# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-09
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## FULL TEXT

**December 9, 2025 | 7:00 PM HAT**
Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition

**Day 53 to Election Day (February 1, 2026) | Day 59 to Constitutional Deadline (February 7, 2026)**
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##  QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS
1. ** SECURITY ALERT - Viv Ansanm coalition has fractured**: 49+ killed in Bel-Air massacre as gang leaders
turn on sanctioned boss Kempes Sanon, ending 2+ years of relative stability and triggering new territorial warfare
in Port-au-Prince's core.
2. **GSF conference held but results unknown**: Today's Force Generation Conference in New York concluded
without public announcementsthe silence suggests either ongoing negotiations or failed commitments, leaving the
Feb 1 election timeline in limbo.
3. **Opposition's strategic paralysis continues**: 6 days remain until Dec 15 candidate deadline, yet no major
figures have declaredwaiting for GSF results while violence escalates validates their "elections impossible without
security" positioning.
---
## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Haiti's transition roadmap suffered a catastrophic security setback today as the Viv Ansanm gang coalitionwhich
reduced Port-au-Prince violence since September 2023fractured spectacularly in a Bel-Air massacre that killed
49+ people, including the wounding and dethroning of US-sanctioned gang leader Kempes Sanon. The attack
represents the first major internal breakdown of the "Live Together" coalition, threatening to return the capital to
the pre-2023 era of inter-gang territorial warfare. Simultaneously, today's GSF Force Generation Conference in
New York concluded without any public announcements of troop commitments as of Tuesday eveninga
conspicuous silence that suggests diplomatic failure or protracted negotiations. With 6 days left until the Dec 15
candidate registration deadline, opposition figures remain silent, their strategic patience now validated by
escalating violence that makes "elections impossible without security" arguments politically unassailable. The
convergence of gang coalition collapse and diplomatic uncertainty during the registration window creates the most
dangerous moment of the transition.
**Impact Rating: 10/10 - Critical Multiple Simultaneous Crises**
The Viv Ansanm fracture threatens to reverse 2+ years of relative stability while GSF conference silence leaves
the electoral timeline's viability unknown. These dual crises during candidate registration create maximum
instability.
---
## MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
### DEVELOPMENT #1:  BEL-AIR MASSACRE - VIVAN ANSANM COALITION FRACTURES
**December 9, 2025

HIGH CONFIDENCE** - Multiple international media reports, Committee for Peace and Development
casualty count, attack ongoing as of Tuesday evening.
**What's Happening:**
A major internal conflict within the **Viv Ansanm gang coalition** resulted in at least **49 people killed** in the
**Bel-Air neighborhood** of Port-au-Prince since Monday, December 8, according to the **Committee for Peace
and Development**.[1][2][3] The attack represents the **first major fracture** in the coalition formed in September
2023 to reduce inter-gang violence, which the US designated as a **foreign terrorist organization** in May
2025.[2][1]
**The Attack Details:**
**Kempes Sanon**, a former police officer and leader of the Bel-Air gang (US-sanctioned in October 2025), was
**injured** and subsequently **dethroned** by two rivals known as **Jamesly** and **Ti Gason** while receiving
medical treatment.[2][4][5] **Dèdè**, one of the highest-ranking gang members in Bel-Air, was **beheaded**
during the attack.[3][1]
**Casualty Breakdown:**
Among the 49 confirmed dead: **10 children** (recruited by gangs), **19 gang members**, a man in his 60s
struck by stray bullet, and most horrifically, **19 women** whose partners were gang membersthese women were
**executed by the Krache Dife gang** (allied with Sanon) as they sought medical attention for injured men at a
clinic.[4][2] The attack was continuing as of Tuesday evening, with hundreds of civilians sheltering in place, unable
to access food or basic goods.[5][2]
**Why This Is Catastrophic:**
The Viv Ansanm ("Live Together") coalition formation in September 2023 was the single most important security
development in recent Haitian history. By eliminating inter-gang warfare through territorial agreements, the
coalition reduced daily violence in Port-au-Prince from chaotic shootouts to controlled intimidation. Gang
members could move freely across former rival territories, focusing coordinated pressure on the government
rather than fighting each other. This stabilityperverse as it soundsmade the capital marginally more governable.
**The Coalition's Collapse:**
The attack on Sanon by internal rivals **Jamesly** and **Ti Gason** signals a return to pre-2023 territorial
competition. When gang leaders turn on each other, retaliatory cycles begin: Sanon's allies will seek revenge,
triggering counter-attacks, fragmenting the coalition further. Each faction will attempt to seize territory, displacing
civilians and creating no-go zones. The PNH, already overstretched protecting government perimeters, cannot
intervene in gang-on-gang warfare in Bel-Aira densely populated neighborhood in Port-au-Prince's core.
**UN Intelligence on Sanon:**
A recent UN report noted that Sanon "has played a significant role in consolidating gang power in Port-au-Prince,
particularly through his involvement in the Viv Ansanm alliance." More critically: "Sanon maintains a network of
individuals within governmental institutions, including security agencies, which enables him to evade arrest and
facilitate his criminal activities."[4][2] His wounding and dethroning by rivals suggests either (a) his government
protection network collapsed, or (b) his rivals have stronger networksboth scenarios are destabilizing.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:**
The Viv Ansanm coalition emerged from negotiations following the July 2021 Moïse assassination, when gang
**December 9, 2025

violence reached unprecedented levels. By September 2023, key leaders including **Jimmy "Barbecue"
Chérizier** (G9), **Kempes Sanon** (Bel-Air), and others agreed to cease inter-gang warfare, pooling resources
for territorial control. The coalition's effectiveness was demonstrated in March 2024 when coordinated attacks
forced PM Ariel Henry's resignation. The US foreign terrorist organization designation (May 2025) acknowledged
Viv Ansanm's transformation from loose alliance to structured organization. Today's fracture reverses this
consolidation: If Viv Ansanm splinters into competing factions, Port-au-Prince returns to 2020-2021 chaosmultiple
gangs fighting for territory, daily civilian casualties, complete economic paralysis. The timing (54 days before
elections, during GSF conference, 6 days before candidate deadline) creates maximum destabilization:
Opposition can now argue "elections literally impossible" while the capital burns.
---
### DEVELOPMENT #2: THE "SILENT CONFERENCE" - GSF FORCE GENERATION RESULTS UNKNOWN
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE** - Conference confirmed held Dec 9, attendees verified, but outcomes not
announced as of Tuesday evening (creating uncertainty).
**What's Happening:**
On Tuesday, December 9, the **US co-hosted the Haiti Force Generation Conference** in New York to secure
international troop commitments for the **Gang Suppression Force (GSF)**.[6][7][8] Prime Minister **Alix Didier
Fils-Aimé** traveled to New York on Monday, Dec 8, to participate and announce Haiti's contributions.[7][6] **US
Chargé d'affaires Henry Wooster** represented the US, stating on X: "The United States looks forward to
co-hosting the Haiti Force Generation Conference for the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) on behalf of the
Standing Group of Partners on December 9."[9][7]
**Confirmed Attendees:**
The **Standing Group of Partners** includes Bahamas, Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kenya, and
the US.[10] **Kenya** deployed its **fifth contingent** of police officers to Haiti on December 8, reinforcing the
mission just before the conference.[11]
**Pre-Conference Expectations:**
PM Fils-Aimé stated on November 27 that "the first additional component of the GSF should be on the ground by
mid-December" and expressed hope that by **April 1, 2026**, Haiti will have additional troops capable of
increasing operational capabilities.[12] This timeline suggested imminent force commitments would emerge from
today's conference.
**The Conspicuous Silence:**
As of Tuesday evening (5:30 PM EST), **no official statements or outcomes** from the conference have been
published by the US State Department, PM Fils-Aimé, or any Standing Group partner.[6][7][8][9] This silence is
highly unusual. Successful force generation conferences typically conclude with joint statements announcing
specific commitments: "Country X pledges Y troops by Z date." The absence of such announcements suggests
either:
**Scenario A - Ongoing Negotiations:** Countries are negotiating details (deployment timelines, funding
mechanisms, command structures) and will announce Wednesday.
**Scenario B - Failed Commitments:** Countries refused binding troop pledges, offering only symbolic support
(training, equipment) insufficient for the Feb 1 election timeline.
**December 9, 2025

**Why The Silence Matters:**
The conference was billed as the operational pivotwhere diplomatic promises (UN Security Council Resolution
2793 authorizing 5,500 troops) translate into boots on the ground. PM Fils-Aimé's trip to New York signaled Haiti's
expectation of success. The lack of immediate announcements indicates either negotiations are more complex
than anticipated, or the conference failed to secure commitments. Opposition candidates waiting for clarity now
have justification to delay registration: "We cannot commit to elections when the international community won't
commit troops."
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:**
International conferences on Haiti follow predictable patterns: High-profile gatherings produce aspirational
statements rarely matched by action. The 2024 Kenya-led MSS deployment was announced with fanfare but
delivered only ~2,000 of promised 2,500 troops, and those forces lacked offensive capabilities. The September
2025 UN Security Council resolution authorized 5,500 GSF troops but included the fatal qualifier: "cost of
personnel will be borne by voluntary contributions"diplomatic language meaning no guaranteed funding. Previous
Haiti force generation efforts (2004 MINUSTAH, 2024 MSS) saw countries pledge support at conferences then fail
to deploy on promised timelines. The Dec 9 conference's silence as of Tuesday evening echoes these patterns:
Participants discuss, diplomats negotiate, but binding commitments remain elusive. If Wednesday brings vague
"we remain committed" statements rather than specific troop numbers and timelines, the Feb 1 election date is
effectively deadthe GSF cannot deploy 5,500 troops, train them, and establish territorial control in 53 days.
---
### DEVELOPMENT #3: OPPOSITION'S STRATEGIC SILENCE VALIDATED BY VIOLENCE
HIGH CONFIDENCE** - Registration timeline confirmed (6 days left), opposition silence documented,
Bel-Air violence validates their positioning.
**What's Happening:**
As of Tuesday evening December 9, Haiti's candidate registration period is in its **9th day** with **6 days
remaining** until the December 15 deadline.[13][14] Despite the registration window being 60% complete and
today's GSF conference occurring (the event opposition figures were reportedly waiting for), **no major opposition
candidates have publicly announced** as of Tuesday evening.
**The Strategic Logic Confirmed:**
Yesterday's brief (Dec 8) suggested opposition candidates were waiting for today's GSF conference outcome
before declaring. Today's events **validate this strategy completely**: The conference concluded without public
results, and simultaneously, Port-au-Prince descended into a new gang war. Opposition figures can now argue:
1. **"Elections impossible without security"** - The Bel-Air massacre (49+ dead, coalition fracturing) proves
Port-au-Prince is less secure today than yesterday, moving in the wrong direction.
2. **"International community failed commitments"** - The GSF conference's silence suggests no binding troop
pledges, exposing the Feb 1 timeline as diplomatic fiction unsupported by operational reality.
3. **"We cannot risk legitimizing a failed process"** - Registering candidates for elections that will either be
**December 9, 2025

canceled or conducted under catastrophic security gives the government undeserved legitimacy.
**The Timing Advantage:**
By waiting until Dec 10-15 (the final 6 days), opposition candidates preserve maximum flexibility: If Wednesday
brings surprise GSF commitments AND the Bel-Air situation stabilizes, they can register quickly. If neither occurs,
they announce coordinated boycott Dec 12-13, timed to maximize impact before the Dec 15 deadline while
blaming the government for unrealistic planning.
**The Government's Dilemma:**
The CEP must publish the final candidate list December 22 (13 days from now). If major opposition figures don't
register, the list will be dominated by government-aligned candidates and minor parties, creating a legitimacy
crisis: A president elected without major opposition participation lacks mandate to govern, especially if elected
with low turnout due to insecurity.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:**
Opposition boycotts defined Haiti's 21st-century electoral history: The 2015 presidential election (Michel Martelly
to Jocelerme Privert transition) was annulled after opposition protests over fraud allegations, forcing a do-over.
The 2018 legislative elections proceeded with opposition boycotts, resulting in single-digit turnout in some
communes and a Senate that never achieved quorum. The 2021 constitutional referendum was canceled after
opposition refused to participate, leaving Jovenel Moïse's proposed constitutional changes dead. In each case,
opposition boycotts were announced 2-4 weeks before election dates to build public pressure. The current pattern
breaks precedent: Rather than early boycott announcements, opposition figures are using **strategic
silence**neither committing to participate nor formally boycotting. This approach maximizes pressure on the
government while preserving the option to participate if conditions improve. However, today's events (Bel-Air
massacre + GSF conference silence) make participation increasingly untenable. If opposition announces
coordinated boycott Dec 12-13, they frame it as "we gave the government every chance; they failed to provide
basic security; we cannot legitimize a dangerous farce." This narrative resonates with voters experiencing the
Bel-Air crisis and resonates with international donors questioning the Feb 1 timeline's viability.
---
## IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
###  International Organizations (UN, OAS, NGOs, Embassies)
**The Dual Crisis Reality:**
- **Security Deterioration:** The Viv Ansanm fracture means Port-au-Prince is less secure today than yesterday,
and violence will likely escalate as gangs compete for territory. Your staff safety protocols need immediate review.
- **GSF Conference Silence:** No announced troop commitments as of Tuesday evening means the Feb 1
timeline's foundational assumption (improved security via GSF deployment) is unconfirmed. Without Wednesday
clarity, contingency planning must activate.
- **Electoral Viability Question:** If major opposition boycotts (likely Dec 12-13), elections lack legitimacy even if
technically held. Your observation missions and voter education programs may be supporting a process that
produces an unrecognized government.
TALKING POINT:**
**December 9, 2025

*"Today's developments require immediate assessment. The Bel-Air violence demonstrates security is
deteriorating, not improving, while the GSF conference's lack of public outcomes leaves the electoral timeline's
viability uncertain. Our organization is convening emergency leadership discussions to evaluate whether the
February 1 election remains operationally feasible and politically legitimate."*
**RECOMMENDED DECISION:**
**Wednesday morning emergency call:** (1) Review GSF conference outcomes if announced; (2) Assess Bel-Air
situation and PNH response capacity; (3) Develop **three scenarios** with activation triggers: (a) Elections
proceed (if GSF commitments + violence contained), (b) Elections delayed (if no commitments + violence
escalates), (c) Partial elections/Port-au-Prince only (compromise scenario). Freeze new electoral programming
expenditures until scenario clarity emerges by Dec 12.
---
###  Businesses (Haitian Private Sector, International Firms)
**Immediate Security Implications:**
- **Bel-Air is central Port-au-Prince:** Unlike peripheral gang violence, this conflict affects the capital's commercial
core. Supply routes, employee safety, and operations in downtown areas face immediate threats.
- **Coalition Fracture = Unpredictable Violence:** Viv Ansanm's stability was a perverse advantagegangs were
organized, territories were defined. Fracturing means chaotic violence as factions compete, making risk
assessment nearly impossible.
- **GSF Uncertainty = Extended Insecurity:** If today's conference failed to secure commitments, there is no
cavalry coming. Your Q1 2026 planning must assume current insecurity continues through April-May at minimum.
TALKING POINT:**
*"The Bel-Air gang violence represents a fundamental shift in Port-au-Prince's security environmentfrom
organized coalition control to chaotic territorial competition. Combined with uncertainty over international force
deployments, our business continuity planning now assumes extended instability through Q2 2026, with potential
for escalation if gang warfare spreads beyond Bel-Air."*
**RECOMMENDED DECISION:**
**Immediate actions:** (1) Review employee movement protocolsavoid Bel-Air and adjacent neighborhoods
(Solino, Lower Delmas) indefinitely; (2) Assess supply chain vulnerabilities through Port-au-Prince center; (3)
Activate **dual-track Q1 budgets** discussed yesterdaythe "timeline collapse" scenario is now the primary
planning assumption. Consider scaling back Port-au-Prince operations until Bel-Air situation clarifies (48-72 hours
minimum).
---
###  Political Actors (Parties, Candidates, Civil Society)
**Your Strategic Position Is Now Unassailable:**
- **"Elections Impossible" Is Empirically True:** The Bel-Air massacre (49+ dead, gang coalition fracturing)
happening 53 days before Election Day proves the security situation is deteriorating, not improving. You now have
incontrovertible evidence that nationwide elections are operationally impossible.
- **GSF Conference Silence Validates Your Concerns:** If the international community won't commit troops
publicly after today's high-profile conference, they've tacitly admitted the Feb 1 timeline is unrealistic. Your
**December 9, 2025

skepticism about the government's roadmap is now vindicated.
- **Boycott Is Now Politically Safe:** Registering candidates for elections during a gang war in Port-au-Prince's
core would be political suicidevoters experiencing violence will blame participants for legitimizing a dangerous
process. Not registering is the only rational choice.
TALKING POINT:**
*"Today's tragic violence in Bel-Air49 Haitians killed while our government hosts conferences in New Yorkexposes
the fundamental unseriousness of the February 1 election timeline. We have 6 days until the candidate registration
deadline, and Port-au-Prince is literally burning. Our party will not legitimize a process that places voters in mortal
danger. We call on the government to acknowledge reality: Postpone elections until security is established, or
admit they are holding a sham."*
**RECOMMENDED DECISION:**
**Wednesday morning leadership meeting:** (1) Review GSF conference outcomes if announced; (2) If no binding
troop commitments OR Bel-Air violence continues  **prepare coordinated boycott announcement** for Dec 12-13;
(3) Draft joint statement with other opposition parties: "We gave the government every opportunity; the Bel-Air
massacre proves elections are impossible; we will not participate in a dangerous farce." Frame boycott as
**protective of voters**, not political maneuvering. Time announcement for maximum media impact before Dec 15
deadline.
---
###  Diaspora (Haitian-Americans, Canadian-Haitians, European Diaspora)
**Your Families Face Escalating Danger:**
- **Bel-Air Violence Spreading Risk:** The massacre occurred in Port-au-Prince's center, not periphery. If gang
warfare spreads to Solino, Lower Delmas, or other adjacent neighborhoods, tens of thousands of civilians will be
trapped in crossfire.
- **PNH Cannot Intervene:** Police are overstretched protecting government buildings and diplomatic zones. They
will not intervene in gang-on-gang warfare in densely populated neighborhoodsyour families are on their own.
- **GSF Will Not Arrive In Time:** Even if today's conference secured commitments (uncertain as of Tuesday
evening), troops cannot deploy, train, and establish control in 53 days. Your families face months of insecurity,
minimum.
TALKING POINT:**
*"While Haiti's prime minister attended conferences in New York today, 49 Haitians were killed in Bel-Airincluding
19 women executed seeking medical care. My family in Port-au-Prince is terrified. The international community's
silence on troop commitments proves they've abandoned Haiti. If they won't send forces to stop this violence, they
should at least extend TPS so Haitians here aren't deported into a war zone in 55 days."*
**RECOMMENDED DECISION:**
**Immediate actions:** (1) Contact family members in Port-au-Princeinstruct them to avoid Bel-Air, Solino, Lower
Delmas, and city center until violence subsides; (2) If family lives near affected areas, explore temporary
relocation to safer zones (Pétion-Ville, Tabarre) if economically feasible; (3) **Accelerate contingency planning:**
Emergency funds, communication plans, evacuation routes if violence spreads citywide. The Bel-Air situation
could stabilize in days or spiral into weeks of warfareprepare for worst case. (4) **Advocacy:** Contact
**December 9, 2025

representatives about TPS extensionuse today's massacre as evidence that deportations to Haiti (starting Feb 3)
send people into active war zone.
---
## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
###  CRITICAL: WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10 - GSF CONFERENCE OUTCOMES ANNOUNCEMENT
**What We're Waiting For:**
The conference concluded Tuesday without public results. Wednesday should bring either:
1. **SUCCESS:** Joint statement from US/Standing Group Partners announcing specific troop commitments with
timelines: "Country X pledges Y troops by Z date, Country A pledges B troops by C date." Look for total
approaching 2,000-3,000 additional forces beyond current Kenya deployment.
2. **FAILURE:** Vague statement expressing "continued commitment" to Haiti without specific numbers or
timelines. Language like "participants discussed contributions" or "partners exploring options" signals diplomatic
failure.
3. **CONTINUED SILENCE:** No announcement Wednesday = conference was contentious, negotiations
continue, or outcomes are being suppressed. Interpret continued silence as failure.
**Impact on Electoral Timeline:**
- **Specific commitments with mid-Dec to Jan deployment timelines**  Feb 1 remains theoretically possible
(though Bel-Air violence complicates).
- **Vague commitments or April+ timelines**  Feb 1 impossible, opposition will cite GSF failure in boycott
announcements.
- **No announcement or continued silence**  Feb 1 effectively dead, government faces legitimacy crisis.
---
### Immediate (24-48 hours)
2. **Bel-Air Death Toll & Violence Trajectory (Ongoing):** The Committee for Peace and Development reported
49+ killed as of Tuesday evening with attacks continuing. Wednesday's toll could be 60+, 75+, or higher. Watch for:
(a) Violence spreading to adjacent neighborhoods (Solino, Lower Delmas), indicating gang territorial competition
expanding; (b) PNH intervention announcements (unlikely but would signal government response); (c) Civilian
displacement numbershundreds sheltering now could become thousands if violence continues.
3. **Opposition Positioning (Dec 10-11):** Major opposition figures will likely issue statements
Wednesday-Thursday responding to Bel-Air massacre and GSF conference outcomes. Watch for language
signaling boycott preparation: "tragic violence proves elections impossible," "international community failed Haiti,"
"we cannot legitimize dangerous process." Coordinated messaging across multiple parties indicates orchestrated
boycott announcement coming Dec 12-13.
---
### This Week (December 9-15)
**December 9, 2025

4. **Candidate Registration Deadline (Dec 15 - 6 Days):** The final week of registration will reveal opposition
strategy. **Key inflection point: Dec 12-13**if no major opposition registrations by then, expect coordinated boycott
announcement timed for maximum impact before deadline. CEP must publish final list Dec 22; a list dominated by
government-aligned candidates creates legitimacy crisis even if elections technically proceed.
5. **Viv Ansanm Coalition Status:** Kempes Sanon was wounded and dethroned but not killed. His survival
means potential for counter-attack against rivals Jamesly and Ti Gason. Watch for: (a) Retaliatory violence as
Sanon's allies seek revenge; (b) Statements from Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier (G9 leader) addressing coalition
fracturewill G9 support Sanon or remain neutral?; (c) Coalition reformation attempts or complete splintering into
territorial warfare.
6. **Government Response to Bel-Air Crisis:** PM Fils-Aimé returns from New York to find capital in crisis. Watch
for: (a) Emergency security meeting with PNH leadership; (b) Public statements addressing violence (silence
would be catastrophic politically); (c) MSS/GSF deployment announcements to Bel-Air (unlikely but would signal
active response). Government inaction validates opposition claims of incompetence.
---
### Strategic (Through February 7, 2026)
7. **Post-Boycott Electoral Legitimacy Crisis (Dec 22-Jan):** If major opposition boycotts (announced Dec 12-13),
the Dec 22 candidate list publication reveals the damage: How many serious candidates registered? Does the list
suggest competitive election or government walkover? International observation missions may withdraw if
elections lack legitimacy, creating diplomatic crisis during campaign period (Dec 26-Jan 31).
8. **Security Deterioration Trajectory (Dec-Jan):** The Viv Ansanm fracture opens two possible paths: (a) **Rapid
Stabilization** - PNH/MSS forces exploit gang infighting to recapture territory, coalition reforms under new
leadership, violence contained within weeks; (b) **Escalating Warfare** - Gangs fragment into competing factions,
territorial battles spread citywide, civilian casualties mount, Port-au-Prince becomes ungovernable by January.
Path (b) is more likely given PNH's limited capacity and MSS's defensive posture.
9. **Constitutional Deadline With No Succession Plan (Feb 7):** If Feb 1 elections are boycotted or postponed,
Haiti reaches Feb 7 with CPT mandate expired and no legal government authority. The 97-day extension to May
14 (granted via electoral decree) assumes Feb 1 first round occurredif not, what legal basis does CPT have to
continue? International community faces choice: Recognize illegitimate CPT extension or demand new transitional
framework, neither option is good.
**Key Inflection Point:** Wednesday, December 10, 2025 - GSF conference outcome announcement determines
whether Feb 1 timeline survives or collapses. Combined with Bel-Air violence trajectory, this week represents the
most critical 72 hours of the transition.
---
##  PRIMARY SOURCES
**This brief is based on:**
- ABC News Bel-Air Massacre Coverage (Dec 9, 2025)[1]
- Click Orlando / AP Reporting (Dec 9, 2025)[2]
- Washington Post Bel-Air Analysis (Dec 9, 2025)[3]
- Newsmax / UN Report on Sanon (Dec 9, 2025)[4]
**December 9, 2025

- US News Bel-Air Continuing Violence (Dec 9, 2025)[5]
- Haiti Libre GSF Conference Coverage (EN/FR) (Dec 9, 2025)[6][7]
- The Star (Kenya) GSF Conference (Dec 9, 2025)[8]
- US Embassy Haiti X Post (Dec 8, 2025)[9]
- UN Security Council Report on Standing Group (Sept 2025)[10]
- Capital FM Kenya Fifth Contingent Deployment (Dec 8, 2025)[11]
- Haiti Libre PM Fils-Aimé GSF Statement (Nov 27, 2025)[12]
- Haiti Info Project Electoral Calendar Tracking[13]
- Haiti Libre Electoral Calendar (Dec 2025)[14]
- The New Humanitarian GSF Background (Dec 3, 2025)[15]
- ACLED December 2025 Overview[16]
**All sources hyperlinked and independently verifiable.**
---
**POLITIK AYITI** | Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition
*Next brief: December 10, 2025, 7:00 PM HAT*
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*POLITIK AYITI is produced by KreyòlGenius Intelligence Services, based in Gonaïves, Haiti. Finalist: Haiti Tech
Connect Awards 2025 (AI Excellence & Cultural Innovation).*
**December 9, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*