# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-03
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

US District Judge Ana Reyes issued a temporary injunction February 2 blocking TPS termination
for 350000 Haitians citing constitutional violations and racial animus. The three day political
dialogue concluded with a proposed facilitation commission but no definitive post February 7
transition framework announced. Haiti National Police announced reconquest operations targeting
gang controlled territories in Port au Prince though no major attacks occurred in the last 24 hours.
The exchange rate remains stable at 130.89 HTG per USD. With four days until the CPT mandate
expires February 7 2026 the absence of agreed succession mechanisms creates acute
institutional risk.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Federal court blocks deportations of 350000 Haitians finding constitutional violations in TPS
termination process
Political dialogue ends without binding transition framework despite February 7 CPT mandate
expiration deadline
PNH announces territorial reconquest strategy amid continued gang control of 80 to 90 percent of
Port au Prince
TPS ruling preserves 4.1 billion dollars annual remittance flows supporting gourde stability short
term



## DEVELOPMENT 1

ANALYTICAL BODY
US District Judge Ana C Reyes issued an 87 page temporary injunction February 2 blocking the
Trump administration from terminating Temporary Protected Status for more than 350000
Haitians. The ruling prevents deportations that were scheduled to begin February 3 2026 and
preserves work authorization for affected individuals while the case undergoes full litigation.
Judge Reyes found that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem violated due
process requirements and the Fifth Amendment equal protection clause when deciding to
terminate TPS.
The court determined that Secretary Noem preordained her termination decision based on
hostility to nonwhite immigrants rather than conducting the required assessment of whether
conditions in Haiti permit safe return. Judge Reyes cited Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly
acknowledging Haiti faces immediate security challenges while simultaneously the administration
moved forward with deportation plans. The judge rejected the administration national interest
argument as fundamentally flawed noting it focused on Haitians outside the US or residing
February 03, 2026

illegally while overlooking that current TPS holders are legally present with valid status.
Judge Reyes directly addressed President Trump derogatory statements about Haiti writing that
no one rationally could defend such statements. The court found substantial likelihood that racial
animus influenced the termination decision. The November 28 2025 Federal Register notice from
Secretary Noem claimed termination was required because TPS continuation was contrary to
national interest even if extraordinary and temporary conditions existed in Haiti. This reasoning
contradicted the statutory framework requiring assessment of country conditions rather than
immigration policy preferences.
The immediate effect preserves legal status work authorization and remittance capacity for
350000 TPS holders. Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations planned for Springfield
Ohio Charleroi Pennsylvania San Diego and New York City are on hold. Haiti Libre reported the
Trump administration will appeal to the Supreme Court following this ruling and an earlier July
2025 Brooklyn federal court decision that also blocked attempted TPS termination. The 4.1 billion
dollars in annual remittances representing 18.43 percent of Haiti projected 2026 Gross National
Disposable Income remains protected in the short term.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti was first designated for Temporary Protected Status in January 2010 following the
earthquake that killed over 200000 people and displaced 1.5 million. The designation has been
continuously renewed through successive administrations based on ongoing extraordinary and
temporary conditions including political instability gang violence and humanitarian crisis.



## TALKING POINTS

Constitutional violations and racial animus found in TPS termination process by federal judge
Work authorization preserved for 350000 Haitians preventing February 3 deportation deadline
Remittance flows of 4.1 billion dollars annually protected supporting Haiti economic stability short
term
Supreme Court appeal expected from Trump administration seeking to overturn temporary
injunction
Legal protections temporary pending full litigation outcome creates planning uncertainty for
diaspora



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Diaspora organizations should continue legal defense coordination and Congressional advocacy
for legislative TPS extension
February 03, 2026

Haitian government should engage US State Department on formal country conditions
assessment supporting TPS continuation
International donors should factor TPS litigation timeline into economic stabilization planning for
Haiti
Businesses dependent on remittance flows should prepare contingency scenarios for potential
Supreme Court reversal
Community organizations should provide updated information to TPS holders on work
authorization renewal procedures
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

ANALYTICAL BODY
The three day Assises de suivi du dialogue inter haitien at Hotel Montana concluded February 3
with a proposed facilitation commission but no definitive consensus framework announced for
post February 7 governance. Organized by three CPT members Leslie Voltaire Edgard Leblanc
Fils and Louis Gerard Gilles the summit brought together political parties religious leaders unions
and civil society to negotiate transition architecture with only four days remaining until the
Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires.
Le Nouvelliste February 3 headline captured the situation stating Four Days Before February 7 a
Disjointed Path of Dialogue and assessing that no solution has emerged within Haiti political class
to chart the way forward. Participants acknowledged limited time separating us from the February
7 deadline and discussed gross foreign interference complicating consensus building. The first
day February 1 ended with an attempt to create a facilitation commission according to Gazette
Haiti but operational details structure and authority of this proposed body remain undefined.
Multiple political actors continue to boycott dialogue arguing there is no dialogue possible with the
CPT that must leave power at any cost on February 7. The 70 plus Political Party Coalition
maintains its November 2025 position calling for one year transition excluding all current CPT
members featuring dual executive system with transitional president plus prime minister and
targeting elections in fourth quarter 2026. International actors including United States United
Nations and Organization of American States have stated unequivocally the CPT must be
disbanded by February 7 per Article 13 of the April 3 2024 Agreement which explicitly prohibits
February 03, 2026

mandate extension.
UN Special Representative previously noted constitutional fallback provision allowing prime
minister to remain in office if political actors fail to reach consensus suggesting PM Alix Didier Fils
Aime could continue as caretaker executive. However this approach lacks domestic legitimacy if
opposition political forces reject it. With no binding framework announced and persistent
fragmentation among political actors Haiti faces potential institutional vacuum at midnight
February 7 when CPT legal authority expires. Le Nouvelliste reported February 3 that over 10000
deaths have been recorded during the 22 months of CPT rule from April 2024 through February
2026 encompassing gang violence security operations and self defense group actions.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Transitional Presidential Council was established April 3 2024 through internationally
brokered agreement following Prime Minister Ariel Henry resignation. The nine member council
with seven voting members was tasked with restoring security organizing elections and steering
Haiti toward constitutional government. Article 13 of the founding agreement set February 7 2026
as mandate expiration with explicit prohibition on extension.



## TALKING POINTS

Political dialogue concluded with facilitation commission proposal but no binding transition
framework four days before deadline
70 plus party coalition maintains boycott demanding CPT departure and one year transition with
new leadership structure
International community United States United Nations Organization of American States stated
CPT must disband February 7
Constitutional fallback allows prime minister continuation but lacks domestic legitimacy without
political consensus
Institutional vacuum risk at midnight February 7 when CPT legal authority expires absent agreed
succession mechanism



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Political actors should operationalize facilitation commission immediately with clear mandate
timeline and decision authority
International community should convene emergency consultations February 4 to 6 clarifying
recognition criteria for post February 7 government
CPT members should formally transfer authority to agreed framework or invoke constitutional
provision for PM continuation
February 03, 2026

Civil society organizations should issue joint statement defining minimum legitimacy standards for
transition governance
Regional organizations CARICOM Organization of American States should deploy mediation
teams to broker last minute consensus
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

ANALYTICAL BODY
Haiti National Police announced February 2 to 3 that the reconquest of territories has begun
conducting intensive operations in strategic West Department areas including Bel Air and Delmas
4. The State issued message declaring The Republic is holding firm Security forces are on the
offensive results are gradual but tangible and the authorities determination remains absolute The
State will not back down The rule of law will be restored. No major gang attacks or security
incidents were reported in the last 24 hours continuing pattern of relative calm following US
Embassy January 31 security alert.
Recent operations include February 1 joint PNH Task Force operation in Croix des Bouquets that
killed at least eight gang members and seized two weapons. January 31 operation targeting 400
Mawozo gang killed leaders known as Zotolan and Ti Pikan prompting retaliatory attack on
Tabarre 27. January 30 Viv Ansanm coalition attack in Tet Ka Jak Marigot killed six to seven
people including one child wounded four and resulted in houses burned and businesses looted.
The operational tempo reflects tactical pressure on gang networks but does not represent
fundamental territorial control shift.
Armed gangs continue to control 80 to 90 percent of Port au Prince with most authoritative
sources converging on approximately 90 percent. Americas Quarterly February 1 analysis
characterized this as criminal governance noting gangs do not just terrorize they govern taxing
residents settling disputes controlling market access and deciding who may work trade or leave.
The Gang Suppression Force remains severely understrength at approximately 950 to 1000
personnel primarily 700 plus Kenyan police against authorized ceiling of 5550. UN spokesperson
Stephane Dujarric confirmed February 3 that UN Support Office providing logistical support to
GSF is advancing toward March 31 2026 operational deadline.
February 03, 2026

BINUH documented 5915 deaths and 2708 injuries in calendar year 2025 with fourth quarter
alone accounting for 1523 deaths and 806 injuries. Significantly 62 percent of fourth quarter
casualties resulted from security force operations including private military contractor drone
strikes 32 percent from gang violence and six percent from self defense groups. UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk assessed that most drone strikes conducted by
Vectus Global are likely unlawful under international human rights law. Between March 1 and
December 30 2025 drone strikes resulted in 973 deaths including 934 suspected gang members
and 39 residents including 16 children.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Port au Prince gang control expanded dramatically following July 2021 presidential assassination
and accelerated after February 2024 coordinated Viv Ansanm offensive that forced Prime Minister
Ariel Henry to resign. The Gang Suppression Force authorized by UN Security Council Resolution
in October 2024 began deployment December 2024 but remains far below required strength
limiting operational effectiveness.



## TALKING POINTS

PNH announced reconquest strategy with operations in Bel Air Delmas 4 targeting gang
strongholds
No major attacks in last 24 hours but gangs retain control of 80 to 90 percent of Port au Prince
Gang Suppression Force severely understrength at 950 to 1000 personnel against 5550
authorized ceiling
62 percent of fourth quarter 2025 casualties from security force operations including controversial
drone strikes
UN Support Office advancing toward March 31 operational deadline providing logistical backbone
for GSF



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International donors should accelerate GSF force generation to reach minimum 3000 personnel
by April 2026
PNH leadership should publish territorial control assessment methodology and progress metrics
monthly
UN human rights office should establish independent investigation mechanism for civilian
casualties from security operations
Humanitarian organizations should pre position supplies in newly accessible neighborhoods as
PNH reconquest advances
Private sector should coordinate with PNH on graduated resumption of commercial operations in
February 03, 2026

contested zones
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

ANALYTICAL BODY
The convergence of TPS litigation uncertainty political transition impasse and security
fragmentation creates acute operational constraints for businesses humanitarian organizations
and diaspora networks through February and March 2026. The temporary injunction preserving
TPS status provides short term relief but Supreme Court appeal timeline remains undefined
creating planning paralysis for employers educational institutions and social service providers
serving 350000 protected individuals.
Infrastructure constraints compound operational difficulties. Federal Aviation Administration ban
on US carriers serving Toussaint Louverture International Airport extends through March 7 2026
forcing reliance on Caribbean regional carriers with limited capacity. Gang control of port
approach roads disrupts container terminal operations. Peligre hydroelectric facility remains offline
since June 2025 resulting in severe electricity rationing affecting telecommunications cold chain
medical equipment and commercial operations. Exchange rate stability at 130.89 HTG per USD
depends heavily on continued remittance inflows which TPS preservation maintains but
deportation risk threatens.
More than 1.4 million people remain internally displaced with over 50 percent of Haiti 12 million
population facing acute food insecurity according to International Rescue Committee Emergency
Watchlist. The UN humanitarian appeal targets 4.2 million vulnerable people requiring 880 million
dollars but effective disbursement requires recognized government counterparts. BINUH mandate
renewed through January 2027 provides mission continuity but UN agencies face potential
legitimacy challenges coordinating with post February 7 authorities if political transition remains
contested.
Business planning horizons remain constrained to weeks rather than months. Contract
negotiations investment commitments and strategic expansion decisions are impossible until
February 7 succession clarified and security trajectory established. Senate consideration of
HOPE HELP textile program extension is critical for formal employment sector but timeline
February 03, 2026

uncertain. Firms should plan for 12 to 18 month continuation of difficult conditions as security
gains require sustained GSF deployment with summer 2026 earliest plausible inflection point for
gradual improvement.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti economic vulnerabilities reflect decades of underinvestment compounded by 2010
earthquake 2016 Hurricane Matthew and political instability cycles. Remittances became
increasingly central to economic stability reaching 18 to 19 percent of Gross National Disposable
Income making diaspora policy decisions such as TPS termination systemically significant for
macroeconomic performance.



## TALKING POINTS

TPS ruling provides temporary relief but Supreme Court appeal creates planning uncertainty for
350000 Haitians
Infrastructure constraints include airport ban through March 7 gang disrupted port access offline
hydroelectric capacity
1.4 million internally displaced over 50 percent population facing acute food insecurity per
humanitarian assessments
Business planning horizons compressed to weeks not months pending political transition
clarification
12 to 18 month difficult conditions baseline with summer 2026 earliest gradual improvement
scenario



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Businesses should develop dual scenario contingency plans for TPS preservation versus
Supreme Court reversal outcomes
Humanitarian organizations should pre position three month supply buffers anticipating potential
post February 7 distribution disruptions
Diaspora organizations should coordinate remittance transfer alternatives if traditional banking
channels face political transition complications
International financial institutions should prepare emergency liquidity facilities if political vacuum
triggers gourde instability
Educational institutions serving TPS holders should communicate clearly on enrollment continuity
regardless of litigation timeline
February 03, 2026

CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Trump administration Supreme Court filing expected February 3 to 4 seeking emergency stay to
overturn TPS injunction which would trigger immediate deportation resumption planning. February
7 transition mechanics including whether CPT holds formal dissolution ceremony who addresses
nation and whether PM Fils Aime announces caretaker role will determine legitimacy trajectory for
post transition governance. Gang strategic positioning during transition period for potential
violence escalation or negotiation leverage merits close monitoring.



## THIS WEEK

International donor statements February 7 to 8 clarifying recognition of post February 7
government and funding commitment decisions will establish operational baseline for
humanitarian and development programs. Post February 7 governance implementation
specifically whether facilitation commission materializes or PM Fils Aime continuation becomes
default will shape institutional legitimacy through remainder of transition. GSF Special
Representative Jack Christofides assumes post mid February with initial security strategy
assessment expected within first two weeks.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Electoral timeline clarity becomes critical if May 19 campaign launch approaches without voter
registration completion or security improvements forcing CEP postponement decision. Senate
action on HOPE HELP textile program extension will determine formal employment sector viability
through 2026. TPS legal process timeline for Supreme Court hearing with potential for oral
arguments or summary ruling establishes planning parameters for diaspora and remittance
dependent economic sectors. UNSOH March 31 operational deadline for UN support office
providing GSF logistics serves as deployment progress indicator.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Reuters US Judge Halts Trump Plan to End Protections for 350000 Haitians February 3 2026
Haiti Libre Haiti Flash TPS Revocation Blocked by the Courts Trump Will Appeal to the Supreme
February 03, 2026

Court February 2 2026
Notus Judge Ruling Temporary Protected Status Haitians Expiration February 2 2026
New York Times Federal Judge Blocks Deportation of Hundreds of Thousands of Haitians
February 2 2026
Gazette Haiti Political Dialogue Facilitation Commission February 3 2026
Rezo Nodwes Political Party Coalition Position February 2026
UN News Haiti Time to Find Common Ground Ahead of 7 February January 20 2026
Haiti Libre Haiti Insecurity The Reconquest of Territories Has Begun February 2 2026
Le Nouvelliste Haiti Cacophony Erodes Last Vestiges of Sovereignty February 3 2026
AlterPresse Assises de Suivi du Dialogue Inter Haitien February 1 2026
Tripfoumi Croix des Bouquets Gang Leaders Killed Police Operation January 31 2026
Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker Haiti January 2026
February 03, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*