# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-14
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: KENSCOFF GANG ARSON ESCALATION THREATENS CRITICAL](#development-1-kenscoff-gang-arson-escalation-threatens-critical)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: POLITICAL DIALOGUE STALEMATE DESPITE FILS-AIME GOVERNANCE](#development-2-political-dialogue-stalemate-despite-fils-aime-governance)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: KIDNAPPING-FOR-RANSOM SURGE SIGNALS GANG ECONOMIC](#development-3-kidnapping-for-ransom-surge-signals-gang-economic)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: TPS LEGAL PROTECTION SUSTAINED SECURING DIASPORA](#development-4-tps-legal-protection-sustained-securing-diaspora)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Seven days post-CPT dissolution, Haiti faces dual security crises as Viv Ansanm gangs burned
farmer homes in Kenscoff on February 13 while kidnapping-for-ransom operations surge in
Port-au-Prince targeting professionals. PM Fils-Aime exercised first municipal appointment
authority installing new Port-au-Prince commission but political dialogue remains frozen since
February 7. PNH expanded Operasyon San Kanpe targeting road clearance while US Judge
Reyes denied TPS termination stay protecting 350,000 Haitians. Carnival 2026 proceeds
decentralized across multiple cities avoiding Port-au-Prince security concentration risks.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Kenscoff corridor compromised by gang arson targeting farmers disrupting sole southern Haiti
logistics route.
Kidnapping-for-ransom model returns with university professor rescued and middle-class
professionals targeted.
Political dialogue at standstill despite international calls for inclusive consultation mechanisms.
TPS protections secured for 350,000 Haitian beneficiaries maintaining remittance flows.
Decentralized Carnival 2026 distributes security requirements across municipalities avoiding
capital concentration.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: KENSCOFF GANG ARSON ESCALATION THREATENS CRITICAL

SOUTHERN LOGISTICS CORRIDOR
Viv Ansanm coalition gangs burned multiple farmer homes in Kenscoff on February 13 marking
the seventh major attack phase since January 27, 2025 targeting the sole viable road
connecting Port-au-Prince to Jacmel and southern departments. Tele Haiti and Pacific confirmed
malfrats conducted coordinated arson operations against agricultural communities while
maintaining checkpoints at Kajak controlling the rehabilitated Kenscoff road. The sustained
campaign follows a January 30, 2026 attack killing at least ten people including three community
patrol members and a three-month-old infant demonstrating escalating violence against civilian
populations.
The Kenscoff corridor represents critical strategic infrastructure as gang control of National
Routes 1, 2, and 3 leaves this mountain route as the primary alternative for humanitarian
organizations and commercial operators accessing South and Southeast departments. Grand
Ravine, Ti Bois, Village de Dieu, and 400 Mawozo gangs have systematically targeted this
February 14, 2026

corridor killing hundreds and displacing thousands while establishing territorial control
mechanisms. The February 13 attack specifically targeted farmers suggesting economic warfare
tactics aimed at food security disruption beyond pure territorial acquisition objectives.
IRC reports humanitarian funding at only 3.4 percent of needs while 1.4 million people remain
displaced with over half being children requiring southern department access for aid distribution.
World Food Programme estimates half the population faces crisis-level hunger making Kenscoff
route functionality essential for famine prevention operations. The gang checkpoint system at
Kajak enables extortion revenue generation while controlling movement of goods and
humanitarian supplies creating compounding effects on already severe food insecurity
conditions.
Operational implications extend beyond immediate security concerns as businesses maintaining
operations in southern Haiti face logistics chain disruption requiring either aerial transport at
prohibitive costs or acceptance of gang taxation through checkpoint systems. The targeting of
farmers specifically signals gang intent to control agricultural production and distribution
networks rather than simple territorial dominance creating food weaponization scenarios.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Kenscoff corridor gained strategic importance following gang seizure of major national
routes beginning in 2021 with the systematic expansion of Viv Ansanm coalition control over
Port-au-Prince arterial roads making mountain passes the sole alternative for southern access.



## TALKING POINTS

Kenscoff represents sole viable land route to southern Haiti following gang control of national
road network.
Seventh attack phase since January 2025 demonstrates sustained campaign not opportunistic
violence.
Farmer targeting suggests food weaponization strategy beyond territorial control objectives.
Humanitarian operations face critical logistics disruption affecting 1.4 million displaced persons.
Checkpoint system at Kajak enables gang revenue generation through extortion taxation model.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Deploy PNH rapid reaction forces to Kenscoff establishing permanent security presence at
February 14, 2026

Kajak checkpoint.
Coordinate GSF deployment prioritizing Kenscoff corridor protection as critical infrastructure
objective.
Activate aerial supply chain protocols for southern department humanitarian operations until
ground security restored.
Establish farmer protection mechanisms including community patrol support and emergency
evacuation procedures.
Assess alternative southern access routes through Dominican Republic border crossings as
contingency option.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: POLITICAL DIALOGUE STALEMATE DESPITE FILS-AIME GOVERNANCE

NORMALIZATION SIGNALS
Political dialogue remains frozen since February 7 contradicting international calls from OAS,
BINUH, France, and Canada for inclusive inter-Haitian consultation despite PM Fils-Aime
demonstrating executive capacity through first municipal appointments under sole authority. Le
Nouvelliste reported the Haitian political landscape appears frozen in immobility with proposals
for crisis exits pushed to background while Minister of Interior Paul Antoine Bien-Aime presided
over installation of new Port-au-Prince Municipal Commission appointed by February 7 decree.
Former Justice Minister Michel Brunache provided legal framework analysis stating this is not
the moment for cake-sharing while outlining juridical basis for executive continuity under Conseil
des ministres signaling establishment legal backing.
The municipal commission installation represents significant governance signal as first new local
appointments under Fils-Aime sole executive authority demonstrating capacity to exercise
municipal governance powers without CPT collective decision-making constraints. Le
Nouvelliste front-page editorial noted PM Fils-Aime now has full powers and massive American
support facing test-effect choices signaling elite expectations for concrete governance
deliverables beyond security domain operations. The appointment mechanism via decree
establishes precedent for unilateral executive action on sub-national governance structures
potentially extending to other municipal jurisdictions.
February 14, 2026

The dialogue freeze creates concerning disconnect between international community
messaging emphasizing inclusive political process and ground-level reality where no visible
consultation mechanisms operate. ULCC announcement to investigate former CPT advisors
beyond asset declarations with 30-day deadline adds accountability pressure but does not
substitute for forward-looking political consensus building on electoral calendar execution. CEP
published schedule maintains August 30 first round and December 6 second round with
February 7, 2027 inauguration but conditions implementation on security necessary for
national-scale voting with no updates on readiness or funding gaps.
The absence of dialogue mechanisms raises questions about electoral legitimacy foundations
as CEP requires broad political buy-in for candidate registration processes beginning with 30
percent women candidate compliance requirements. Without active consultation forums political
actors lack channels to negotiate electoral framework disputes creating risks of wholesale
boycotts or contested legitimacy claims regardless of technical execution quality.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The CPT operated as collective executive from April 2024 through February 7, 2026 with
rotating presidency creating shared decision-making constraints that Fils-Aime governance
model explicitly rejects through unilateral decree authority.



## TALKING POINTS

Political dialogue frozen since February 7 despite international calls for inclusive consultation
mechanisms.
Fils-Aime installed first municipal commission via decree demonstrating unilateral executive
capacity.
Michel Brunache legal analysis provides establishment backing but not broad political
legitimacy.
No visible channels for political actors to negotiate electoral framework disputes.
Electoral calendar maintains February 7, 2027 inauguration but lacks consensus foundation.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Establish time-bound dialogue framework with concrete deliverables before June 2026 electoral
preparation deadlines.
February 14, 2026

Create formal consultation mechanism including opposition parties civil society and private
sector representatives.
Publish municipal appointment criteria and selection process increasing governance
transparency.
Coordinate international pressure for inclusive political process through unified diplomatic
messaging.
Link electoral calendar execution to measurable dialogue milestones preventing technical
process without legitimacy.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: KIDNAPPING-FOR-RANSOM SURGE SIGNALS GANG ECONOMIC

MODEL EVOLUTION
Port-au-Prince faces rising wave of ransom abductions with PNH foiling kidnapping attempt at
Delmas 75 on February 11 rescuing university professor while kidnappers fled under police
gunfire leaving at least one alleged kidnapper killed but confirming at least one successful
abduction elsewhere. Le Nouvelliste report signals significant escalation representing return to
systematic kidnapping-for-ransom model that had partially subsided during intense gang
territorial warfare period with university professor targeting indicating middle-class professional
selection rather than purely wealthy elite focus.
The kidnapping surge represents tactical evolution from territorial warfare to economic extraction
as gangs maintain territorial control while diversifying revenue streams beyond checkpoint
extortion and real estate seizure. Senate testimony from Wooster on February 10 confirmed
gangs generate 60 to 75 million dollars annually from extortion operations with kidnapping
providing high-value individual transactions complementing systematic taxation models. The
targeting of professionals suggests deliberate market segmentation identifying victims with
ransom payment capacity but insufficient security protection creating optimal risk-reward
profiles.
PNH response at Delmas 75 demonstrates some tactical effectiveness with rapid intervention
preventing completion and rescuing target but simultaneous successful abduction elsewhere
February 14, 2026

indicates resource constraints preventing comprehensive protection coverage. Acting
Commander Vladimir Paraison expanded Operasyon San Kanpe focused on
Croix-des-Bouquets, Tabarre, and central Port-au-Prince but kidnapping operations can shift
geographically faster than area-clearing operations establish permanent control creating
persistent vulnerability zones.
The return to professional targeting creates direct operational impact on business continuity as
companies face employee security costs and potential staff loss either through successful
kidnappings or preventive departure decisions. Insurance markets may respond with coverage
exclusions or prohibitive premium increases for Haiti operations compounding business
environment deterioration. The psychological impact extends beyond direct victims as
middle-class professionals reassess personal risk tolerance potentially accelerating brain drain
dynamics.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Kidnapping-for-ransom represented dominant gang revenue model from 2018 through 2021
before shifting to territorial warfare and checkpoint taxation following gang federation
consolidation under G9 and Viv Ansanm coalition structures.



## TALKING POINTS

University professor targeting signals middle-class professional focus not purely elite wealth
concentration.
Kidnapping surge represents gang economic diversification beyond territorial control revenue.
PNH demonstrated tactical response capacity but lacks resources for comprehensive protection
coverage.
Business operations face direct employee security impact affecting operational continuity.
Psychological effects may accelerate professional emigration decisions compounding brain
drain dynamics.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Implement executive protection protocols for high-risk professional categories including medical
and education sectors.
Establish rapid response kidnapping units in all Port-au-Prince police districts.
Create business security coordination mechanism sharing threat intelligence and protective
February 14, 2026

measures.
Activate insurance industry engagement preventing wholesale coverage exclusions that would
paralyze operations.
Deploy plainclothes units in professional districts deterring kidnapping reconnaissance
operations.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: TPS LEGAL PROTECTION SUSTAINED SECURING DIASPORA

REMITTANCE INFRASTRUCTURE
Judge Ana Reyes denied Trump administration stay request on February 12 keeping TPS
protections active for over 350,000 Haitians in United States while reading death threats
received in open court denouncing intimidation attempts and maintaining earlier block on
administration attempt to terminate program. DHS admitted possessing addresses of TPS
holders in Springfield Ohio raising deportation operation fears but current ruling prevents
immediate enforcement actions preserving legal status and work authorization for beneficiaries.
The judicial intervention maintains critical economic lifeline as TPS holders represent substantial
portion of remittance flows to Haiti supporting families and local economies during acute crisis
period.
The stay denial creates temporary stability but does not resolve underlying legal challenge as
Trump administration can escalate to higher courts potentially reaching Supreme Court level
creating extended uncertainty period. DHS address database admission signals enforcement
infrastructure preparation that could activate rapidly if legal protections eventually fall creating
contingency planning requirements for mass return scenarios. The 350,000 figure represents
substantial population that would overwhelm already collapsed Haitian state capacity if forced
returns occurred creating humanitarian catastrophe compounding existing displacement crisis.
Remittance flows from TPS holders provide essential hard currency and consumption support
with World Bank data showing remittances historically representing significant GDP percentage
for Haiti making sudden disruption economically devastating. The diaspora connection extends
beyond pure financial transfers as TPS holders maintain family networks, invest in small
February 14, 2026

businesses, and fund education creating multiplier effects throughout Haitian society. Loss of
this population would eliminate not only remittance flows but also skilled workforce potential for
eventual reconstruction and development initiatives.
The Springfield Ohio address disclosure specifically raises concerns about targeted
enforcement operations in areas with concentrated Haitian populations potentially creating
demonstration effects intended to encourage voluntary departure. Political dynamics around
immigration enforcement suggest administration may pursue high-visibility operations regardless
of ultimate legal outcome creating climate of fear affecting economic behavior even without
actual deportations occurring at scale.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

TPS designation for Haiti dates to 2010 earthquake with multiple extensions through successive
administrations creating established protection framework that current administration seeks to
terminate as part of broader immigration enforcement policy.



## TALKING POINTS

TPS protections maintained for 350,000 Haitians preserving legal status and work authorization.
Judge Reyes denied stay request despite death threats demonstrating judicial independence.
DHS address database signals enforcement preparation capability if legal protections eventually
fall.
Remittance flows represent critical economic lifeline during acute crisis period.
Mass return scenario would overwhelm collapsed state capacity creating humanitarian
catastrophe.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Activate contingency planning for potential mass return scenarios including reception capacity
and economic absorption.
Establish diaspora coordination mechanism maintaining TPS holder connections regardless of
legal outcome.
Document remittance flow dependencies identifying critical economic sectors reliant on diaspora
support.
Coordinate international messaging emphasizing humanitarian implications of forced returns
during crisis.
February 14, 2026

Develop voluntary return incentive programs as alternative to potential forced deportation
operations.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

PNH and GSF response deployment to Kenscoff corridor following February 13 farmer arson
indicating security force prioritization of critical logistics infrastructure. Carnival Jours Gras
security incidents across decentralized event locations in Jacmel, Fort-Liberte, and other
municipalities testing distributed security capacity during high-profile cultural celebrations.
Kidnapping escalation trajectory monitoring whether Delmas 75 PNH intervention creates
deterrent effect or displacement to other Port-au-Prince districts.



## THIS WEEK

Political dialogue restart signals from Fils-Aime administration or international actors indicating
movement toward inclusive consultation mechanisms before electoral preparation deadlines.
ULCC asset declaration deadline countdown for former CPT members approaching 30-day limit
creating accountability pressure and potential legal actions. TPS legal challenge escalation
monitoring whether Trump administration appeals to higher courts extending uncertainty period
for 350,000 beneficiaries.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

GSF deployment timeline clarification with concrete operational readiness indicators and
geographic deployment priorities affecting gang territorial control dynamics. Electoral calendar
execution milestones particularly voter registration infrastructure activation originally scheduled
November 2025 but significantly delayed. CEP funding gap resolution necessary for August 30
first round implementation including security conditions assessment for national-scale voting
feasibility.
February 14, 2026



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Le Nouvelliste coverage of Port-au-Prince kidnapping wave and political dialogue freeze
February 12-13, 2026
Tele Haiti and Pacific confirmation of Kenscoff gang arson attacks February 13, 2026
MINUSCA flash report on Kenscoff corridor gang attack patterns January-February 2026
Juno7 coverage of PM Fils-Aime municipal commission installation February 13, 2026
AP reporting on UNICEF child recruitment documentation and TPS court ruling February 11-12,
2026
US News coverage of Judge Reyes TPS stay denial and DHS Springfield address disclosure
February 12, 2026
Ministry of Culture and Communication Carnival 2026 decentralization announcement February
13, 2026
HaitiLibre reporting on PNH Operasyon San Kanpe expansion and airport sub-commissariat
reopening February 2026
CEP published electoral calendar with August 30 first round and February 7, 2027 inauguration
timeline
Le Nouvelliste analysis on economic collapse and violence correlation February 2026
Senate Foreign Relations Committee testimony by Wooster on Haiti gang force balance
February 10, 2026
World Bank Resilient Communities Impact Assessment on Haiti economic losses 2019-2025
February 14, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*