# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-04
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti faces acute transition crisis with three days until the Conseil Presidentiel de Transition
mandate expires February 7 2026 and no consensus framework emerged from concluded
political dialogue. Internal government division persists as CPT President Voltaire demands
elections while Prime Minister Fils Aime insists security conditions preclude voting. Judge Reyes
halted TPS termination February 2 but Trump administration announced Supreme Court appeal
creating continued uncertainty for 300000 Haitians. Viv Ansanm coalition attacked Croix des
Bouquets sports facility February 1 while PNH neutralized three armed individuals. Bolt aircraft
emergency landing near Les Cayes February 3 highlights aviation infrastructure fragility.
Exchange rate stable at 130.77 HTG per USD.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Three day political dialogue concluded without producing transition framework for post February
7 governance
Federal judge blocked TPS termination but Trump administration filing Supreme Court appeal
Viv Ansanm gang attacked sports ranch in Croix des Bouquets while PNH killed three terrorists
in counter operation
Bolt commercial aircraft made emergency landing near Les Cayes with no casualties
Exchange rate remains stable despite political uncertainty



## DEVELOPMENT 1

Three days before constitutional mandate expiration the Conseil Presidentiel de Transition faces
dissolution without successor framework. The three day Assises de suivi du dialogue politique
interhaïtien concluded February 3 at Petion Ville hotel producing no binding agreement on
transition architecture. Le Nouvelliste assessed the outcome as Four Days Before February 7 a
Disjointed Path of Dialogue reflecting fundamental failure of Haiti political class to construct
viable succession mechanism.
Internal government fractures compound the legitimacy crisis. CPT President Leslie Voltaire
declared there will be elections this year by all means while Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils Aime
maintains security constitutes essential condition for electoral processes. This operational
disagreement on foundational question of electoral feasibility paralyzes decision making in final
mandate hours. Additional tensions emerged as council members allegedly attempted replacing
coordinator Laurent Saint Cyr who opposed January effort to dismiss the Prime Minister.
February 04, 2026

International pressure intensified through January and early February. CARICOM Eminent
Persons Group warned January 9 they remain deeply concerned by tardiness of stakeholders to
find common ground noting failure could lead to unwanted repercussions and time is of the
essence. United Nations United States and Organization of American States reiterated the April
2024 Agreement establishing CPT explicitly prohibits mandate extension beyond February 7
deadline. UN envoy previously indicated constitutional fallback permits Prime Minister
continuation without presidential oversight structure if political agreement fails.
Prime Minister Fils Aime reportedly negotiating post February 7 continuation arrangement
absent presidential council oversight. This creates legitimacy questions with opposition
movements and international partners given lack of formal political consensus. Multiple
competing frameworks exist including 70 Party Coalition proposal COPPOS Haiti structure
Montana Accord provisions and Civil Society Initiative but no unifying mechanism commands
sufficient stakeholder support to enable orderly transition.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The April 2024 Agreement established the Conseil Presidentiel de Transition with explicit
mandate termination February 7 2026 as interim governance structure following President
Jovenel Moise assassination and Prime Minister Ariel Henry resignation. The CPT represented
compromise among domestic political factions international partners and civil society to create
transitional authority capable of organizing elections and restoring constitutional order.



## TALKING POINTS

CPT mandate expires February 7 2026 per April 2024 Agreement with no agreed successor
framework
Internal government split on electoral feasibility Voltaire demands elections while Fils Aime cites
security prerequisites
Prime Minister negotiating continuation without presidential oversight creating legitimacy
concerns
International partners CARICOM UN US OAS explicitly oppose mandate extension
Constitutional provision permits Prime Minister continuation if political agreement fails
Multiple competing transition proposals exist but none commands sufficient consensus
February 04, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should pre position operational flexibility for engagement with interim
authorities likely PM Fils Aime continuation while maintaining humanitarian operations firewall
from political negotiations
Political actors must prioritize pragmatic agreement in 72 hour window recognizing constitutional
PM continuation fallback provides legal basis but lacks political legitimacy
Diaspora networks should coordinate messaging emphasizing constitutional compliance and
stakeholder dialogue necessity
Private sector should maintain minimal operational footprint until post February 7 governance
structures clarified
All stakeholders should prepare contingency protocols for potential legitimacy disputes or
parallel authority claims
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

United States District Judge Ana Reyes issued February 2 2026 preliminary injunction blocking
Trump administration Temporary Protected Status termination for Haiti El Salvador Nicaragua
and Sudan. The ruling provides immediate reprieve for approximately 300000 Haitian TPS
beneficiaries whose work authorization and deportation protection faced March 10 2026
expiration. Judge Reyes determined plaintiffs demonstrated substantial likelihood of success on
procedural grounds finding administration failed proper Administrative Procedure Act
compliance in termination process.
Trump administration announced intention to appeal directly to Supreme Court seeking
emergency stay of injunction. Department of Homeland Security characterized the ruling as
judicial overreach into executive immigration authority. Supreme Court filing expected within 5 to
7 days with accelerated briefing schedule likely given deportation protection implications for
hundreds of thousands. Legal experts assess Court composition favors administration on
executive power questions but procedural violations finding complicates appeal strategy.
February 04, 2026

Work authorization documents remain valid during litigation with automatic extension provisions
triggered by preliminary injunction. However uncertainty persists for long term planning as
Supreme Court could reverse district court decision or remand for expedited administrative
review. Haitian diaspora organizations mobilizing Congressional advocacy for legislative TPS
extension independent of court proceedings recognizing judicial protection remains vulnerable
to reversal.
Economic implications extend beyond individual beneficiaries to remittance flows supporting
Haiti humanitarian conditions. Haitian TPS holders remitted estimated 400 million USD annually
to family networks in Haiti representing critical economic lifeline amid gang violence and state
collapse. Termination would eliminate this income source while forcing recipients to liquidate US
based assets and disrupt established community networks across Florida New York
Massachusetts and other concentration areas.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti received initial TPS designation following January 2010 earthquake with subsequent
redesignations based on political instability and humanitarian conditions. Trump first
administration attempted 2018 termination blocked by courts on discriminatory intent grounds.
Biden administration maintained protections through 2024. Current termination effort represents
renewed Trump executive authority assertion over immigration policy following January 2025
inauguration.



## TALKING POINTS

Judge Reyes blocked TPS termination February 2 2026 finding procedural violations in
administration process
300000 Haitian beneficiaries retain work authorization and deportation protection during
litigation
Trump administration filing Supreme Court appeal seeking emergency reversal within days
Haitian diaspora remittances total 400 million USD annually representing critical economic
lifeline
Congressional advocacy pursuing legislative TPS extension independent of court proceedings
Work authorization automatically extended during legal proceedings maintaining employment
continuity
February 04, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Haitian TPS holders should document employment continuity and maintain valid identification
during appeal period
Diaspora organizations must coordinate legal defense fund contributions and Congressional
lobbying campaigns
Families in Haiti should prepare financial contingency plans for potential remittance disruption if
Supreme Court reverses
Immigration attorneys should counsel clients on permanent residency pathways independent of
TPS status
Community organizations should establish rapid response networks for information
dissemination on court developments
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

Viv Ansanm terrorist coalition executed February 1 2026 attack on The Ranch sports facility in
Croix des Bouquets commune involving vandalism looting and partial arson. Videos circulated
on social media February 1 evening showing armed individuals systematically destroying
property and removing equipment from the recreational complex. The facility served as
community sports venue in commune increasingly dominated by 400 Mawozo gang operations
part of broader Viv Ansanm alliance controlling estimated 80 to 90 percent of Port au Prince
metropolitan area.
Police Nationale d Haitii conducted counter operations in Croix des Bouquets February 1
neutralizing three armed individuals and seizing two assault rifles including AK 47 and HK G3
weapons systems. PNH characterized deceased as terrorists consistent with US State
Department May 2025 designation of Viv Ansanm as Foreign Terrorist Organization. Radio
Television Caraibes reported January 31 operations in same area resulted in more than eight
gang members killed indicating sustained PNH pressure campaign in 400 Mawozo territory.
Territorial control dynamics show 400 Mawozo dominance in Croix des Bouquets extending
February 04, 2026

gang influence east of Port au Prince toward Dominican border corridor. Viv Ansanm coalition
formation November 2024 unified previously competing armed groups under coordinated
command structure enabling synchronized operations across multiple Port au Prince
communes. The coalition demonstrated capacity for multi front attacks on police infrastructure
government facilities and economic targets throughout 2025.
Security environment assessment indicates PNH maintaining tactical initiative through targeted
operations despite inferior manpower and equipment relative to gang forces. International
support through Kenya led Multinational Security Support mission provides equipment training
and operational coordination but force generation remains below authorized 2500 personnel
with approximately 400 Kenyan police deployed as of January 2026. Gang violence metrics
show continued civilian casualties with ACLED data recording over 5000 deaths in 2025 gang
related incidents.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Viv Ansanm coalition formed November 2024 unifying Jimmy Cherizier led G9 federation with G
Pep faction and independent gangs under common command. United States designated Viv
Ansanm as Foreign Terrorist Organization May 2025 citing systematic attacks on civilians
infrastructure and democratic institutions. 400 Mawozo gained prominence through 2021
missionary kidnapping and subsequent territorial expansion in Croix des Bouquets and Plaine
du Cul de Sac regions.



## TALKING POINTS

Viv Ansanm attacked sports facility in Croix des Bouquets February 1 with vandalism looting
and arson
PNH neutralized three armed terrorists and seized assault rifles in counter operation same day
400 Mawozo gang controls Croix des Bouquets as part of Viv Ansanm coalition dominating Port
au Prince
PNH conducting sustained pressure operations despite resource constraints and numerical
disadvantage
Kenya led multinational force provides support but remains below authorized strength with 400
personnel deployed
Gang violence caused over 5000 deaths in 2025 with civilian population bearing primary
casualties
February 04, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should maintain security protocols assuming continued gang
territorial control in Port au Prince environs
Private sector operations must factor gang extortion and infrastructure attacks into operational
risk assessments
Humanitarian actors should coordinate security information sharing through existing UN OCHA
mechanisms
Kenyan mission donors should accelerate force generation to reach 2500 authorized personnel
enabling expanded operations
PNH equipment and training support remains critical priority for sustaining operational tempo
against gang networks
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

Bolt commercial aircraft registration N45SR operating Port au Prince to Les Cayes route
executed emergency landing February 3 2026 in Demion locality Fonfreda commune near Les
Cayes. The Piper PA 31 350 Navajo Chieftain carried pilot and five passengers all reported safe
without injuries following forced landing. Le Nouvelliste confirmed incident occurred in second
communal section of Les Cayes municipality with aircraft sustaining undisclosed damage
requiring investigation.
Incident highlights fragility of Haiti domestic aviation infrastructure serving as critical transport
link between Port au Prince and provincial cities. Federal Aviation Administration prohibition on
US commercial flights continues through March 7 2026 following November 2024 gang gunfire
incidents targeting Spirit Airlines and JetBlue aircraft during approach to Toussaint Louverture
International Airport. Domestic carriers including Bolt Sunrise Airways and Tortug Air provide
only air connectivity with Les Cayes Jeremie Cap Haitien and other provincial destinations given
gang control of surface routes.
Aviation safety environment assessment indicates multiple risk factors including limited
February 04, 2026

maintenance infrastructure aging aircraft fleets minimal air traffic control capabilities and
potential ground fire threats near airports in contested areas. Bolt operates small fleet of Piper
Navajo aircraft designed for short field operations and inter island Caribbean routes. The
emergency landing represents third reported Bolt incident in 18 months following July 2024
mechanical diversion and November 2024 aborted takeoff.
Provincial isolation consequences extend beyond passenger inconvenience to humanitarian
logistics challenges. International organizations and NGOs rely on domestic aviation for
personnel movement medical evacuations and time sensitive cargo including medical supplies
and emergency communications equipment. Sustained aviation disruptions would effectively
sever Port au Prince from southern peninsula and northern departments absent viable surface
transport alternatives through gang controlled terrain.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

FAA issued November 14 2024 Notice to Air Missions prohibiting US air carrier operations to
Haiti following Spirit Airlines and JetBlue aircraft struck by gunfire during landing approach.
Gang controlled areas surrounding Toussaint Louverture International Airport enabled direct fire
on aircraft flight paths. Prohibition extends through March 7 2026 with renewal possible pending
security environment assessment.



## TALKING POINTS

Bolt aircraft made emergency landing near Les Cayes February 3 2026 with no casualties
reported
Piper Navajo turboprop operated Port au Prince to Les Cayes route when mechanical issues
forced landing
FAA ban on US commercial flights continues through March 7 2026 following gang gunfire
incidents
Domestic carriers provide only air connectivity to provincial cities given gang surface route
control
Aviation infrastructure constraints include aging aircraft limited maintenance facilities and
minimal air traffic control
Provincial isolation threatens humanitarian logistics and emergency medical evacuation
capabilities
February 04, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should maintain chartered flight contracts with multiple domestic
carriers ensuring operational redundancy
Private sector should assess aviation dependent operations for disruption contingencies
including surface convoy alternatives
Humanitarian actors must pre position emergency supplies in provincial locations reducing
dependence on just in time air logistics
Diplomatic missions should coordinate emergency evacuation protocols with domestic carriers
and military airlift options
Aviation regulators should prioritize maintenance oversight and safety inspections of domestic
carrier fleets
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Trump administration files Supreme Court emergency appeal on TPS injunction with Court
response indicating accelerated review schedule or denial. Political actors make final positioning
statements ahead of February 7 mandate expiration. Prime Minister Fils Aime may announce
continuation arrangement or CPT issues joint statement on transition framework. PNH continues
Croix des Bouquets area operations with potential gang counter attacks or tactical withdrawals.



## THIS WEEK

February 7 2026 CPT mandate expiration occurs with critical question of who addresses nation
and whether dissolution ceremony conducted. International partners issue statements on
recognition of post transition governance arrangements. Gang networks may exploit political
uncertainty through coordinated attacks on infrastructure or symbolic targets. Senate action on
HOPE HELP legislation renewal determines textile sector viability. Supreme Court indicates
timeline for TPS appeal consideration.
February 04, 2026



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Constitutional legitimacy questions intensify if Prime Minister continues without political
consensus creating parallel authority risks. Gang territorial control expands if PNH operational
tempo cannot sustain absent international force reinforcement. Humanitarian conditions
deteriorate further if aviation disruptions compound surface transport constraints isolating
provincial populations. TPS uncertainty resolves through Supreme Court ruling or Congressional
legislative action affecting 300000 Haitian beneficiaries and 400 million USD annual remittance
flows.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Le Nouvelliste Haiti daily newspaper reporting on political dialogue and CPT transition February
3 2026
Vant Bef Info Haiti news portal coverage of political dialogue conclusion February 3 2026
ICI Haiti news portal PNH operations reporting and security incidents February 1 2026
Haiti 24 news service Bolt aircraft emergency landing coverage February 3 2026
Aviation Safety Network incident database Bolt N45SR emergency landing February 3 2026
ABC News reporting on FAA Haiti flight ban and November 2024 gunfire incidents
Through the Immigration Lens legal analysis of Judge Reyes TPS ruling February 2 2026
Radio Television Caraibes PNH operations reporting Croix des Bouquets January 31 February 1
2026
ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project Viv Ansanm analysis and gang
violence metrics
Juno 7 Haiti Facebook page exchange rate reporting February 4 2026
UN BINUH mandate renewal reporting and transition coordination January 2026
Haiti Libre news service reporting on OAS statement and political developments February 2026
February 04, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*