# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-27
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: On January 26 CPT President Laurent Saint-Cyr and Prime](#development-1-on-january-26-cpt-president-laurent-saint-cyr-and-prime)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: United States Department of State announced visa restrictions](#development-2-united-states-department-of-state-announced-visa-restrictions)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: Two aircraft sustained gunfire damage at Toussaint Louverture](#development-3-two-aircraft-sustained-gunfire-damage-at-toussaint-louverture)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: Former interim president Jocelerme Privert stated in January 27 Le](#development-4-former-interim-president-jocelerme-privert-stated-in-january-27-le)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime executive axis consolidated operational authority over
FAd'H and PNH on January 26 through coordinated high-level visits framing security
forces under a territorial reconquest narrative. United States visa restrictions against
two unnamed CPT members for gang facilitation escalated international pressure on
the transitional council eleven days before its February 7 2027 mandate expiration.
Aviation security collapsed further when gunfire struck two aircraft at Toussaint
Louverture International Airport on January 25 suspending the sole remaining
international route and extending functional isolation of the capital. No large-scale gang
offensives materialized but territorial control dynamics and political succession
uncertainty remain the dominant variables shaping near-term trajectory.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime visited FAd'H headquarters January 26 pledging
modernization and operational support for territorial reconquest operations.
United States imposed visa restrictions on two CPT members for obstructing anti-gang
efforts and facilitating designated terrorist organizations under INA 212(a)(3)(C).
Two planes struck by gunfire at Toussaint Louverture January 25 suspending last
operational international connection pending security review.
Former interim president Privert stated no institutional vacuum will occur after February
7 2027 arguing constitutional provisions allow government continuity.
No new CEP electoral calendar adjustments or major gang offensives reported in last
twenty-four hours.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: On January 26 CPT President Laurent Saint-Cyr and Prime

Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime conducted an official visit to FAd'H General Headquarters
accompanied by Defense Minister Jean Michel Moise. The leadership trio delivered
public messaging emphasizing State support for army modernization and operational
capacity enhancement. Fils-Aime pledged to strengthen FAd'H logistical and human
resources enabling the institution to fulfill its constitutional mandate alongside PNH in
territorial reconquest operations. The visit represents the latest in systematic executive
engagement with both security forces under unified command messaging.
The Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime tandem has now engaged both PNH and FAd'H
leadership within forty-eight hours positioning themselves as the legitimate security
January 27, 2026

policy coordinators. HaitiLibre reporting characterized the engagement pattern as
establishing executive authority over security operations independent of full CPT
consensus. The synchronized visits signal an operational power consolidation strategy
as February 7 2027 approaches with no formal succession mechanism in place.
The executive coordination occurred against backdrop of continued United States
pressure on CPT composition and governance legitimacy. Acting PNH Director General
Vladimir Paraison received similar high-level engagement messaging State support for
ongoing anti-gang operations. No public statements from other CPT members
accompanied the security force visits suggesting potential internal council
fragmentation on security policy coordination.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

FAd'H was reconstituted in 2017 after twenty-two years of dissolution following the
1995 demobilization under international pressure. The institution has struggled to
establish operational capacity and clear constitutional mandate distinct from PNH
creating persistent civil-military coordination challenges.



## TALKING POINTS

Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime positioning themselves as unified executive authority over
security policy independent of full CPT consensus.
FAd'H modernization pledge represents resource commitment signal but operational
capacity gaps remain substantial.
Executive security coordination intensifies as February 7 2027 deadline approaches
without formal succession plan.
Systematic engagement of both PNH and FAd'H within forty-eight hours demonstrates
deliberate authority consolidation strategy.
No public CPT member statements accompanying visits suggests potential internal
fragmentation on security governance.
Pattern establishes Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime as dominant executive actors in transition
period.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International partners should assess whether Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime executive
January 27, 2026

consolidation represents stabilizing coordination or premature authority concentration
ahead of mandate expiration.
Security assistance programs should clarify command and control expectations
between CPT political authority and executive operational leadership.
Private sector actors should evaluate whether unified security messaging reduces
operational risk or creates succession uncertainty.
Diplomatic missions should determine position on executive authority claims in
absence of formal CPT consensus on security policy.
Civil society monitors should track whether FAd'H modernization commitments
translate to budget allocations and operational deployments.
Political stakeholders should assess whether security force engagement pattern signals
post-February 7 2027 governance model.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: United States Department of State announced visa restrictions

against two unnamed CPT members and their immediate families on January 25 under
Immigration and Nationality Act Section 212(a)(3)(C) for involvement in gang operations
and obstruction of efforts against federally designated foreign terrorist organizations.
The measures represent first direct United States sanctions targeting sitting CPT
members since council formation in April 2024. State Department declined to identify
sanctioned individuals citing standard diplomatic procedure but Reuters reporting
confirmed restrictions target CPT members for facilitating gang activities and
undermining government counter-gang operations.
The sanctions timing eleven days before CPT mandate expiration on February 7 2027
signals escalating United States impatience with transitional governance performance
and composition. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly urged CPT dissolution
by mandate deadline while supporting Fils-Aime continuation as prime minister. The
visa restriction mechanism allows targeted pressure without formal asset freezes or
travel bans that would require Treasury Department coordination and broader
international consensus.
January 27, 2026

HaitiLibre characterized the measures as unprecedented direct sanctions against CPT
leadership marking shift from diplomatic pressure to accountability mechanisms. No
CPT official response or member identification has emerged in forty-eight hours since
announcement suggesting internal disagreement on public positioning. The unnamed
nature of sanctions creates uncertainty about which members face restrictions
potentially amplifying internal council tensions.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Section 212(a)(3)(C) of Immigration and Nationality Act authorizes visa restrictions for
individuals whose entry would have potentially serious adverse foreign policy
consequences. Previous Haiti-related applications targeted officials under Martelly and
Moise administrations for corruption and human rights violations.



## TALKING POINTS

First direct United States sanctions against sitting CPT members represents diplomatic
escalation beyond verbal pressure.
Timing eleven days before February 7 2027 mandate expiration maximizes political
impact on succession negotiations.
Unnamed sanction targets create internal uncertainty about which members face
restrictions potentially amplifying council fragmentation.
Rubio position supporting CPT dissolution and Fils-Aime continuation now backed by
accountability measures not just rhetoric.
Visa restriction mechanism allows targeted pressure without requiring Treasury asset
freezes or broader international coordination.
No CPT official response in forty-eight hours suggests internal disagreement on public
positioning strategy.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should assess whether United States sanctions signal
coordinated multilateral pressure campaign or unilateral escalation.
Political actors should evaluate bargaining position relative to United States preference
for CPT dissolution and Fils-Aime continuation.
Private sector stakeholders should determine whether sanctions reduce governance
uncertainty or increase political volatility ahead of mandate expiration.
January 27, 2026

Diaspora communities should monitor whether additional CPT members face similar
restrictions in coming days.
Civil society monitors should track whether sanctions produce CPT composition
changes before February 7 2027 deadline.
Legal advisors should clarify implications of unnamed sanctions for business
relationships with CPT members.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: Two aircraft sustained gunfire damage at Toussaint Louverture

International Airport on January 25 prompting Aviation Civile Nationale and Office
National de l'Aviation Civile to launch immediate security investigation and suspend
operations on the sole remaining international connection. The targeted planes served
Brazil family reunification route representing last functional international passenger
service after Federal Aviation Administration extended United States carrier prohibition
through March 7 and ZED Airlines suspended operations. AAN and OFNAC announced
reinforced security protocols but provided no timeline for service restoration.
The aviation attack eliminates remaining international passenger connectivity
effectively isolating Port-au-Prince from direct commercial air travel. Toussaint
Louverture now operates under severely restricted conditions with no United States
carrier access no European carrier service and suspended regional connections. The
functional airport closure compounds existing logistical constraints on humanitarian
operations business travel and diplomatic movements. Previous gang attacks on aircraft
in November 2024 triggered initial FAA restrictions that have progressively tightened
rather than relaxed.
The timing coincides with ongoing territorial reconquest narrative from Saint-Cyr and
Fils-Aime executive leadership suggesting security forces have not established airport
perimeter control despite high-level coordination messaging. Gang capacity to target
aircraft demonstrates persistent operational reach into critical infrastructure zones. No
group claimed responsibility but attack pattern mirrors previous strikes attributed to
armed groups contesting government territorial control claims.
January 27, 2026



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Federal Aviation Administration first imposed Haiti flight restrictions in November 2024
after gang gunfire struck multiple commercial aircraft. Restrictions have been extended
quarterly with most recent extension running through March 7 2026 affecting all United
States registered carriers.



## TALKING POINTS

Last remaining international passenger connection now suspended following gunfire
attack on two aircraft January 25.
Port-au-Prince functionally isolated from direct commercial air travel with no service
restoration timeline announced.
Attack demonstrates gang operational reach into airport perimeter despite executive
claims of territorial reconquest progress.
Humanitarian logistics medical evacuations and business operations face increased
constraints from aviation closure.
Federal Aviation Administration ban through March 7 2026 now compounded by
regional carrier suspensions and security incidents.
No responsibility claim emerged but attack pattern consistent with previous gang
targeting of aviation infrastructure.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should evaluate alternative logistics routing through
Cap-Haitien or Dominican border crossings for essential operations.
Humanitarian actors should assess medical evacuation capacity constraints and
pre-position emergency response resources.
Private sector entities should review business continuity plans assuming extended
Port-au-Prince aviation closure.
Diplomatic missions should clarify charter flight security protocols and perimeter control
assessments.
Civil aviation authorities should determine minimum security standards required for
service restoration and timeline feasibility.
Insurance underwriters should reassess aviation risk premiums for Haiti operations
reflecting deteriorated security environment.
January 27, 2026

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: Former interim president Jocelerme Privert stated in January 27 Le

Nouvelliste interview that no institutional vacuum will occur after February 7 2027
arguing constitutional provisions allow prime minister and government continuation
without formal succession authority. Privert position contradicts United States
diplomatic messaging urging CPT dissolution by mandate deadline. Analytical
commentary from Presse-Gauche outlined two competing scenarios for post-February
7 2027 governance: negotiated political arrangement preserving Fils-Aime with
modified CPT role or chaotic transition with competing legitimacy claims.
The constitutional interpretation debate centers on whether government can function
without presidential or transitional presidential authority after CPT mandate expires.
Privert argument relies on provisions allowing ministerial continuity during transition
periods until successor institutions form. United States position through Secretary
Rubio explicitly supports CPT dissolution and Fils-Aime continuation suggesting
external preference for executive authority consolidation over council-based
governance.
No CPT member has publicly endorsed Privert constitutional interpretation or
alternative succession framework in response to United States pressure. The silence
suggests internal disagreement about post-mandate positioning with some members
potentially supporting dissolution and others defending council authority extension. Civil
society proposals circulated in recent weeks have failed to generate political consensus
on succession mechanism creating elevated risk of competing legitimacy claims after
February 7 2027.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti constitutional provisions for government continuity during transitions reflect
January 27, 2026

historical pattern of irregular presidential successions and interim authorities. Previous
transitions including 2004 and 2016 operated under emergency constitutional
interpretations allowing extended interim periods.



## TALKING POINTS

Privert argues constitutional provisions prevent institutional vacuum after February 7
2027 allowing government continuity without formal succession.
United States position explicitly supports CPT dissolution and Fils-Aime continuation
contradicting council authority extension arguments.
No CPT member public response to competing constitutional interpretations suggests
internal fragmentation on post-mandate strategy.
Presse-Gauche analysis identifies negotiated arrangement versus chaotic transition as
primary scenario pathways.
Eleven days remain before mandate expiration with no visible political consensus on
succession mechanism.
Risk of competing legitimacy claims elevated by absence of agreed constitutional
interpretation or negotiated framework.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Political stakeholders should clarify position on constitutional interpretation and
succession framework before February 7 2027 deadline.
International partners should determine whether to recognize government continuity
without CPT authority or maintain pressure for formal succession mechanism.
Private sector actors should evaluate governance risk scenarios and contingency
planning for competing legitimacy claims.
Civil society organizations should intensify mediation efforts to establish consensus
succession framework in remaining eleven-day window.
Legal experts should provide authoritative constitutional analysis on government
authority absent presidential or transitional presidential institution.
Diplomatic missions should coordinate position on recognition criteria for post-February
7 2027 authorities to prevent legitimacy competition.
CONFIDENCE
January 27, 2026

Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor for CPT member identification of sanctioned individuals or official council
response to United States visa restrictions. Track aviation security assessment timeline
and potential service restoration announcements from AAN and OFNAC. Watch for
additional Saint-Cyr or Fils-Aime security force coordination activities signaling
continued executive authority consolidation.



## THIS WEEK

Assess whether additional CPT members face United States or international sanctions
ahead of February 7 2027 deadline. Monitor political party or civil society succession
framework proposals gaining traction. Track gang activity patterns to determine whether
aviation attack signals broader offensive or isolated incident. Evaluate international
partner statements clarifying post-mandate recognition criteria.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

February 7 2027 CPT mandate expiration represents critical inflection point with
competing scenarios of negotiated transition versus institutional fragmentation. United
States pressure for CPT dissolution and Fils-Aime continuation may produce
preemptive council composition changes or trigger legitimacy competition. Aviation
isolation compounds humanitarian and economic constraints potentially accelerating
political pressure for security gains. Electoral timeline credibility depends on succession
mechanism resolution and security environment stabilization.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

HaitiLibre reporting on CPT security coordination and aviation incidents
CPT official Facebook communications
Reuters reporting on United States visa restrictions against CPT members
United States State Department announcement on INA sanctions
Le Nouvelliste interview with former president Jocelerme Privert
Presse-Gauche analytical commentary on February 7 scenarios
January 27, 2026

Aviation Civile Nationale official statement on aircraft gunfire
Office National de l'Aviation Civile security investigation announcement
Federal Aviation Administration Haiti flight restriction extension
Safe Airspace aviation risk assessment for Haiti operations
United Nations news service reporting on gang territorial control
Conseil Electoral Provisoire official electoral calendar
Juno7 reporting on diaspora mobilization for peaceful resolution
January 27, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*