# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-17
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH ARMORED FLEET EXPANSION AND FILS-AIME GOVERNANCE](#development-1-pnh-armored-fleet-expansion-and-fils-aime-governance)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: FAD'H INTERNAL DISCIPLINE CRISIS -- MINISTRY OF DEFENSE UNION](#development-2-fad'h-internal-discipline-crisis----ministry-of-defense-union)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: TPS LEGAL BATTLE -- 18-STATE AG COALITION OPPOSES D.C.](#development-3-tps-legal-battle----18-state-ag-coalition-opposes-d.c.)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: OAS PERMANENT COUNCIL -- FIRST MAJOR MULTILATERAL HAITI](#development-4-oas-permanent-council----first-major-multilateral-haiti)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The PNH received 10 Canadian armored vehicles on February 16, bringing its total fleet to 35
units as Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime publicly framed criminal gangs as seeking to
overthrow the interim government -- the most aggressive rhetorical posture since he assumed
sole executive authority. The Ministry of Defense simultaneously issued a statement
criminalizing union activity within the Armed Forces of Haiti, signaling internal military tensions
during a critical institutional buildup period. An 18-state attorney general coalition filed an
amicus brief opposing TPS termination in the D.C. Circuit, where a ruling is expected this week.
The OAS Permanent Council convenes February 18 to assess Haiti's post-CPT governance
trajectory. Carnival concluded without major security incidents -- a limited positive signal.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Haiti's PNH armored fleet reaches 35 units following Canada's February 16 delivery.
PM Fils-Aime publicly defines gang suppression as existential precondition for elections.
Ministry of Defense issues criminal warning against FAd'H union organizing.
18-state AG coalition strengthens TPS legal defense in D.C. Circuit.
OAS Permanent Council convenes February 18 -- first major Haiti session since CPT expiration.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: PNH ARMORED FLEET EXPANSION AND FILS-AIME GOVERNANCE

ESCALATION
The PNH received 10 Canadian-donated armored vehicles on February 16 at a ceremony at
PNH General Directorate headquarters in Clercine, Port-au-Prince. Canadian Ambassador
Andre Francois Giroux presented the vehicles through UNOPS, reaffirming Canada's
unwavering support for Haiti's security restoration. The delivery brings the PNH's total armored
vehicle inventory to 35 units, including 3 South Korean tracked fighting vehicles received
February 5 and 22 previously delivered vehicles from various donors. PM Alix Didier Fils-Aime
attended in his capacity as Coordinator of the Superior Council of the National Police (CSPN).
Fils-Aime used the occasion to deliver his most significant public address since assuming sole
executive authority. He declared that there can be no political stability, economic recovery, or
social cohesion without the full and complete restoration of republican order, and called on the
population to support security forces battling criminal gangs bent on overthrowing the interim
government. This represents a deliberate rhetorical escalation -- framing gangs not merely as a
security challenge but as an existential threat to constitutional governance itself.
February 17, 2026

Fils-Aime explicitly linked PNH armament to electoral prerequisites, stating that security
strengthening is part of a comprehensive plan to create the necessary conditions for holding
free, inclusive, transparent, and democratic elections. This formulation subordinates the August
30 electoral target to Gang Suppression Force deployment success, reinforcing the
government's conditional electoral timeline and providing political cover for any delay should the
GSF arrive late or underperform following its April deployment.
The cumulative armored fleet expansion carries operational significance. South Korean tracked
vehicles offer mobility on unpaved terrain where gang forces control road access, while
Canadian vehicles augment PNH rapid response capability. Imminent deployment to strategic
locations was announced for the South Korean contingent. Against a backdrop of Viv Ansanm
controlling approximately 85 to 90 percent of Port-au-Prince, the 35-vehicle fleet remains
quantitatively insufficient for full territorial recovery but signals sustained international material
commitment to the Fils-Aime government during the pre-GSF security gap.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's PNH has historically operated with minimal armored support, relying on light vehicles
vulnerable to gang ambushes. The current multilateral vehicle transfer program spanning
Canada, South Korea, and prior donors represents the largest coordinated armored equipment
delivery to the PNH since the force's reconstitution in the 1990s. Fils-Aime's existential threat
framing echoes governance language from the 2004 collapse period when institutional rhetoric
shifted from crime management to state survival.



## TALKING POINTS

PNH armored fleet stands at 35 vehicles following the February 16 Canadian delivery.
Fils-Aime has publicly defined gang suppression as a precondition for elections.
Electoral calendar target of August 30 is now explicitly conditioned on prior security gains.
Canadian and South Korean material support demonstrates sustained multilateral backing.
GSF April deployment remains the critical gap in operational security capacity.
Carnival period concluded without major incident -- a limited positive security signal.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should use the February 18 OAS meeting to press for accelerated
February 17, 2026

GSF force generation commitments beyond current April estimates.
NGOs and businesses should update route security assessments following planned South
Korean armored vehicle deployments to strategic locations.
Diplomatic missions should note Fils-Aime's conditional electoral framing as a potential
precursor to timeline revision requests at multilateral forums.
Donors should coordinate vehicle maintenance and logistics support packages alongside
equipment donations to preserve operational longevity.
Analysts should track deployment locations for the 35-vehicle fleet as an indicator of PNH
operational priorities and territorial ambitions.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: FAD'H INTERNAL DISCIPLINE CRISIS -- MINISTRY OF DEFENSE UNION

WARNING
The Ministry of Defense issued a forceful institutional statement on February 16 declaring that
no union exists within the Ministry or the Armed Forces of Haiti and that none ever will. The
statement warned that any individual or collective attempt to falsely claim union affiliation,
mislead public opinion, or disrupt the functioning of national defense institutions would be
treated as a criminal act subject to severe disciplinary sanctions and legal prosecution without
prior warning. The aggressive tone and preemptive legal language indicate the Ministry was
responding to an active organizing attempt rather than issuing a theoretical policy position.
The timing of this declaration is operationally significant. The FAd'H is currently receiving its
most substantial international support in decades, including 5 million dollars in US non-lethal
assistance authorized under the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2026, South Korean
armored vehicles, and training agreements with France, Argentina, and South Korea. Internal
discipline disputes during a critical institutional buildup period introduce governance friction at
precisely the moment when command coherence is most required for GSF coordination and
Operation San Kanpe support.
The statement's threat of criminal prosecution rather than administrative discipline suggests the
Ministry views potential organizing activity as politically motivated rather than labor-related. This
February 17, 2026

may reflect broader tensions within the 1,500-person FAd'H over pay, command structure, or the
distribution of newly acquired equipment and international training opportunities. If organizing
attempts were linked to political actors seeking leverage over the military during the post-CPT
power transition, the implications extend beyond internal discipline.
No independent reporting has confirmed who attempted to organize or what grievances
prompted the warning. The absence of corroborating sources limits full assessment of the
internal dynamic. However, the public nature of the statement -- clearly intended as a deterrent
addressed to the force as a whole -- indicates the Ministry judged that internal messaging alone
was insufficient to suppress the activity.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The FAd'H was disbanded by President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in 1995 following documented
human rights abuses and was reconstituted by presidential decree in 2017 under President
Jovenel Moise. The reconstituted force has faced persistent questions about command loyalty
and political neutrality since reactivation. Labor organizing within Haitian state security
institutions is not permitted under military law.



## TALKING POINTS

Ministry of Defense has declared union activity in FAd'H a criminal offense subject to
prosecution without warning.
Internal organizing attempts appear to have occurred despite the prohibition, prompting a public
deterrence statement.
FAd'H is receiving unprecedented multilateral support including US funding, South Korean
equipment, and French training.
Internal tensions during GSF standup period represent a governance vulnerability for the
Fils-Aime administration.
No independent confirmation of the identity or motivation of those who attempted to organize.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International military assistance providers should request Ministry of Defense briefings on
internal command climate before proceeding with next disbursement tranches.
The OAS Haiti monitoring mandate should include FAd'H institutional stability indicators
alongside PNH metrics.
February 17, 2026

Diplomatic missions should assess whether the union warning reflects political faction activity
within the military and report findings to capitals.
Fils-Aime government should consider transparent communication on pay and promotion
structures to reduce conditions favorable to organizing.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: TPS LEGAL BATTLE -- 18-STATE AG COALITION OPPOSES D.C.

CIRCUIT STAY
An 18-state attorney general coalition filed an amicus brief in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals
on February 16, opposing the Trump administration's motion to overturn Judge Reyes's stay
blocking Temporary Protected Status termination for approximately 350,000 Haitians. The
coalition was co-led by Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell and Maryland
Attorney General Anthony G. Brown and included California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District
of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York,
Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. The brief argues that TPS termination would
separate families, damage state economies, deplete workforces, increase healthcare costs, and
harm public health and safety.
The legal trajectory favors TPS holders as of the February 16 filing date. Judge Reyes issued
the original stay on February 2, upheld it against a government challenge on February 12
despite reported threats against the judge, and the 18-state coalition now provides additional
appellate weight. Separately, the Ninth Circuit ruled on January 28, 2026, that the Department of
Homeland Security lacked statutory authority to vacate prior TPS designations for Haiti and
Venezuela, characterizing the terminations as unlawful agency action that must be set aside
nationwide. TPS holders currently benefit from two independent legal protections operating in
parallel.
The economic stakes for Haiti are direct and substantial. Haitian TPS holders represent a major
remittance pipeline to a country where 60 percent of the population survives on less than one
dollar per day and where humanitarian funding has collapsed to 3.4 percent of required levels.
Abrupt TPS termination affecting 350,000 holders would reduce remittance flows at a moment
February 17, 2026

when no alternative economic support mechanism exists for the Haitian population. The D.C.
Circuit ruling, expected this week, will determine whether the stay survives into the medium
term.
The political dimension of the TPS battle intersects directly with Haiti governance interests. The
Fils-Aime government has not made public statements on the US TPS litigation, but any mass
return of Haitian nationals from the United States would compound the displacement crisis --
currently at 1.4 million internally displaced persons -- and strain humanitarian infrastructure
already operating at minimal funding levels alongside ongoing gang territorial control of 85 to 90
percent of Port-au-Prince.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti received TPS designation following the 2010 earthquake and has maintained that status
through successive renewals tied to ongoing insecurity and governance instability. The Trump
administration moved to terminate Haiti's TPS in 2025 as part of a broader immigration
enforcement posture. The 2025-2026 litigation cycle mirrors a similar legal battle during the first
Trump administration when TPS terminations were blocked in federal courts before policy
reversals.



## TALKING POINTS

18 state AGs filed amicus brief on February 16 opposing Trump administration TPS termination
effort.
D.C. Circuit ruling expected this week on government motion to overturn stay.
TPS holders benefit from two independent legal protections -- Judge Reyes's stay and the Ninth
Circuit January 28 ruling.
Termination of TPS for 350,000 Haitians would directly impact remittance flows critical to Haiti's
economy.
Legal framing by state coalition emphasizes economic and public health harm to US states.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Diaspora advocacy organizations should prepare community communications covering all D.C.
Circuit scenarios including stay upheld, stay reversed, and remand.
International financial institutions tracking Haiti remittances should model TPS termination
impact scenarios on household income and HTG liquidity.
February 17, 2026

BINUH and OCHA should include potential returnee flows in contingency planning for
humanitarian capacity under a TPS termination scenario.
Haitian government should proactively engage US State Department on remittance corridor
protection independent of TPS litigation outcome.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: OAS PERMANENT COUNCIL -- FIRST MAJOR MULTILATERAL HAITI

SESSION POST-CPT
The OAS Permanent Council will convene a regular meeting on February 18, 2026, at 09:30
EST at OAS headquarters in Washington to address developments in the political situation in
Haiti. Secretary General Albert Ramdin will present a progress report. The meeting is the first
major multilateral forum on Haiti's governance trajectory since the CPT mandate expired on
February 7 and Fils-Aime assumed sole executive authority. The three OAS focus areas for Haiti
are: security coordination and monitoring of the Gang Suppression Force; political dialogue and
governance arrangements beyond the February 2026 CPT expiration; and election preparation
and support.
The meeting takes place while the post-CPT institutional framework remains undefined.
Fils-Aime has consolidated executive authority without a formal multilateral endorsement of the
new governance arrangement. The OAS has previously signaled concern through Ramdin's
warnings that gangs operate with apparent freedom and his calls on member states to step up
commitments in real terms. Whether the Permanent Council formally recognizes the Fils-Aime
government's legitimacy or presses for a defined political roadmap will shape the diplomatic
environment for the next 60 to 90 days.
The GSF force generation timeline is the most actionable agenda item. First contingents are
expected in April 2026, with a ceiling of 5,550 personnel and pledges reaching 7,500. The
Kenya-led MSS currently provides approximately 1,000 personnel in a drawdown posture. The
gap between current operational capacity and the April GSF arrival represents the period of
greatest security vulnerability, and OAS pressure for accelerated deployment or expanded MSS
bridging is the most operationally significant outcome the session could produce.
February 17, 2026

Electoral support remains a secondary but structurally important agenda item. The CEP
calendar targeting August 30 for a first round requires stable security conditions that do not
currently exist across the capital. Any OAS statement on electoral viability or timeline adjustment
would carry significant weight for donor funding decisions, party registration compliance
deadlines, and the international credibility of the Fils-Aime government's conditional electoral
framing announced earlier the same week.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The OAS has maintained a continuous Haiti engagement mandate since the 2004 governance
crisis and provided election observation for every Haitian electoral cycle since 2006. The
February 18 session follows a November 2025 Ramdin roadmap update that prioritized
security-election sequencing. Multilateral recognition of post-CPT governance arrangements
has historically been determinative for international funding access and political legitimacy in
Haitian transitions.



## TALKING POINTS

OAS Permanent Council meets February 18 for first major Haiti governance discussion since
CPT expiration on February 7.
Secretary General Ramdin will present a progress report on security, political dialogue, and
elections.
GSF April deployment timeline and force generation gaps are the most operationally urgent
agenda items.
OAS posture toward Fils-Aime government's legitimacy will shape the diplomatic environment
for the coming quarter.
Electoral calendar viability assessment may influence CEP funding commitments and
compliance enforcement.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should deploy observers to the February 18 OAS session and
circulate Ramdin's progress report to field operations within 24 hours.
Governments considering GSF contributions should treat the February 18 meeting as the
deadline for updated force generation commitments.
NGOs and businesses should assess operational plans against two OAS outcome scenarios --
February 17, 2026

affirmation of current trajectory versus pressure for formal political dialogue mechanism.
Analysts should track whether OAS language on the February 7 CPT expiration characterizes
the Fils-Aime government as a legitimate caretaker or as requiring additional mandate.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

The OAS Permanent Council convenes February 18 at 09:30 EST; Secretary General Ramdin's
progress report will signal whether the multilateral community formally endorses the Fils-Aime
post-CPT governance arrangement or presses for a new political dialogue mechanism -- the
primary diplomatic variable for the coming quarter. Government operations resume February 19
following the Carnival holiday; watch for new decrees, appointments, or policy announcements
from the Prime Minister's office. The D.C. Circuit TPS ruling may be issued at any point this
week; a stay reversal would immediately affect 350,000 Haitians and trigger remittance impact
cascades.



## THIS WEEK

The South Korean armored vehicle deployment to strategic locations, announced as imminent
on February 16, should become visible in the next five to seven days; deployment locations will
indicate whether the PNH is prioritizing highway corridors, critical infrastructure, or residential
zone reestablishment. Post-Carnival kidnapping trend data will clarify whether the apparent
suppression of incidents during the holiday reflects genuine security improvement or reporting
delays. The Ministry of Defense will face pressure to clarify the FAd'H union warning following its
public circulation; any disciplinary action will indicate the severity of internal tensions. GSF force
generation updates from contributing countries may emerge in the margins of the OAS meeting.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

The April 2026 GSF deployment window is the defining variable for the entire electoral timeline.
February 17, 2026

If contributing nations fail to meet force generation commitments, the August 30 first-round
target becomes structurally untenable, and the Fils-Aime government's conditional electoral
framing will be tested by partners who funded the electoral calendar. The TPS litigation
trajectory through the D.C. Circuit will determine remittance stability for the second and third
quarters of 2026. The HOPE/HELP textile renewal -- House approved, Senate pending --
represents the primary economic stabilization mechanism available for immediate congressional
action. Humanitarian funding at 3.4 percent of required levels constitutes a structural risk
amplifier for all security and political scenarios through the election cycle.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre, Le Ministere de la Defense rejette toute activite syndicale au sein des FAd'H,
February 16, 2026.
Massachusetts Attorney General Office, 18-State Coalition Files Amicus Brief Opposing TPS
Termination, February 16, 2026.
Global Immigration Blog, Ninth Circuit Rules DHS Lacked Authority to Vacate TPS Designations,
January 28, 2026.
OAS / MirageNews, OAS Permanent Council Meeting -- Developments in the Political Situation
in Haiti, February 18, 2026.
Haiti Libre, Canada donne 10 vehicules blindes supplementaires a la PNH, February 17, 2026.
Gazette Haiti, Livraison de vehicules blindes canadiens a la PNH, February 16, 2026.
Juno7 (Facebook), Vehicle handover at PNH General Directorate Clercine, February 16, 2026.
[Social Media -- no institutional source available for this event confirmation.]
OAS Secretary General Ramdin, Haiti Roadmap Progress Update, November 2025.
US Congress, Consolidated Appropriations Act 2026 -- FAd'H Non-Lethal Assistance
Authorization, February 3, 2026.
Jamaica Observer / CMC, Haiti PM calls on population to support police and army against
criminal gangs, February 17, 2026.
IRC, Haiti Emergency Warning: Humanitarian Funding at 3.4 Percent of Required Level,
February 10-11, 2026.
Haiti Libre, Livraison de vehicules blindes sud-coreens aux FAd'H, February 6, 2026.
February 17, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*