# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-10
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: International Stakeholder Alignment on Interim Authority](#development-1-international-stakeholder-alignment-on-interim-authority)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: Domestic Opposition Crystallization and Legitimacy Challenge](#development-2-domestic-opposition-crystallization-and-legitimacy-challenge)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: Security Operations Intensification with Urban Clearance Actions](#development-3-security-operations-intensification-with-urban-clearance-actions)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: Macroeconomic Stability and Digital Infrastructure Expansion](#development-4-macroeconomic-stability-and-digital-infrastructure-expansion)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Within 48 hours of the Transitional Presidential Council dissolution on February 7, Prime Minister
Alix Didier Fils-Aime received formal endorsement from every major international stakeholder
including the United States, BINUH, OAS, France, Canada, and the Dominican Republic. This
unprecedented coordination establishes the strongest international backing for any Haitian
executive since the CPT formation while simultaneously exposing the weakest domestic
constitutional foundation. The absence of legislative or judicial checks creates operationally
functional but constitutionally hollow governance. Domestic opposition is crystallizing around
legitimacy concerns with the Kolektif Tet Ansanm political collective warning against unilateral
governance and lawyer Marc Sony Charles declaring Fils-Aime decisions unconstitutional.
Security operations continue intensifying with confirmed gang attacks in Kenscoff and planned
Delmas municipal demolitions.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

International community achieves unprecedented consensus backing Fils-Aime within 48 hours
through coordinated statements from US BINUH OAS France Canada and Dominican Republic.
Domestic political opposition emerges with KTA collective warning against unilateral governance
and legal challenges questioning PM constitutional authority.
Security baseline unchanged with gang control of Port-au-Prince estimated at 85-90 percent and
confirmed Kenscoff attack killing at least seven civilians.
Macroeconomic indicators remain stable with gourde holding at 130.89-131.00 per dollar and
January customs revenue showing slight year-over-year increase.
GSF deployment gap continues through April 2026 with first contingents expected in spring and
full deployment targeted for October 2026.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: International Stakeholder Alignment on Interim Authority

The most consequential development in this reporting cycle is the speed and comprehensiveness
of international endorsement for Prime Minister Fils-Aime sole executive authority following the
February 7 CPT mandate expiration. Within 48 hours every major international actor with
operational presence or financial commitment to Haiti issued formal statements recognizing his
interim government. The United States on February 7 took note of the peaceful transfer of power
and pledged support for PM Fils-Aime leadership in building a strong prosperous and free Haiti.
BINUH followed on February 9 with a statement explicitly invoking the newly adopted Security
Council Resolution 2814 which renewed BINUH mandate and established the legal architecture
for post-CPT governance support.
The Organization of American States issued the most detailed position paper on February 9
February 10, 2026

characterizing the interim period as short purposeful and clearly directed. OAS language reveals
international strategy to prevent mandate creep or indefinite PM rule by emphasizing time
constraints and specific deliverables. The statement identified two priority objectives improving
security environment and advancing electoral preparations in accordance with the published
calendar which implicitly endorses the August 30 2026 election date. OAS confirmed current
provision of technical and financial support to the Haitian National Police and National
Identification Office while calling the Gang Suppression Force deployment critical to restoration of
security under UNSCR 2793.
France Canada and the Dominican Republic completed the consensus framework. France saluted
the orderly transfer of executive power and pledged continued support for GSF and Haitian
security forces. Canada characterized the transition as an important step toward stability while
directing PM Fils-Aime to work diligently to improve security and organize general elections.
Dominican Republic exhorted political leaders to maintain institutional unity and support the
government directed by PM Fils-Aime. This coordinated messaging within 48 hours demonstrates
advance diplomatic planning and reflects shared concern about governance vacuum risks.
The invocation of UNSCR 2814 by BINUH provides the critical legal foundation. This resolution
adopted in early 2026 renewed BINUH mandate and incorporated provisions for the post-CPT
governance framework. Combined with UNSCR 2793 authorizing the GSF under Chapter VII
these resolutions constitute the international legal architecture supporting Fils-Aime interim
authority. OAS reference to Roadmap Revision Three incorporating priorities identified by Haitian
authorities reflects PM Fils-Aime recent Washington visit and suggests advance coordination on
transition parameters.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

International coordination on Haiti governance has historically been fragmented with competing
priorities among US CARICOM Canada France and UN actors. The 2021-2024 period saw
persistent disagreement on Montana Accord versus CPT legitimacy. The February 2026
consensus represents the strongest alignment since the 2004 MINUSTAH deployment and
reflects shared assessment that governance vacuum poses greater risk than imperfect
transitional authority.



## TALKING POINTS

Every major international stakeholder formally endorsed PM Fils-Aime within 48 hours following
February 7 CPT dissolution establishing unprecedented coordination.
BINUH invocation of UNSCR 2814 provides legal framework for international support to interim
government through renewed mandate.
February 10, 2026

OAS characterized interim period as short purposeful and clearly directed to prevent mandate
creep while endorsing August 30 2026 election timeline.
International consensus prioritizes two objectives improving security environment and advancing
electoral preparations with published calendar.
Coordination reflects advance diplomatic planning and shared concern about governance vacuum
risks outweighing transitional authority imperfections.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should reference UNSCR 2814 in programming documents and
advocacy materials to establish legal basis for engagement with interim government.
Donors should establish structured consultation mechanisms with PM Fils-Aime within next six to
eight weeks before domestic opposition consolidates.
Development partners should align technical assistance priorities with OAS Roadmap Revision
Three incorporating Haitian government identified objectives.
Security sector actors should coordinate planning for January through April 2026 gap period
between MSS drawdown and GSF activation.
Political affairs teams should monitor whether PM Fils-Aime publishes governance decrees in Le
Moniteur establishing legal framework for interim authority.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: Domestic Opposition Crystallization and Legitimacy Challenge

While international actors achieved rapid consensus domestic political forces are mobilizing
opposition to PM Fils-Aime sole executive authority based on constitutional legitimacy concerns.
The Kolektif Tet Ansanm pou Ayiti issued a formal note on February 8 that accepted the transfer
of power to the Council of Ministers as factual reality but warned the PM against toute
gouvernance unilaterale. KTA called for immediate launch of genuine inter-Haitian dialogue
capable of bringing together all political social and economic forces. The collective identified three
priority areas security restoration political stabilization and organization of credible elections while
explicitly threatening that any attempt at isolated governance would risk aggravating the crisis and
compromising chances of stability.
KTA represents significant political weight as it includes Rescapes pour l'Avenir under Tarly
Guirand and Mouvement pour la Sauvegarde de la Democratie under Lickel Pierre. Their
February 10, 2026

February 8 statement provides the template for domestic opposition messaging focusing not on
rejecting Fils-Aime authority but demanding participatory governance mechanisms. AlterPresse
published analytical pieces on February 10 characterizing the post-CPT period as entering new
phase of transition with deep structural uncertainty. Observers cited by AlterPresse assessed that
Fils-Aime exercise of executive power manque de la legitimite populaire indispensable creating
vulnerability to political challenge.
The most direct legal challenge came from lawyer Marc Sony Charles who declared Fils-Aime
current decisions contrary to the Constitution and constituting criminal infractions. Charles argued
the CPT retains legal competence to proceed with his dismissal despite having dissolved and
warned that if Fils-Aime persists he will have to answer for his acts before competent authorities.
While this legal argument is unlikely to gain traction given CPT dissolution and overwhelming
international backing it signals that domestic legal challenges will be recurring feature of interim
period. The absence of functioning legislature or constitutional court weakens any judicial check
on executive power.
The rival Collegue Presidentiel established by OMLAP RAMICOH APN and other organizations
issued no new communique or public action in this 24-hour cycle. The absence of any
international endorsement for the Collegue combined with consolidated support for Fils-Aime
significantly diminishes its near-term viability. However the Collegue proposed 15-month transition
with two commissions remains potential alternative framework if Fils-Aime governance falters or
security situation deteriorates. At least five competing political groups were engaged in post-CPT
discussions as of early February indicating significant fragmentation among opposition forces.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian interim governments have historically faced legitimacy challenges due to absence of
electoral mandate. The 1991-1994 period saw parallel claims to authority. The 2004-2006 interim
government under Boniface Alexandre and Gerard Latortue operated with international backing
but limited domestic acceptance. Current situation differs in having stronger international
consensus but weaker constitutional foundation than previous transitions which retained nominal
parliamentary structures.



## TALKING POINTS

Kolektif Tet Ansanm pou Ayiti issued February 8 warning against unilateral governance
demanding immediate launch of genuine inter-Haitian dialogue.
AlterPresse analysis characterized PM Fils-Aime authority as lacking indispensable popular
legitimacy creating political vulnerability.
Lawyer Marc Sony Charles declared current PM decisions unconstitutional and criminal
February 10, 2026

infractions signaling domestic legal challenges will recur.
Rival Collegue Presidentiel received no international endorsement and issued no new
communique in reporting cycle diminishing near-term viability.
At least five competing political groups engaged in post-CPT discussions indicating significant
opposition fragmentation.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Political actors should monitor whether PM Fils-Aime responds to KTA demand for structured
dialogue through public consultation mechanisms.
International observers should track coalition formation among opposition groups particularly
around August 30 2026 election timeline.
Legal affairs specialists should assess constitutional basis for interim executive authority and
potential judicial challenge pathways.
Civil society organizations should document public participation opportunities in governance
decisions to address legitimacy deficit.
Diplomatic missions should establish contact with KTA leadership and other opposition groups to
assess consolidation potential and red lines.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: Security Operations Intensification with Urban Clearance Actions

Security force operations are entering new phase of intensity with confirmed gang attacks in
peri-urban areas and municipal government launching aggressive urban clearance operations.
Metropole Tele reported at least seven killed in gang attack in Nouvelle Touraine Kenscoff with
numerous houses burned. Kenscoff Mayor Massillon Jean deplored abandonment of communal
sections by police which leaves field open to gangs. This attack demonstrates continued gang
expansion into peri-urban areas beyond Port-au-Prince core consistent with territorial probing
patterns documented by ACLED and BINUH throughout 2025.
Delmas Mayor Wilson Jeudy announced comprehensive demolition operation against illegal
structures on sidewalks beginning February 11 2026. All illegal structures on sidewalks will be
demolished without exception with rationale that illegal constructions obstruct traffic endanger
public safety and impede urban development. Residents received minimal notice to relocate
belongings. A similar operation in Cap-Haitien in January 2026 drew sharp criticism from
February 10, 2026

Chamber of Commerce which condemned demolitions carried out without reasonable notice
without prior communication of clear and structured plan. Delmas operation will likely trigger
protests and economic disruption in one of Port-au-Prince key commercial corridors.
Le Nouvelliste continues to headline security posture with phrase Vers l'intensification des
operations et de la puissance de feu des forces de l'ordre. The verb intensifier was confirmed as
single-word operational directive from well-placed security source. PNH Grand'Anse department
reported 77 arrests between January 1-31 2026 with 48 on warrants and 29 caught in flagrante
delicto representing notable enforcement capacity outside capital. Port-au-Prince airport
crossroads sub-police station reopened improving security around critical transportation
infrastructure. Gang leader Barbecue Cherizier remains dislodged from Delmas 6 stronghold with
current location unconfirmed.
Security baseline remains essentially unchanged with gang control of Port-au-Prince estimated at
85-90 percent. Viv Ansanm coalition cohesion remains fractured since December 2025 due to
internal disputes over kidnapping policies. The critical gap in international security support
continues through April 2026 between MSS drawdown and GSF activation. OAS confirmed GSF
deployment timeline with first contingents expected in April 2026 and full deployment targeted for
October 2026. Eighteen countries have pledged security forces for GSF consisting of up to 5500
personnel under UNSCR 2793 Chapter VII mandate but key unresolved issues include GSF
leadership appointment Special Representative designation and financing mechanisms.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Urban clearance operations in Haiti have historically triggered violent resistance particularly when
conducted without consultation or compensation frameworks. The 2005 Cite Soleil operations
under MINUSTAH resulted in significant civilian casualties. January 2026 Cap-Haitien demolitions
demonstrated continued tension between municipal development objectives and vulnerable
population displacement risks. Delmas February 11 operation occurs in commercial zone with
higher economic stakes than typical informal settlement clearances.



## TALKING POINTS

Kenscoff gang attack killed at least seven civilians with houses burned demonstrating continued
territorial expansion beyond Port-au-Prince core.
Delmas Mayor announced February 11 demolition operation targeting illegal sidewalk structures
without exception following minimal notice period.
Similar Cap-Haitien operation in January 2026 drew Chamber of Commerce criticism for lack of
reasonable notice and clear structured plan.
Le Nouvelliste confirms intensification as operational directive for security forces with increased
February 10, 2026

firepower and operational tempo.
Gang control of Port-au-Prince remains at 85-90 percent with Viv Ansanm cohesion fractured
since December 2025 internal disputes.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Business operators in Delmas should prepare for traffic disruption and potential protest activity
beginning February 11 through mid-week.
Humanitarian organizations should pre-position displacement response capacity for Delmas
operation particularly for street vendors and informal sector workers.
Security analysts should monitor municipal government coordination with PNH for clearance
operations to assess civilian protection measures.
Development partners should advocate for structured consultation processes before future urban
clearance operations to reduce displacement and economic shock.
International security actors should intensify GSF deployment planning to reduce January through
April 2026 gap period vulnerability.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: Macroeconomic Stability and Digital Infrastructure Expansion

Macroeconomic indicators demonstrate remarkable stability through political transition with
exchange rate holding firm and digital financial infrastructure expanding. The gourde maintained
130.89 to 131.00 per US dollar in late January through early February 2026 with January 2026
monthly average of 0.007637 representing 0.06 percent year-to-date appreciation against dollar.
January trading range of 0.007626 to 0.007643 shows minimal volatility with only 0.22 percent
spread indicating no devaluation pressure. January 2026 customs revenue reached 11.853 billion
gourdes across 21 operating days representing slight year-over-year increase. Banque de la
Republique d'Haiti reserves and diaspora remittance flows appear to provide sufficient liquidity
support.
NATCASH announced expanded financial inclusion and digital remittance services on February 9
through partnerships with CamTransfer and Unitransfer enabling diaspora remittances from
United States Canada France Mexico and Chile. Platform features advanced security including
biometric authentication transaction geolocation and anti-fraud systems with nationwide agent
network covering remote areas. NATCASH positioning as leading financial and money transfer
February 10, 2026

platform in Caribbean region provides critical infrastructure given traditional banking channels
remain constrained by security conditions. Digital remittance infrastructure is operationally
significant as diaspora transfers constitute approximately 30 percent or more of Haiti GDP.
Ministry of Commerce and Industry revealed through Quality Control Directorate that 83 percent
or more of treated and packaged water samples sold in Port-au-Prince metropolitan area do not
fully comply with MCI requirements. Key findings include labeling standards not met by multiple
suppliers and physico-chemical analyses showing water almost totally devoid of minerals. MCI
pledged enforcement measures but this represents public health concern affecting all operations
in PAP metro area. Organizations relying on commercially packaged water should review sourcing
and consider independent testing protocols.
TPS termination effective February 3 2026 continues generating major impact with 350000 or
more Haitian nationals in United States at risk of deportation. Active deportation flights
documented with 132 on February 5 and 136 on February 7 including TPS and Green Card
holders with children. Catholic bishops and United States Committee for Refugees and
Immigrants are calling for reversal. Department of Homeland Security rationale claims Haiti no
longer meets statutory requirements which contradicts State Department Level 4 Do Not Travel
advisory. NATCASH expansion provides some insulation for remittance continuity but deportation
volumes threaten significant reduction in financial flows.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian gourde has demonstrated relative stability during previous political transitions including
2004 and 2016 periods due to remittance inflows and BRH reserve management. Digital financial
infrastructure emerged after 2010 earthquake when traditional banking was disrupted. Mobile
money platforms including NATCASH MonCash and others now process significant portion of
domestic transactions. Water quality issues have been persistent concern since 2010 cholera
outbreak with minimal regulatory enforcement capacity.



## TALKING POINTS

Gourde exchange rate holding at 130.89 to 131.00 per dollar through political transition with
January showing 0.06 percent year-to-date appreciation.
Customs revenue reached 11.853 billion gourdes in January 2026 representing slight
year-over-year increase indicating continued trade activity.
NATCASH digital remittance platform expanded partnerships enabling transfers from US Canada
France Mexico Chile with biometric security features.
Ministry of Commerce found 83 percent of packaged water in Port-au-Prince fails quality
standards creating public health risk for operations.
February 10, 2026

TPS termination threatens 350000 Haitian nationals in US with active deportation flights
averaging 130 plus per cycle since February 3.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Financial institutions should maintain current exchange rate forecasts with expectation of
continued stability through Q1 2026 barring security deterioration.
Business operations should diversify water sourcing and implement independent testing protocols
given MCI findings on packaged water quality.
Organizations with Haitian staff in United States should provide legal support resources and
document potential operational impacts of deportations.
Remittance-dependent programming should develop contingency plans for potential 10 to 20
percent reduction in diaspora transfers if deportations accelerate.
Private sector actors should engage NATCASH and similar platforms for payment infrastructure
given traditional banking channel constraints.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor PM Fils-Aime for publication of governance decrees in Le Moniteur establishing legal
framework for interim executive authority or cabinet appointments. Delmas demolition operation
begins February 11 with potential for protests economic disruption and tension in commercial
corridor. Collegue Presidentiel may issue CPR-002 communique or hold public events to maintain
political relevance against international consensus favoring PM. Security operations tempo
expected to remain elevated following Le Nouvelliste intensification signal with increased risk of
civilian casualties.



## THIS WEEK

ULCC 30-day asset declaration deadline approaching March 9 for former CPT members with
prosecution trigger for non-compliance. GSF Special Representative Jack Christofides expected
to assume post in Haiti this month with first statements signaling operational priorities and
coordination mechanisms. CPJ monitoring whether PM Fils-Aime addresses or enforces January
February 10, 2026

16 criminal defamation decree affecting media freedom. Dame-Marie health emergency declared
by ANTRAX organization in Grand'Anse warrants monitoring for escalation given limited
healthcare infrastructure. OAS structured consultation framework implementation will signal
whether PM responds to domestic legitimacy concerns.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

August 30 2026 election date serves as critical decision point with electoral preparations timeline
compressed and CEP operational capacity uncertain. GSF deployment timeline targets April 2026
first contingents and October 2026 full deployment creating sustained security gap through
spring. USCG ISPS port compliance deadline approaching in February through March 2026 with
potential trade restrictions if Haitian seaports fail certification. Domestic opposition coalition
formation around legitimacy deficit narrative will accelerate as election campaign period
approaches. International community coordination sustainability depends on visible progress on
security and electoral preparation benchmarks within 60 to 90 day window.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Le Nouvelliste Headlines on Security Operations February 8-9 2026
OAS General Secretariat Statement E-019/26 on Haiti Political Transition
France Foreign Ministry Statement on Haiti February 9 2026
Caribbean National Weekly OAS Backing Analysis February 10 2026
Committee to Protect Journalists Statement on Criminal Defamation Decree January 16 2026
Ministry of Commerce and Industry Water Quality Control Findings February 2026
AlterPresse Appels au dialogue et au consensus February 10 2026
HaitiLibre Daily Headlines February 9-10 2026
BINUH Statement on End of Transitional Presidential Council Mandate
United States Department of State Statement on Haiti Transition February 7 2026
Canada Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand Statement February 9 2026
Kolektif Tet Ansanm pou Ayiti Formal Note February 8 2026
February 10, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*