security operations.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: CONTESTATION PERIOD ENDS WITH CANDIDATE LIST PUBLICATION

The contestation period for candidate registrations ends December 19 with the Provisional Electoral
Council scheduled to publish the final candidate list December 22 representing the definitive
moment for assessing whether major opposition figures registered or implemented boycott
strategies that would delegitimize the August 30 2026 electoral process. The December 22
publication date occurs four days from today creating immediate timeline pressure for stakeholders
monitoring electoral viability indicators. If major opposition leaders including former senators,
prominent civil society figures, or diaspora political networks failed to register the resulting candidate
pool would lack credibility among constituencies critical to electoral legitimacy.
December 18, 2025

The contestation period mechanism allows political actors to challenge candidate eligibility
based on constitutional requirements, criminal record disqualifications, or documentation
irregularities providing legal pathways for eliminating rivals from competition. Historical
precedent from previous Haitian electoral cycles demonstrates contestation processes
frequently become politicized with frivolous challenges filed to delay or disrupt candidate
registration timelines. The CEP's capacity to adjudicate challenges fairly while meeting the
December 22 publication deadline will serve as a critical test of institutional electoral
administration capability. If the CEP fails to publish on schedule or produces a candidate list
riddled with unresolved disputes the resulting credibility damage could undermine
international community confidence in the transitional electoral process.
The strategic significance of the December 22 publication extends beyond immediate candidate list
assessment to broader questions about whether Haiti's constitutional timeline pressures remain
viable given intersecting security, governance, and drug trafficking crises documented in concurrent
developments. The Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires February 7 2027 creating a
fourteen month window from today for completing electoral processes including campaigning, voting,
runoff elections if required, result certification, and power transfer to elected authorities. If the
December 22 candidate list reveals widespread opposition boycott or if major figures successfully
challenged on technical grounds the resulting electoral legitimacy crisis could force reconsideration
of the entire August 30 2026 timeline requiring either mandate extension beyond February 7 2027 or
acceptance that Haiti will miss its constitutional deadline for democratic restoration.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's electoral contestation mechanisms have historically been manipulated for political purposes
with the 1990 and 2010 electoral cycles demonstrating how frivolous challenges can delay
candidate list publications and undermine process credibility. The current CEP operates without
historical precedent for conducting elections amid active gang territorial control of major urban
areas.



## TALKING POINTS

Contestation period ends December 19 with final candidate list publication scheduled December 22.
December 22 represents definitive moment for assessing whether major opposition figures
registered or implemented boycott strategies.
CEP must adjudicate eligibility challenges while meeting publication deadline testing institutional
electoral administration capacity.
December 18, 2025

Failure to publish on schedule or producing disputed candidate list could undermine
international confidence in transitional process.
Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires February 7 2027 creating fourteen month window
for completing all electoral processes.
Widespread opposition boycott or technical disqualifications could force reconsideration of August
30 2026 timeline viability.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Monitor contestation challenge filings through to identify patterns of frivolous disputes designed to
delay publication.
Assess December 22 candidate list for major opposition figure participation determining whether
boycott strategies materialized.
Evaluate CEP institutional capacity based on ability to meet publication deadline while fairly
adjudicating eligibility disputes.
Prepare contingency timeline assessments if December 22 list reveals electoral legitimacy crisis
requiring reconsideration of August 30 date.
Coordinate with international community stakeholders to establish consensus red lines for
acceptable versus unacceptable candidate list outcomes.
Track whether budget secrecy and governance transparency failures documented in concurrent
developments influence opposition participation decisions.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Contestation period concludes December 19 with final eligibility challenges determining whether
major disputes will delay December 22 publication. PNH operations in Pernier, Torcel, and
Croix-des-Bouquets continue with operational duration indicating whether this represents sustained
December 18, 2025

offensive or limited tactical action. US Embassy security posture remains elevated with route
blockades potentially extending through weekend if combat operations persist.



## THIS WEEK

Final candidate list publication December 22 represents critical decision point determining electoral
process viability based on opposition participation levels. PNH offensive outcomes in embassy
perimeter zone will demonstrate whether government capacity for territorial control increased or
whether gang resistance negates offensive operations. International counter-narcotics coordination
discussions likely accelerate following UN drug trafficking hub warning requiring policy decisions on
maritime interdiction and border security operations.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Gang Suppression Force operational capacity remains limited through June 2026 per UN
assessment requiring continued reliance on PNH forces with uncertain sustainability. Budget
transparency crisis creates legal grounds for opposition boycott potentially delegitimizing August 30
elections before campaigning begins. Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires February 7
2027 with fourteen month window creating compounding timeline pressures if December 22
candidate list reveals electoral legitimacy deficits. Drug trafficking hub status triggers regional
counter-narcotics escalation potentially disrupting humanitarian access and complicating electoral
security requirements throughout 2026.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Haiti Drug Trafficking Assessment December 18 2025
Safety4Sea Maritime Security Report UN Raises Alarm as Haiti Emerges as Key Drug
Transshipment Hub December 2025
US Embassy Port-au-Prince Security Alert December 18 2025
OSAC Haiti Country Security Report December 18 2025
OCCRP Investigation UN Sounds Alarm on Haiti Growing Role in Global Drug Trade December
2025
Committee to Protect Journalists Special Report A Fight for Government Transparency Amid Haiti
Insecurity December 15 2025
Crisis Group Latin America Report 110 Undoing Haiti Deadly Gang Alliance December 2025
HaitiLibre CEP Official Calendar of Upcoming Elections December 2025
Human Rights Watch World Report 2025 Haiti Country Chapter December 2025
ReliefWeb ACLED Regional Overview Latin America and Caribbean December 2025
Le Nouvelliste CEP Sets General Elections for August 30 2026 November 2025
UNODC Frontpage UNODC Equips Haiti Against Organized Crime December 2025
December 18, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*