# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-21
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: The Dialogue Concluded Consensus Absent - CPT Three-Day Consultation](#development-1-the-dialogue-concluded-consensus-absent---cpt-three-day-consultation)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: UN Secretary-General Report Confirms Transition At Risk - 8100 Plus Killings in](#development-2-un-secretary-general-report-confirms-transition-at-risk---8100-plus-killings-in)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: BINUH Mandate Expires January 31 in Ten Days - Security Council Briefing](#development-3-binuh-mandate-expires-january-31-in-ten-days---security-council-briefing)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

marks seventeen days until the February 7 Transitional Presidential Council mandate expiration with
the CPT having concluded its three-day national political dialogue without announcing any
consensus governance frameworks or next steps despite consulting all major political forces over
through . The CPT must now examine multiple competing proposals from COPPOS Montana Accord
and other stakeholders to reach final resolution before February 7 leaving a seventeen-day window
that makes proper implementation operationally marginal. The UN Secretary-General report
released January 20 documented more than 8100 killings nationwide between January and
November 2025 and assessed that the transition roadmap has been worryingly slow with the
objective of reinstating democratic institutions by February 2026 now at risk. The UN Security
Council receives briefings today on Haiti with BINUH mandate expiring January 31 in ten days.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

CPT concluded three-day dialogue without announcing consensus frameworks despite consulting
every major political force with seventeen days remaining until February 7 mandate expiration.
UN Secretary-General report confirmed 8100 plus killings in eleven months of 2025 and assessed
transition roadmap worryingly slow with February 2026 democratic institution objective now at risk.
BINUH mandate expires January 31 in ten days with no Security Council renewal resolution voted
as of morning.
Security Council briefing expected to address BINUH renewal and post-February 7 scenarios as
international actors position for potential institutional vacuum.
Multiple competing governance proposals submitted to CPT including COPPOS bicephalous
executive Montana Conference of Stakeholders and 70 plus Party Alliance one-year transition
requiring CPT examination and decision in seventeen-day compressed timeline.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: The Dialogue Concluded Consensus Absent - CPT Three-Day Consultation

Produces No Governance Framework With 17 Days Remaining
January 21 2026 marks seventeen days until the February 7 Transitional Presidential Council
mandate expiration with the CPT having concluded its three-day national political dialogue on
January 20 without announcing any specific consensus governance frameworks or next steps for the
post-February 7 transition despite having consulted all major political forces including MORN
Consensus Politique coalition COPPOS-Haiti KOREPAD Montana Accord and December 21 Accord
representatives over seventy-two hours of intensive consultations. The CPT official statement
confirmed the council concluded the third and final day of national dialogue on but provided no
details on outcomes agreements or selected frameworks leaving Haiti with exactly seventeen days
until mandate expiration and no publicly announced governance plan.
January 21, 2026

COPPOS-Haiti spokesperson Diego Pierre confirmed the coalition submitted a formal proposal to
the CPT recommending governance restructuring through a bicephalous executive structure
consisting of both President and Prime Minister the appointment of a new Prime Minister replacing
current PM Garry Conille and the establishment of a consultative organ charged with supervising
constitutional revisions. However the CPT stated it will have to examine the multiple proposals
submitted by different stakeholder groups to reach a final resolution before February 7 confirming
that no consensus was achieved during the three-day dialogue and that the CPT must now conduct
internal deliberations to select or synthesize competing frameworks within the seventeen-day
remaining window.
Le National reported that less than two weeks from the end of its mandate the CPT has not
succeeded in bringing together all political forces despite the intensive three-day consultation
process. This assessment contradicts the CPT optimistic language during the dialogue about quality
exchanges and pertinent proposals and confirms the dialogue failed to produce substantive
consensus. With January 21 and January 22 representing the absolute final opportunity for the CPT
to announce a selected governance framework that would allow even marginally adequate
implementation over sixteen to fifteen remaining days any delays beyond would create fourteen-day
or shorter windows making proper decree drafting stakeholder consultation CPT approval Le
Moniteur publication and public rollout operationally impossible. The alternative scenarios are rushed
implementation with high procedural failure risk unilateral CPT mandate extension triggering 70 plus
Party Alliance and civil society opposition mobilization or institutional vacuum on February 7 with no
agreed successor and competing legitimacy claims.
The multiple competing proposals now requiring CPT examination include the COPPOS
bicephalous executive model the Montana Accord Conference of Stakeholders framework submitted
December 21 2025 calling for collective CPT and PM resignation the 70 plus Party Alliance proposal
from January 14 2026 demanding CPT definitive end on February 7 with new one-year transition
and fourth quarter 2026 elections and the Civil Society Initiative proposal from January 6 2026
recommending a seventeen-member deliberative assembly with interim President from civil society
or high-ranking institutions. The CPT must reconcile these irreconcilable visions reach internal
consensus among nine members and implement chosen framework within seventeen days a
timeline that requires examination three to five days internal CPT decision-making two to three days
decree drafting three to five days stakeholder consultations two to three days CPT approval one to
two days Le Moniteur publication and three to five days public rollout totaling minimum fourteen to
twenty-two days against seventeen-day actual window.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The CPT was established through the April 3 2024 CARICOM Political Accord as the transitional
governance body with mandate to organize elections restore democratic institutions and complete
constitutional transition before expiring February 7 2026. Previous political dialogues in Haiti
including the Montana Accord process 2021 through 2023 and multiple December 2023 through
January 2024 stakeholder consultations similarly failed to produce implementable consensus
frameworks demonstrating structural difficulty in reconciling competing political visions under
January 21, 2026

compressed timelines.



## TALKING POINTS

The CPT three-day dialogue concluded without announcing any consensus governance frameworks
next steps or selected proposals despite consulting all major political forces over seventy-two hours.
COPPOS-Haiti submitted proposal for bicephalous executive new Prime Minister appointment and
consultative organ for constitutional supervision but CPT must examine multiple competing
proposals to reach final resolution before February 7.
Seventeen days remain until February 7 CPT mandate expiration with -representing absolute final
opportunity for framework announcements allowing marginally adequate sixteen to fifteen day
implementation windows.
Le National assessment confirms CPT has not succeeded in bringing together all political forces
contradicting CPT optimistic dialogue language and confirming substantive consensus failure.
Multiple competing proposals now requiring CPT examination include COPPOS bicephalous
executive Montana Conference of Stakeholders 70 plus Party Alliance one-year transition and Civil
Society Initiative seventeen-member assembly creating irreconcilable visions.
Any CPT delays beyond create fourteen-day or shorter insufficient windows guaranteeing either
rushed implementation unilateral extension triggering opposition or February 7 institutional vacuum.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International stakeholders should prepare contingency positioning for February 7 institutional
vacuum scenario given dialogue failure to produce consensus and seventeen-day compressed
implementation timeline making coordinated governance transition operationally marginal.
Private sector and investors should accelerate business continuity planning for February 3 through
February 7 compressed period when TPS expiration coincides with CPT mandate expiration
creating dual governance and migration policy uncertainty.
Political actors should monitor -CPT announcements as absolute final decision point determining
whether seventeen-day window allows implementation or whether rushed processes unilateral
extensions or institutional vacuum scenarios materialize.
Diaspora communities should engage with host country governments regarding TPS extension
coordination and February 7 transition planning as compressed timeline creates migration policy
and governance stability risks simultaneously.
Humanitarian organizations should position resources and contingency protocols for February 3
through February 7 period when governance fragmentation may compound access constraints and
displacement pressures.
January 21, 2026

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: UN Secretary-General Report Confirms Transition At Risk - 8100 Plus Killings in

Eleven Months Democratic Institutions Not Restored by February 2026
The United Nations Secretary-General report released January 20 2026 for Security Council briefing
documented more than 8100 killings nationwide between January and November 2025 representing
an approximate forty-five percent increase year-over-year compared to 5601 killings in full year 2024
and confirmed an increase in child trafficking with children continuing to be used by gangs in
multiple roles including in violent attacks. The report detailed 1.4 million internally displaced persons
representing more than one in ten Haitians having fled their homes due to violence 5.7 million facing
food insecurity with nearly 2 million at emergency levels 1600 schools closed affecting 1.5 million
children lacking access to education in the 2024-2025 school year and cholera remaining a major
public health concern demonstrating comprehensive humanitarian crisis across security
displacement nutrition education and health sectors.
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres assessed that violence has intensified and expanded
geographically exacerbating food insecurity and instability as transitional governance arrangements
near expiry and overdue elections remain urgent. The report explicitly stated that the transition
roadmap initiated after President Moise 2021 assassination has been worryingly slow and that the
objective of reinstating democratic institutions by February 2026 is now at risk representing the UN
most direct public warning to date that Haiti February 7 transition deadline will not be met and that
the CPT transition has failed to achieve its primary mandate of organizing elections and restoring
institutions before February 2026. This assessment was released January 20 the exact day the CPT
concluded its three-day political dialogue creating sharp contradiction between UN confirmation of
transition failure and CPT dialogue optimism about quality exchanges and pertinent proposals.
The 8100 plus killings documented in eleven months of 2025 translates to average 736 killings per
month or 24 killings per day confirming sustained high-intensity gang violence throughout 2025 with
no evidence of reduction despite Multinational Security Support Mission deployment and Haitian
National Police offensive operations. The report finding of increased child trafficking with children
used in violent gang attacks confirms the 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan statistic that fifty
percent of armed group members are forcibly recruited youth and children indicating gang violence
is self-perpetuating through forced child recruitment creating long-term security degradation beyond
immediate killings displacement and infrastructure damage.
The UN assessment that the objective of reinstating democratic institutions by February 2026 is now
at risk combined with the transition roadmap being worryingly slow suggests international actors
have concluded the CPT dialogue process is unlikely to produce viable February 7 framework and
January 21, 2026

are preparing for February 7 institutional vacuum or unilateral CPT actions rather than coordinated
governance transition. afternoon Security Council briefing with BINUH Head Carlos Ruiz Massieu
and UN press briefing will likely provide additional clarity on whether the UN is activating
contingency protocols including potential use of the OAS institutional continuity clause from
November 5 2025 Roadmap designed to avoid power vacuum if CPT expires without legitimate
successor. The timing of the UN report release on January 20 the day CPT dialogue concluded
signals international coordination recognizing CPT process failure and positioning for post-February
7 crisis management.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti transition roadmap was established following President Jovenel Moise assassination July 7
2021 with multiple stakeholder agreements including September 11 2021 Accord February 2023
National Dialogue and April 3 2024 CARICOM Political Accord creating the Transitional Presidential
Council. Each framework projected democratic institution restoration and elections by specific
deadlines that were subsequently missed demonstrating pattern of failed transition timelines with
February 7 2026 representing latest unfulfilled commitment.



## TALKING POINTS

UN Secretary-General report documented 8100 plus killings January through November 2025
representing forty-five percent increase year-over-year and average 24 killings daily confirming
sustained high-intensity violence.
Report confirmed increased child trafficking with children used in violent gang attacks and fifty
percent of armed group members being forcibly recruited youth creating self-perpetuating violence
cycle.
Secretary-General Guterres assessed transition roadmap worryingly slow and objective of
reinstating democratic institutions by February 2026 now at risk representing UN most explicit
warning that February 7 deadline will not be met.
UN report released January 20 the day CPT dialogue concluded creates sharp contradiction
between UN confirmation of transition failure and CPT optimistic dialogue language suggesting
international actors preparing for institutional vacuum.
Humanitarian crisis encompasses 1.4 million IDPs 5.7 million food insecure nearly 2 million at
emergency levels 1600 schools closed 1.5 million children lacking education and cholera remaining
major public health concern.
Security Council briefing and UN press briefing expected to clarify whether UN activating
contingency protocols including OAS institutional continuity clause for February 7 power vacuum
scenario.
January 21, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should accelerate coordination on post-February 7 scenarios including
institutional continuity mechanisms given UN assessment that democratic institution restoration
objective is at risk with seventeen days remaining.
Humanitarian organizations should prepare for compounded crisis during February 3 through
February 7 compressed period when governance fragmentation coincides with existing 1.4 million
IDP displacement and 5.7 million food insecurity situation.
Private sector should incorporate UN violence statistics 24 killings daily average and child trafficking
increase into risk assessments and business continuity protocols recognizing no evidence of
security improvement despite international mission deployment.
Political stakeholders should recognize UN assessment contradicts CPT dialogue optimism and
adjust February 7 planning accordingly to account for likely institutional vacuum or unilateral CPT
actions rather than coordinated transition.
Diaspora advocacy groups should leverage UN findings of transition failure and humanitarian crisis
to press host country governments on TPS extension and migration policy coordination before
February 3 expiration.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: BINUH Mandate Expires January 31 in Ten Days - Security Council Briefing

Today UN Positioning for February 7 Institutional Vacuum
The United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti BINUH mandate expires January 31 2026 in ten days
as of January 21 with no Security Council resolution renewing the mission voted as of morning
creating dual international vacuum scenario where UN coordination capacity withdraws seven days
before the Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires February 7 eliminating international
support infrastructure precisely when Haiti requires maximum diplomatic engagement during
governance transition. afternoon Security Council open session features BINUH Head and Special
Representative Carlos Ruiz Massieu and UNODC Acting Executive Director John Brandolino
briefing Council members on Haiti situation with BINUH renewal and post-February 7 scenarios
expected as primary agenda items followed by January 22 UN press briefing where Ruiz Massieu
will provide additional public positioning.
The ten-day window until January 31 BINUH expiration combined with seventeen-day window until
February 7 CPT expiration creates compressed January 21 through January 31 period determining
January 21, 2026

whether the United Nations maintains presence through Haiti governance transition or withdraws
before CPT mandate expires. Security Council typical practice requires resolution drafting
negotiation among fifteen members and voting procedures requiring minimum five to seven days
meaning that January 21 represents the practical deadline for initiating BINUH renewal process to
allow vote before January 31 expiration. No indication of resolution drafting or negotiation has
appeared in Security Council documentation as of morning suggesting either renewal will occur
through emergency accelerated procedures in final days or BINUH will expire January 31 without
immediate successor.
If BINUH expires January 31 without renewal Haiti will enter the final seven days before February 7
CPT expiration without UN Integrated Office coordination of international diplomatic engagement
humanitarian response monitoring and political facilitation that BINUH has provided since October
15 2019. The United Nations Office for Haiti Security and Governance UNSOH designed to replace
BINUH and support the Global Security Framework GSF is not yet operational and cannot provide
equivalent political coordination functions creating governance support vacuum during most critical
seven-day period February 1 through February 7 when CPT must either implement chosen
framework execute unilateral extension or preside over institutional vacuum scenario.
Security Council briefing with Ruiz Massieu expected to address whether the UN is preparing to
activate OAS institutional continuity clause from November 5 2025 Roadmap which was designed
specifically to avoid power vacuum if CPT expires without legitimate successor. The OAS clause
provides framework for interim governance coordination if both BINUH expires January 31 and CPT
expires February 7 without viable transition creating dual international-national institutional vacuum.
Ruiz Massieu briefing may signal whether UN and OAS have coordinated positioning for this
scenario or whether international actors expect CPT to execute unilateral extension requiring
post-facto legitimization through international recognition.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

BINUH was established October 15 2019 replacing the United Nations Mission for Justice Support in
Haiti MINUJUSTH which itself replaced the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti MINUSTAH
demonstrating continuous UN presence since 2004. Previous UN mission transitions in 2017
MINUSTAH to MINUJUSTH and 2019 MINUJUSTH to BINUH occurred under controlled conditions
with overlapping mandates ensuring coordination continuity unlike current scenario where BINUH
may expire seven days before CPT creating dual vacuum.



## TALKING POINTS

BINUH mandate expires January 31 2026 in ten days with no Security Council renewal resolution
voted as of morning creating potential withdrawal seven days before CPT February 7 expiration.
afternoon Security Council briefing with BINUH Head Ruiz Massieu expected to address renewal
and post-February 7 scenarios followed by UN press briefing providing public positioning.
January 21, 2026

Dual institutional vacuum scenario emerges if BINUH expires January 31 and CPT expires February
7 without successor eliminating UN coordination capacity during most critical seven-day governance
transition period.
represents practical deadline for initiating BINUH renewal process allowing minimum five to seven
days for resolution drafting negotiation and voting before January 31 expiration.
OAS institutional continuity clause from November 5 2025 Roadmap designed to avoid power
vacuum may be activated if both BINUH and CPT expire without coordinated frameworks providing
interim governance coordination.
United Nations Office for Haiti Security and Governance UNSOH not yet operational cannot replace
BINUH political coordination functions during February 1 through February 7 critical period.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security Council members should clarify BINUH renewal timeline immediately during briefing to
prevent dual vacuum scenario where both UN mission and CPT expire within seven days creating
coordination collapse.
International stakeholders should coordinate with OAS on institutional continuity clause activation
procedures recognizing potential necessity if BINUH expires January 31 without renewal and CPT
expires February 7 without successor.
Private sector should prepare for degraded international coordination during February 1 through
February 7 period if BINUH withdrawal precedes CPT expiration eliminating diplomatic facilitation
during governance crisis.
Humanitarian organizations should establish direct coordination with GSF and UNSOH advance
teams to ensure operational continuity if BINUH political coordination withdraws before February 7
governance transition.
Political actors should monitor -UN briefings for signals whether international community expects
CPT unilateral extension requiring post-facto legitimization or coordinated framework
implementation within seventeen-day window.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

January 21, 2026



## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

afternoon January 21 Security Council open session with BINUH Head Carlos Ruiz Massieu will
determine whether UN signals BINUH renewal before January 31 expiration or whether briefing
reveals international positioning for dual institutional vacuum scenario with BINUH expiring seven
days before CPT creating coordination collapse during February 1 through February 7 governance
crisis period.
evening through morning January 21 through January 22 represents absolute final window for CPT
to announce selected governance framework allowing sixteen to fifteen day implementation timeline
before any delays beyond create fourteen-day or shorter insufficient windows guaranteeing rushed
implementation unilateral extension or institutional vacuum on February 7.
January 22 UN press briefing with BINUH Head Ruiz Massieu will provide public positioning on
whether UN and OAS coordinating on institutional continuity clause activation for post-February 7
scenarios or whether international actors expect CPT unilateral extension requiring post-facto
legitimization.



## THIS WEEK

through January 24 through January 26 CPT internal deliberations must produce consensus on
which competing proposal to adopt or synthesize COPPOS bicephalous executive versus Montana
Conference versus 70 plus Party Alliance versus Civil Society Initiative with only six days remaining
in Week 1 of seventeen-day final countdown before Week 2 implementation requirements make
proper decree drafting stakeholder consultation and Le Moniteur publication operationally
impossible.
through January 27 through January 29 Security Council must vote BINUH renewal resolution if
mission is to continue past January 31 expiration requiring emergency accelerated procedures given
typical five to seven day minimum drafting negotiation voting timeline was not initiated by January
21.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

January 31 2026 BINUH mandate expires ten days from creating seven-day vacuum before
February 7 CPT expiration if no renewal voted eliminating UN political coordination diplomatic
facilitation and humanitarian monitoring during most critical governance transition week February 1
through February 7.
February 3 2026 US Temporary Protected Status expires for approximately 350000 Haitians
coinciding four days before CPT mandate expiration creating compressed February 3 through
February 7 dual crisis period when migration policy uncertainty combines with governance
institutional vacuum or rushed unilateral CPT extension.
February 7 2026 Transitional Presidential Council mandate expires seventeen days from with CPT
three-day dialogue having concluded without announced consensus frameworks leaving
January 21, 2026

examination of multiple competing proposals internal CPT decision-making and implementation
requirements totaling minimum fourteen to twenty-two days against seventeen-day actual remaining
window making coordinated governance transition operationally marginal and increasing probability
of either rushed implementation with high failure risk unilateral CPT extension triggering political
opposition or institutional vacuum with competing legitimacy claims.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

1. CPT Facebook Official Page Post January 20 2026 Confirming Dialogue Conclusion
3. Vant Bef Info January 21 2026 CPT Closes Three Days of National Consultations
9. UN Press Release January 21 2026 Security Council Programme of Work Daily Programme
10. Security Council Report January 2026 Monthly Forecast Haiti Section BINUH Expiration
11. Presidency Haiti Twitter Account Status January 19 2026 Dialogue Day One Announcement
12. Gazette University January 18 2026 CPT Launches National Political Dialogue
4. UN News January 20 2026 UN Secretary-General Report on Haiti More Than 8100 Killings
5. NPR January 23 2025 Gangs Could Overrun Haiti Article Quoting UN Assessment Transition At
Risk
6. UN Denmark January 2026 Haiti Explained Why Crisis Deepening Article
7. Human Rights Watch World Report 2025 Haiti Chapter 5601 Killings in 2024
8. Haiti UN Humanitarian Response Plan 2026 Launch Article
14. OAS Press Release November 5 2025 Roadmap Institutional Continuity Clause
January 21, 2026



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*