# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-21
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH OPERATIONAL ESCALATION: KENSCOFF AND](#development-1-pnh-operational-escalation-kenscoff-and)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: GOVERNANCE VACUUM: FILS-AIME UNDER EDITORIAL](#development-2-governance-vacuum-fils-aime-under-editorial)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: DISPLACEMENT CRISIS: IOM JANUARY REPORT AND](#development-3-displacement-crisis-iom-january-report-and)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: INFRASTRUCTURE SABOTAGE AND WATER CONTAMINATION](#development-4-infrastructure-sabotage-and-water-contamination)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti's security environment recorded a significant tactical gain on February 20-21 as
PNH's "Operasyon San Kanpe" killed 16 gang members in Kenscoff while 150
additional officers with two armored vehicles reinforced Cap-Haïtien against resurgent
insecurity in the North. These operational advances coincide with accelerating
governance pressure: Le Nouvelliste published the first major editorial indicting PM
Fils-Aime for inaction since February 7, as IOM confirmed 1.4 million internally
displaced persons with 23,000 expelled in January alone. The Dominican Republic's
arrest of 1,135 Haitians in a single 24-hour window on February 19 signals intensifying
bilateral pressure on an already overwhelmed displacement system.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

PNH killed 16 gang members overnight in Kenscoff under "Operasyon San Kanpe"
continuing offensive operations.
IOM January 2026 report confirms 1.4 million IDPs with 23,000 new displacements in
January alone.
Dominican Republic arrested 1,135 Haitians in 24 hours on February 19 compressing
displacement corridors further.
Le Nouvelliste editorial marks the first significant mainstream media critique of PM
Fils-Aime's post-February 7 inaction.
H-TAC Morne-Casse tactical center launched its first 3-week training cycle with 30
police officers.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH OPERATIONAL ESCALATION: KENSCOFF AND

CAP-HAÏTIEN
The Police Nationale d'Haiti executed a major overnight operation in Kenscoff on
February 20-21, eliminating 16 gang members under the sustained "Operasyon San
Kanpe" campaign. The Kenscoff heights represent a strategically sensitive zone
controlling access routes between the southern periphery and Port-au-Prince's
upmarket residential districts, including Petionville. A successful PNH foothold there, if
consolidated, would meaningfully constrain gang mobility between the capital's
southern ring and the Carrefour-Martissant corridor.
Simultaneously, authorities deployed 150 reinforcement officers alongside two armored
February 21, 2026

vehicles to Cap-Haïtien in response to a declared resurgence of insecurity in the North.
This dual-front operational tempo -- southern heights and the northern economic hub
simultaneously -- reflects either a deliberate nationwide pressure strategy or a reactive
posture stretched thin across multiple fronts. The distinction matters: a deliberate
strategy implies coordination capacity, while a reactive posture implies the PNH is
running behind developing gang vectors.
The H-TAC Morne-Casse tactical center began its inaugural 3-week training cycle with
30 officers, providing the first institutional evidence that Haiti's security capacity-building
pipeline is generating throughput. Thirty officers per cycle remains a marginal output
against gang forces numbering in the thousands, but the cycle's launch establishes a
reference point for tracking acceleration or stagnation in force generation.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

PNH has operated under severe resource constraints since the 2021 assassination of
President Moise, with gang territorial control expanding dramatically through
2023-2024. The MSS Kenya-led multinational mission was authorized specifically to
provide operational backstop and capacity building that PNH could not self-generate.



## TALKING POINTS

Kenscoff operation represents a concrete tactical gain in a zone directly relevant to
Port-au-Prince access control.
Cap-Haïtien reinforcement signals institutional awareness that northern insecurity can
no longer be treated as secondary.
H-TAC throughput of 30 officers per 3-week cycle requires significant scaling to
approach meaningful force generation.
Simultaneous north-south operations test whether PNH command and logistics can
sustain multi-front tempo.
MSS coordination role in either operation has not been confirmed and should be
tracked explicitly.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International security partners should request immediate confirmation of MSS
involvement and coordination protocols in both operations.
February 21, 2026

NGOs operating in Kenscoff and Petionville corridors should reassess access routes
given active operational conditions.
H-TAC training pipeline should be benchmarked against agreed targets in MSS
mandate documentation.
Business operators in Cap-Haïtien should verify armored vehicle deployment
perimeters before scheduling logistics movements.
Diplomatic missions should request PNH operational brief to distinguish deliberate
strategy from reactive posture.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: GOVERNANCE VACUUM: FILS-AIME UNDER EDITORIAL

PRESSURE
Le Nouvelliste, Haiti's principal French-language daily and the country's most
authoritative mainstream press institution, published an editorial on or around February
20-21 directly criticizing Prime Minister Alix Fils-Aime for delivering nothing of
substance since February 7. The critique targets three domains simultaneously: failure
to address gang territorial expansion, absence of government reshuffling to signal
renewed political direction, and inaction on governance structures whose mandate
transition created an expectation of recalibration.
The editorial's significance extends beyond its content. Le Nouvelliste does not
routinely editorialize against sitting prime ministers in operational terms. Its decision to
do so at this juncture -- two weeks after the CPT's formal mandate transition date --
represents a threshold crossing in elite media tolerance for executive inertia. When
Port-au-Prince's editorial establishment breaks from institutional patience, it typically
precedes or accompanies broader political repositioning among parties and civil
society.
For international stakeholders, the editorial creates a new reference point. Statements
and press contacts for PM Fils-Aime's office will now be measured against Le
Nouvelliste's public accountability frame. Donors and diplomatic partners who have
February 21, 2026

been providing the government operational latitude during the post-February 7
adjustment period may face increasing pressure from civil society interlocutors to
harden conditionality.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's post-Moise transition period has been characterized by recurring prime
ministerial instability, with multiple governments failing to consolidate authority before
CPT-level disputes undermined their operational coherence. Fils-Aime assumed the
role under the CPT framework whose mandate structure itself remains contested.



## TALKING POINTS

Le Nouvelliste's editorial critique marks the first significant mainstream accountability
pressure on Fils-Aime post-February 7.
Three-domain critique -- gangs, reshuffling, governance -- mirrors the same pressure
points international partners have raised privately.
Editorial threshold crossings in Haitian press history have preceded accelerated
political realignment in multiple prior governments.
CPT's relationship with PM Fils-Aime will face public scrutiny if the editorial critique
generates opposition or civil society alignment.
International partners should not treat the editorial as isolated but as a leading indicator
of elite consensus formation.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Diplomatic missions should factor the Le Nouvelliste editorial into assessments of PM
Fils-Aime's political durability.
International partners should request a concrete 30-day governance deliverables
framework from the Prime Minister's office.
Civil society liaison officers should assess whether the editorial is generating structured
opposition coalition activity.
Donor conditionality frameworks should be reviewed in light of the emerging
accountability discourse.
Media monitoring should be elevated to track whether other outlets reinforce or rebut
the Le Nouvelliste position.
February 21, 2026

CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: DISPLACEMENT CRISIS: IOM JANUARY REPORT AND

DOMINICAN PRESSURE
IOM's January 2026 situation report confirms Haiti's internally displaced population has
reached 1.4 million persons, with 23,000 additional displacements recorded in January
alone. The figure represents one of the highest single-month displacement tallies of the
current crisis cycle, driven by continued gang-initiated population expulsions from
contested neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince and Artibonite department. The scale of
January displacement indicates that the security operations detailed in Development 1,
while tactically significant, have not yet produced measurable relief in population
movement patterns.
On February 19, the Dominican Republic arrested 1,135 Haitians in a single 24-hour
enforcement operation. This figure is operationally significant because it compresses
the displacement relief valve that irregular cross-border movement has historically
provided. Haitians displaced by gang activity who previously found intermediate refuge
in Dominican territory or used the border zone as a staging point for onward movement
to third countries now face an enforcement posture that closes that corridor.
The convergence of record January displacement inside Haiti and intensified
Dominican enforcement creates a compression dynamic: populations expelled from
gang-controlled areas cannot move south to safer Haitian territory reliably, cannot move
east across the border, and overwhelm displacement camps whose capacity and
funding are already strained. Judge Voltaire's prosecution order against former PNH
chief Rameau Normil for arms trafficking, while institutionally important, does not
directly address the displacement drivers operating at this scale.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

February 21, 2026

Haiti's displacement crisis has intensified steadily since 2022, with IOM tracking
periodic surges correlated with major gang offensives. The Dominican Republic has
conducted cyclical mass deportation and arrest operations throughout this period, with
February 2026 representing an intensification of that enforcement posture.



## TALKING POINTS

1.4 million IDPs with 23,000 January displacements confirms the security operation
tempo has not yet bent the displacement curve.
Dominican 24-hour arrest of 1,135 Haitians on February 19 directly compresses the
primary informal displacement relief corridor.
Compression dynamic -- internal gang expulsion plus closed eastern border -- will
accelerate camp saturation timelines.
IOM January figures will anchor humanitarian funding appeals for Q1 2026 and should
be incorporated into donor engagement now.
Arms trafficking prosecution of ex-PNH chief Normil, while significant institutionally,
does not address immediate displacement drivers.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Humanitarian organizations should immediately revise camp capacity projections using
the January 1.4 million baseline.
OCHA and IOM should jointly assess the Dominican enforcement posture's impact on
displacement corridor modeling.
Diplomatic missions should raise the Dominican enforcement escalation bilaterally to
assess coordination or unilateral character.
Donor governments should accelerate Q1 2026 humanitarian funding decisions given
January displacement velocity.
NGOs with border zone programming should assess operational viability under current
Dominican enforcement conditions.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.
February 21, 2026



## DEVELOPMENT 4: INFRASTRUCTURE SABOTAGE AND WATER CONTAMINATION

CRISIS
Electricite d'Haiti confirmed that the Petionville electrocution incident -- which killed at
least one civilian -- was caused by deliberate criminal sabotage of an electrical cable.
This determination transforms the incident from a maintenance failure into a security
event with direct implications for infrastructure vulnerability assessments across
Port-au-Prince. If gang-affiliated actors or criminal networks are deliberately targeting
utility infrastructure, the attack surface for Haiti's already fragile power grid extends
beyond the gang-controlled perimeter into nominally secure zones such as Petionville.
The government simultaneously convened an inter-institutional workshop addressing
Haiti's drinking water contamination crisis, with preliminary assessments indicating that
over 92 percent of available drinking water is contaminated. This figure, if
methodologically sound, represents a humanitarian emergency with multi-sector
implications: contaminated water drives cholera and other waterborne disease vectors,
degrades population health resilience in displacement camps, and imposes additional
costs on humanitarian logistics chains already strained by displacement volume.
The combination of deliberate infrastructure sabotage and systemic water
contamination creates compounding operational risk for both humanitarian actors and
businesses. Generators dependent on fuel supply chains already vulnerable to gang
disruption now face an additional electrical grid sabotage threat. Businesses and NGOs
relying on municipal water access face contamination exposure requiring systematic
filtration investment.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's infrastructure has operated in a state of chronic degradation since the 2010
earthquake, with gang expansion since 2022 further accelerating targeted attacks on
power infrastructure and fuel logistics chains as instruments of territorial and economic
control.



## TALKING POINTS

EDH sabotage confirmation elevates electrical grid attacks from maintenance failures
to deliberate security threats requiring different response protocols.
February 21, 2026

92 percent drinking water contamination rate represents a systemic public health
emergency compounding all existing humanitarian indicators.
Petionville sabotage demonstrates that gang-linked infrastructure attacks are not
contained to gang-controlled zones.
Compound risk -- power sabotage plus water contamination -- directly degrades
humanitarian operational capacity in displacement camps.
Government inter-institutional workshop on water is a first-order positive signal but
requires concrete remediation timeline to be operationally meaningful.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security teams for businesses and NGOs in Petionville and adjacent zones should
update infrastructure vulnerability assessments immediately.
Humanitarian organizations should conduct emergency water safety audits for all camp
and distribution sites.
Donors should evaluate emergency funding for water purification infrastructure as a
direct complement to security programming.
EDH and government security partners should establish infrastructure protection
protocols for utility assets in nominally secure zones.
International partners should request the government's concrete remediation plan from
the inter-institutional water workshop within 72 hours.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor PNH for formal operational report on Kenscoff eliminations, which would
confirm command structure coherence and operational documentation capacity. Watch
for any Le Nouvelliste or opposition political actor follow-up to the Fils-Aime editorial, as
secondary amplification within 48 hours would confirm threshold crossing rather than
isolated critique. Track Dominican Republic official statements on the February 19 mass
February 21, 2026

arrest for indication of whether the operation is policy escalation or tactical enforcement
surge.



## THIS WEEK

H-TAC Morne-Casse first training cycle progress should be assessed against
announced 3-week timeline for any signs of disruption or acceleration. PM Fils-Aime's
office response to Le Nouvelliste editorial, whether through press conference, policy
announcement, or cabinet reshuffle signal, will define the week's political narrative
trajectory. IOM and OCHA camp capacity reporting should be monitored for indicators
that January displacement velocity is continuing or decelerating into February.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

The convergence of tactical PNH gains, governance accountability pressure, and
record displacement against a closing Dominican enforcement perimeter creates a
critical stress test for Haiti's transition architecture over the next 30 days. If PNH
operational tempo produces measurable territorial consolidation without corresponding
humanitarian relief -- particularly on displacement and water contamination --
international partners will face increasing pressure to escalate either funding
commitments or diplomatic intervention on the governance side. The CPT mandate's
extended timeline to February 7, 2027 provides political runway, but operational and
humanitarian deterioration at current velocity does not respect institutional calendars.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

IOM Haiti Displacement Report -- January 2026. International Organization for
Migration. February 2026.
Le Nouvelliste editorial on PM Fils-Aime governance performance. Le Nouvelliste
(Port-au-Prince). February 20-21, 2026.
PNH operational statement on "Operasyon San Kanpe" -- Kenscoff action. Police
Nationale d'Haiti. February 20-21, 2026.
PNH Cap-Haïtien reinforcement deployment announcement. Police Nationale d'Haiti.
February 2026.
EDH confirmation of Petionville electrocution as criminal infrastructure sabotage.
Electricite d'Haiti. February 2026.
Government inter-institutional workshop on drinking water contamination. Republic of
Haiti. February 2026.
AlterPresse coverage of Cap-Haïtien security reinforcement. AlterPresse. February
February 21, 2026

2026.
Judge Voltaire prosecution order against ex-PNH chief Rameau Normil. AlterPresse.
February 2026.
OCHA Haiti Situation Report -- ongoing displacement and humanitarian access. UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. February 2026.
Reuters Haiti security and displacement coverage. Reuters. February 2026.
AFP coverage of Dominican Republic mass arrest of Haitian nationals. Agence
France-Presse. February 19, 2026.
Dominican Republic immigration enforcement operation -- February 19 arrest report.
DR immigration authorities via Haiti Libre. February 19, 2026.
February 21, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*