# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-07
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The weekend period reflects a deceptive calm before Monday's critical December 9 GSF conference in New York,
where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attempt to secure international military commitments for Haiti's
collapsing security situation. Port-Sondé enters its eighth consecutive day under Gran Grif gang control with no
government counter-offensive deployed, while the candidate registration deadline approaches in just 8 days with
zero major opposition declarations. The "silent registration" suggests coordinated opposition strategy awaiting Dec
9 conference outcomes before committing to participate or boycott the February 1 election timeline.
QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS:
Dec 9 Conference Critical: US diplomatic offensive for GSF force contributions tomorrow; success/failure
determines whether Feb 1 election timeline remains credible or must be abandoned
Port-Sondé Week Two: Gran Grif occupation enters eighth day without PNH/MSS response; gunfire exchanges
continued as recently as Wednesday Dec 3; strategic abandonment now confirmed
Registration Deadline Countdown: 8 days remaining until Dec 15 candidate registration closes; opposition silence
suggests waiting for Dec 9 outcomes before announcing participation or boycott
WEEK AHEAD: December 8-14
The Most Critical Week of Haiti's Transition
This seven-day period contains two make-or-break moments that will determine whether the February 1, 2026
election timeline survives or collapses:
Monday, December 9 - GSF Force Contribution Conference (New York):
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio convenes international partners to secure military commitments for Haiti's
Gang Suppression Force. Countries targeted include Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and CARICOM states.
Conference must produce binding troop commitments with deployment timelinesnot just rhetorical supportto
salvage electoral credibility.
Sunday, December 15 - Candidate Registration Deadline:
Final day for political parties and candidates to register with CEP for February 1 ballot. The current "silent
registration" (zero major opposition declarations as of Dec 7) suggests parties are conditioning participation on
Dec 9 conference outcomes. If conference fails, expect coordinated boycott announcements Dec 10-13.
Additional Critical Developments:
Port-Sondé occupation reaches Day 10 on December 9 (symbolic threshold validating police union's "50%
territorial loss" claim)
Saint-Marc City Hall occupation by protesters continues; RN1 highway blockade threatened if no government
action
CEP must prepare to process registration surge (if Dec 9 produces commitments) or empty ballot (if opposition
boycotts)
Diaspora TPS termination countdown: 57 days remaining (Feb 3, 2026)
Key Inflection Point: If Dec 9 conference produces concrete force commitments AND government retakes
Port-Sondé by Dec 12, opposition registers and Feb 1 timeline survives. If conference fails AND Port-Sondé
remains occupied, opposition announces boycott and electoral process delegitimized before voting begins.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT #1: The December 9 Gambit - US Attempts Diplomatic Hail Mary for GSF Force Contributions
Sunday, December 7, 2025

CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Official US State Department statements confirmed, Secretary Rubio public remarks
verified, December 9 conference scheduling documented by multiple diplomatic sources)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will convene international partners in New York tomorrow (Monday, December
9) in an urgent diplomatic offensive to secure military force contributions for Haiti's Gang Suppression Force
(GSF), representing the Biden-to-Trump transition administration's acknowledgment that the current Kenya-led
Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission lacks capacity to secure Haiti for the February 1 election deadline
just 55 days away.[1][2]
The Strategic Calculus:
The conference timing reveals US strategy: announce election date first (CEP did this December 5 with Feb 1
timeline), then scramble to build security architecture needed to implement it. This is the reverse of standard
post-conflict electoral planning, which establishes security before setting dates. Rubio's explicit language linking
GSF success to "advancing Haiti's security and stopping the violence perpetrated by criminal and terrorist gangs"
represents strategic messaging designed to justify military intervention under counterterrorism frameworks rather
than peacekeeping mandates.[2]
The shift from "gangs" to "criminal and terrorist gangs" is deliberateit enables potential US military involvement
under authorities that don't exist for conventional gang violence.
Target Countries and the "No" Problem:
Diplomatic sources indicate the US is targeting specific Latin American nations with prior Haiti intervention
experience:
Brazil: Historical MINUSTAH leadership (2004-2017); possesses Portuguese-speaking forces familiar with
stabilization missions; but explicitly declined Haiti deployment in March 2024
Argentina: UN peacekeeping experience; potential 200-300 personnel contribution; no public commitment yet
Chile: MINUSTAH veteran with institutional knowledge; hesitant due to domestic political constraints
Colombia: Counterinsurgency expertise; rapid deployment capability; demands clear mandate and funding
guarantees
CARICOM States: Symbolic participation for regional ownership; Jamaica, Bahamas have expressed interest but
lack capacity
The fundamental challenge: none of these countries showed appetite for Haiti deployment during 9 months of
consultations in 2024-2025. The December 9 conference must overcome consistent "no" answers in 72 hours.
Operational Reality vs. Political Timeline:
Even if tomorrow's conference produces binding commitments, deployment timelines for international forces
typically require 90-120 days for:
Legislative approvals in contributing countries
Equipment procurement and logistics coordination
Personnel training and force integration
Operational planning with existing MSS/PNH forces
Critical Assessment: The February 1 election date will arrive before any December 9 commitments can be
operationalized. This means the conference is actually about securing forces for the April 2026 second round or
post-election stabilitynot for the immediate first round 55 days away.
The alternative interpretation: the US knows February 1 is operationally impossible but is using the December 9
conference to maintain diplomatic momentum and avoid the political cost of openly acknowledging election
postponement. By producing "commitments" tomorrow, the administration can claim progress while the actual
deployment timeline makes these forces irrelevant to the Feb 1 vote.
Funding Gap:
Sunday, December 7, 2025

The GSF requires an estimated $600 million annually for a 2,500-person force. Current MSS funding relies on a
UN-administered trust fund that has received only $85 million of $250 million pledged. The US has contributed the
majority but demands burden-sharing. Tomorrow's conference must produce concrete financial commitmentsnot
just troop pledgesor the entire structure collapses before deployment begins.
Impact on Opposition Registration:
The December 9 conference serves as the trigger event for opposition parties' registration decisions (deadline
Dec 15). If the conference produces binding commitments with deployment timelines, opposition parties gain
justification to register and participate. If the conference produces only rhetoric, expect coordinated boycott
announcements December 10-13, delegitimizing elections before the registration period closes.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Haiti has experienced multiple international military interventions: the 1994 US-led Operation Uphold Democracy
(20,000 troops deployed in weeks), the 2004-2017 UN MINUSTAH mission (peak 9,000 personnel with 6+ months
planning), and the current MSS mission (400 personnel after 18 months deployment). Each previous intervention
required substantial lead time. The GSF effort attempts to compress this timeline to weeks. The December 9
conference model mirrors the 2004 donors conference that established MINUSTAH funding, but that conference
occurred AFTER US Marines had already deployed emergency stabilization forces to Port-au-Prince. The current
situation has no such emergency deployment, making the diplomatic ask significantly harder. Secretary Rubio's
involvement is notablehe has historically opposed Haiti interventions as resource waste. His December 5
statement suggests the Trump administration views Haiti stabilization as necessary to prevent migration flows, not
humanitarian concern.
DEVELOPMENT #2: Port-Sondé Occupation Enters Week Two - Strategic Abandonment Confirmed
CONFIDENCE: HIGH (Local official statements, humanitarian reports, police union declarations, and
ongoing gunfire confirmed by multiple independent sources through December 3)
The Gran Grif gang's occupation of Port-Sondé enters its eighth consecutive day as of Sunday, December 7, with
no government counter-offensive deployed and gunfire exchanges continuing as recently as Wednesday,
December 3.[3][4][5] The week-long occupation without any state response represents not a tactical delay but a
strategic decision: the government has effectively ceded Artibonite's breadbasket region to criminal control.
The Second Week Threshold:
When a gang occupation survives seven days without military response, it transitions from "incident requiring
police action" to "territorial control requiring military reconquest." Port-Sondé has crossed this threshold. Gran Grif
forces attempted to advance from the heights toward the "Pon Fifi" sector as recently as December 3,
demonstrating they are not conducting hit-and-run raids but consolidating territorial control.[3]
The death toll remains at approximately 20 confirmed deaths (including women and children), with 500+ houses
burned and hundreds of families displaced to Saint-Marc and Gonaïves.[4][5] However, these figures are likely
underestimatesareas under gang control remain inaccessible to humanitarian assessments, meaning the actual
toll may be significantly higher.
Gunfire Continues - Not Historical Event:
Critical distinction: This is not a massacre that occurred and ended. Vant Bèf Info reported ongoing gunfire
exchanges on Wednesday, December 3four days into the occupationas Gran Grif attempted further territorial
expansion.[3] This means Port-Sondé is an active combat zone, not a secured area where the government is
"restoring order." The absence of PNH/MSS forces means these "exchanges" are likely Gran Grif fighting local
self-defense groups or rival criminal elements, not state forces.
Saint-Marc Protests Sustained:
The December 1 takeover of Saint-Marc City Hall by protesters demanding government action has evolved into
sustained occupation through the weekend.[6][7] Protesters are not just demanding "protection" but specific
Sunday, December 7, 2025

military assets:
Redeployment of drones and armored vehicles from Port-au-Prince to Artibonite
Immediate PNH/MSS offensive to retake Port-Sondé
Protection for RN1 highway corridor to prevent complete severance
The sophistication of these demandsrequesting specific military-grade assets (drones, armored vehicles) that
protesters know exist but are concentrated in the capitalsuggests organized civil society coordination, possibly
including business leaders who depend on RN1 for commerce.
The Police Union's 50% Assessment Validated:
The national police union SPNH-17's December 3 declaration that "50% of Artibonite has fallen under gang
control" is being validated day by day.[8] With Port-Sondé occupied for eight days and Gran Grif expanding rather
than retreating, the territorial loss is no longer disputedit's observable fact.
Operational Implications - Food Security Crisis Imminent:
Artibonite produces 40% of Haiti's rice and staple crops. December is planting season. With farmers unable to
access fields due to gang presence, Port-au-Prince faces severe food shortages by Q2 2026. The RN1 highway
corridorHaiti's primary north-south arteryruns through Port-Sondé. With Gran Grif controlling the town, overland
commerce between Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien is effectively severed.
Strategic Assessment - Permanent Territorial Loss:
The government's failure to deploy forces within eight days signals this is not temporary gang activity but
permanent territorial shift. The PNH lacks capacity to conduct offensive operations outside Port-au-Prince's core
diplomatic zone. The MSS mission's complete absence from Artibonite reveals it as a static force protecting
embassy districts, not a territorial control operation.
Gran Grif's message to other gangs across Haiti: the government cannot defend areas beyond the capital. This
will embolden expansion elsewhere.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Port-Sondé's vulnerability was established during the October 3, 2024 massacre when Gran Grif killed 70+
civilians. The PNH claimed to have "secured" the town by late October 2024, deploying 400 officers. That
deployment has been exposed as theaterGran Grif returned, killed 20+ more, and faces zero resistance eight
days later. This follows a 15-month pattern of Artibonite deterioration: September 2024 (Pont-Rouge attacked,
never retaken), October 2024 (Liancourt attacked, gangs remain), December 2025 (Port-Sondé falls identically).
Each incident follows the same cycle: gang attack  government press release claiming response  no actual
deployment  gang consolidation. The police union's admission of 50% territorial loss simply formalizes what local
residents have known for months.
DEVELOPMENT #3: The "Silent Registration" Mystery - Opposition Boycott or Strategic Positioning?
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM (Candidate registration period confirmed open through December 15; absence of
major announcements verified through media monitoring; opposition motives remain analytical inference
based on strategic logic)
As the candidate registration period enters its final week (deadline December 15 - just 8 days away), the
continued absence of major opposition declarations represents either a coordinated boycott strategy or
sophisticated last-minute coalition negotiations.[9][10]
The Registration Mechanics:
The CEP established December 1-15 as the candidate registration window, requiring:
Party affiliation documentation
Sunday, December 7, 2025

Candidate biographical information and financial disclosures
Platform statements
Payment of registration fees (amount undisclosed)
Compliance with 30% women candidate quota for legislative slates
The CEP must process all registrations and publish the final candidate list by December 22just 7 days after the
deadline closes and 4 days before the December 26 campaign period opens.[9][10] This compressed timeline
leaves zero room for disputes, appeals, or late additions.
Notable Absences:
As of Sunday evening December 7, no announcements from:
Claude Joseph: Former Prime Minister, leader of significant political faction
Traditional party representatives: PHTK, Fanmi Lavalas, Fusion parties
Civil society candidates: No prominent business, religious, or social leaders have declared
Independent candidates: Typically numerous in Haitian elections, but none visible yet
This silence is unprecedented. In Haiti's 2015-2016 electoral cycle (the last completed elections), candidate
announcements dominated media coverage throughout the registration period. Major figures announced early to
build momentum and secure coalition partnerships.
Three Possible Scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Coordinated Boycott:
Opposition parties have concluded that February 1 elections cannot be credible given:
80-90% of Port-au-Prince under gang control
50% of Artibonite occupied (per police union admission)
Airport closed 28 days (candidates cannot travel for campaigns)
Campaign infrastructure impossible in contested zones
A coordinated boycott would delegitimize elections before they occur, forcing either postponement or producing a
"selection" rather than "election" dominated by pro-government candidates. Opposition learned from 2015-2016:
better to boycott before elections than participate and delegitimize them afterward when fraud/violence emerges.
Scenario 2 - Strategic Coalition Negotiations:
Major opposition figures are negotiating unified slates to avoid vote-splitting. Haitian politics historically fragments
opposition while government-aligned forces coordinate. A December 12-15 "surprise" announcement of a united
opposition coalition would demonstrate organizational capacity and create immediate campaign momentum. This
would also prevent government infiltration of coalition discussions.
Scenario 3 - Conditional Participation (December 9 Trigger):
Opposition parties are explicitly withholding registration as leverage to force government security commitments.
They may announce conditionally: "We will register by December 15 IF: (1) the December 9 GSF conference
produces binding force commitments with deployment timelines, AND (2) the government retakes Port-Sondé by
December 12."
This creates maximum pressure while preserving participation option if conditions improve. It also establishes
accountabilityif elections fail due to security, opposition cannot be blamed because they set clear conditions
publicly.
CEP Nightmare Scenario:
If major parties boycott, the February 1 ballot features unknown candidates lacking legitimacy. International
observers would likely refuse to certify such elections as credible. The Core Group (US, Canada, France, EU, UN,
OAS) has consistently demanded "inclusive" electionsa ballot lacking major opposition fails this test categorically.
Conversely, if registrations surge December 12-15 (after Dec 9 conference), the CEP's 7-day processing window
becomes impossible. Staff must vet hundreds of candidates, verify documentation, and publish lists while
Sunday, December 7, 2025

managing inevitable disputes. The December 22 publication deadline will slip, potentially delaying the December
26 campaign start.
Strategic Assessment:
The silence suggests intentionality rather than disorganization. By waiting until December 12-15 (post-Dec 9
conference), opposition preserves three options:
Register if security improves or government provides guarantees
Boycott if conditions remain impossible
Register but announce "conditional participation" maintaining flexibility
The December 9 conference serves as the decision trigger. If international forces commit, opposition may view
this as sufficient security trajectory. If the conference produces nothing, expect boycott announcements December
10-13.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Haiti's 2015-2016 electoral cycle experienced similar dynamics. The October 2015 first round proceeded despite
opposition complaints about fraud and security. When irregularities were documented, opposition parties
boycotted the scheduled December 2015 runoff, forcing cancellation and complete electoral restart in 2016. The
pattern: opposition participation does not guarantee electoral completion if security or legitimacy concerns emerge
mid-process. The current silence may reflect opposition learningbetter to establish conditions upfront than
participate and abandon later. Haiti's last successful presidential transition occurred in 2017 (Martelly to Moïse);
the 2021 Moïse assassination created the current CPT transition. The February 2026 timeline would mark nearly
5 years since the last elected president left office, making opposition participation critical for legitimacybut only if
security permits actual competition rather than pro forma voting in gang-controlled territories.
IMPACT RATING: 8/10 - Sustained Crisis Before Critical Inflection Point
Rationale: The weekend period reflects no dramatic new escalations, reducing from the 9-10/10 ratings of
December 5-6. However, this apparent calm is deceptiveit represents normalization of catastrophe rather than
improvement. Port-Sondé enters its eighth day of occupation with gunfire ongoing as recently as December 3,
validating the police union's "50% territorial loss" assessment. The absence of candidate registrations 8 days
before deadline suggests sophisticated opposition strategy rather than disorganization. Most critically, tomorrow's
December 9 GSF conference represents THE inflection point: if it produces binding force commitments, the Feb 1
timeline gains credibility and opposition likely registers; if it fails, opposition announces coordinated boycott and
electoral process collapses before voting begins. This is 8/10 rather than 9-10/10 because the weekend lull
provided brief respite and the Dec 9 conference preserves theoretical possibility of international intervention. If
Monday's conference fails, rating increases to 10/10 as electoral timeline becomes untenable.
IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
International Organizations (UN, OAS, NGOs)
Immediate Actions Required:
Deploy senior officials to December 9 NYC conference with clear mandate: will your organization support
elections under current security conditions, or demand timeline revision if conference fails?
Prepare dual-scenario planning: (A) If Dec 9 produces commitments  accelerate electoral support infrastructure;
(B) If Dec 9 fails  prepare postponement recommendations for Core Group
Utilize Port-Sondé eight-day occupation as concrete evidence of territorial collapse when advocating for either
GSF force contributions or electoral timeline adjustment
Establish December 15 registration deadline as assessment checkpoint: If major parties boycott, convene
emergency Core Group session December 16 to address legitimacy crisis
Sunday, December 7, 2025

TALKING POINT:
"Tomorrow's December 9 conference represents a critical test of international commitment to Haiti's security and
democratic transition. We strongly support efforts to secure Gang Suppression Force contributions, but we must
be candid about timelines: even successful commitments tomorrow require 90-120 days for deployment, meaning
forces arrive after the February 1 first round. The eight-day Port-Sondé occupation without any state response
demonstrates the security gap we face. We urge the conference to produce not just pledges but binding
commitments with accelerated deployment schedules. If the conference succeeds, we can justify supporting the
electoral timeline despite security challenges. If it fails to produce concrete commitments, we must have an honest
conversation about whether February 1 elections are achievable or whether postponement better serves Haiti's
democratic future."
Recommended Decision: Establish contingency framework: (1) If Dec 9 produces binding commitments from at
least 2 major contributors (Brazil/Argentina/Chile) with deployment timelines, maintain support for Feb 1 timeline
while acknowledging imperfect security; (2) If Dec 9 produces only rhetoric, recommend 60-90 day postponement
to align with realistic force deployment schedules; (3) Use opposition registration decisions (Dec 15) as legitimacy
validatorif major parties boycott, electoral process lacks credibility regardless of Dec 9 outcomes.
Businesses
Immediate Actions Required:
Monitor December 9 conference outcomes as strategic intelligence indicator: Force commitments signal improved
medium-term trajectory; conference failure indicates continued deterioration requiring accelerated contingency
implementation
Assume RN1 highway complete severance by December 15: Port-Sondé eight-day occupation makes overland
Port-au-Prince-Cap-Haïtien corridor permanently high-risk; redirect all supply chains through Cap-Haïtien
exclusively
Prepare for Q1 2026 electoral disruption regardless of Dec 9 outcomes: Even if conference succeeds, Feb 1 vote
occurs before forces deploy; expect transportation shutdowns, curfews, potential violence
Factor 57-day TPS termination countdown into workforce planning: Feb 3 deadline creates diaspora
deportation/remittance crisis overlapping with electoral instability
TALKING POINT:
"The December 9 international conference provides important signal about security commitment trajectory.
However, our business planning cannot wait for force deployments requiring 90-120 days when we operate in
territory where gangs have occupied a major town for eight consecutive days without government response. We
are implementing immediate defensive positioning: all Artibonite operations suspended until government
demonstrates territorial retaking capacity, logistics routing exclusively through Cap-Haïtien permanent
infrastructure, and 90-day cash reserves to sustain operations through Q1 2026 combined electoral/TPS/security
disruption. If tomorrow's conference produces concrete force commitments, we will reassessbut deployment
timelines mean any assistance arrives after the February 1 crisis period we must navigate."
Recommended Decision: Treat December 9 conference as intelligence indicator, not operational trigger. If
conference produces binding commitments from Brazil/Argentina/Chile, maintain current defensive posture but
begin medium-term planning for improved Q2-Q3 2026 security environment. If conference produces only rhetoric,
accelerate exit from Port-au-Prince-dependent operations entirely and concentrate exclusively in Cap-Haïtien
corridor. Assume RN1 will be impassable by December 20 regardless of Dec 9 outcomes.
Sunday, December 7, 2025

Political Actors
Immediate Actions Required:
Finalize registration decision by December 12 (post-Dec 9 conference): Use conference outcomes as trigger for
participation vs. boycott decision; file by December 15 or face ballot exclusion
Coordinate cross-party position on conditional participation: Form unified opposition statement: "We register IF:
(1) Dec 9 produces binding force commitments, AND (2) government retakes Port-Sondé by Dec 12"
Leverage Port-Sondé eight-day occupation as political accountability tool: Demand government explain why
constitutional watchdog (Ombudsman) declared "profound chaos" yet no action taken
Prepare dual-track strategy: Registration documents ready to file December 13-15 if conditions met, but boycott
announcement prepared if Dec 9 fails
TALKING POINT:
"Our party's participation in February 1 elections depends on credible security trajectory, not aspirational political
timelines. Tomorrow's December 9 international conference provides the critical test: if countries commit forces
with deployment schedules, we view this as sufficient commitment to democratic transition and will register by
December 15. If the conference produces only rhetoric while Port-Sondé remains occupied for nine consecutive
days, we cannot ask our candidates to risk their lives campaigning in territory Haiti's own Ombudsman officially
declared 'profoundly chaotic.' We will announce our final position December 12, giving the international
community and government 72 hours post-conference to demonstrate security commitment through both
diplomatic and operational action."
Recommended Decision: Form emergency opposition coalition by December 10 (day after conference) to deliver
unified statement: "We commit to registering candidates by December 15 contingent on: (1) at least two countries
making binding troop commitments at Dec 9 conference with specific deployment timelines, AND (2) government
launching visible Port-Sondé retaking operation by December 12 (proving minimal operational capacity). If neither
condition is met, we announce coordinated boycott December 13." This maximizes pressure while preserving
participation option if improvements occur.
Diaspora
Immediate Actions Required:
Monitor December 9 conference for ANY discussion of TPS extension or immigration freeze modificationextremely
unlikely but potentially significant if US links security assistance to humanitarian protection
Continue December 15 legal deadline: 57 days to TPS termination (Feb 3, 2026) requires immediate decisions on
voluntary departure, asylum filing, or remaining unlawfully
Recognize symbolic isolation: FIFA World Cup 2026 hosted in US/Canada/Mexico yet Haitian fans cannot attend;
Haiti's national team cannot play "home" matches in Haiti due to security[11]
Prepare for electoral instability overlap: If opposition boycotts (announced Dec 10-13), Haiti enters extended
political crisis undermining any TPS extension arguments
TALKING POINT:
"Tomorrow's December 9 conference highlights the contradiction we face: the international community recognizes
Haiti needs military intervention to hold basic elections, yet the United States simultaneously maintains our
deportation timeline to this crisis zone. If security conditions require foreign troops to establish order, how can
deportations to these same conditions be justified? We acknowledge Haiti's government is making electoral
progress, but even this progress depends on international force contributions the conference seeks tomorrow. We
Sunday, December 7, 2025

call on the December 9 participants to address not just military support but humanitarian protection: if
international troops deploy, coordinate with TPS extension to allow diaspora participation in democratic transition
rather than deportation before democracy is restored. The February 3 TPS deadline occurs just two days after
electionswe should be voting, not being deported."
Recommended Decision: Coordinate with congressional allies to introduce emergency amendment tying TPS
extension to GSF deployment: "TPS extended through August 2026 (second round elections) contingent on
international force deployment from December 9 conference." Frame as "supporting democratic transition" rather
than opposing deportation. If Dec 9 conference succeeds in securing commitments, this creates leverageUS
cannot demand other countries send troops while simultaneously deporting Haitians and defunding remittance
flows (40% of GDP). If Dec 9 fails, TPS extension becomes impossible; diaspora should shift entirely to legal
defense preparation for February 3 deadline.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

CRITICAL: December 9 GSF Conference (24 Hours)
Will countries commit forces with deployment timelines?
If YES (binding commitments): Electoral timeline gains credibility; opposition likely registers by Dec 15;
medium-term security trajectory improves even if Feb 1 occurs before deployment
If NO (rhetoric only): Electoral timeline exposed as fiction; opposition announces coordinated boycott Dec 10-13;
US faces choice between postponement or proceeding with illegitimate election
Immediate (24-72 Hours)
Monday, December 9:
GSF Conference Outcomes - Which countries commit? What are deployment timelines? Is funding secured?
Port-Sondé Day 9 - Does occupation reaching second week trigger any government response or formal
acknowledgment of territorial loss?
Tuesday-Wednesday, December 10-11:
Opposition Coalition Announcements - If Dec 9 fails, major parties announce coordinated boycott position
Ombudsman Follow-Up - Will national watchdog issue second letter if government continues ignoring Port-Sondé
crisis?
Saint-Marc Protest Evolution - Will demonstrators escalate to RN1 highway blockade if Dec 9 produces nothing?
This Week (December 8-14)
Wednesday-Friday, December 11-13:
Candidate Registration Rush or Drought - If Dec 9 succeeds, expect surge; if fails, continued silence
CEP Public Guidance - Will electoral council address registration silence and potential boycott scenario?
International Observer Positioning - Will UN/OAS/EU clarify whether they certify elections if major parties boycott?
Sunday, December 15:
Registration Deadline Expires - Final count of registered candidates determines electoral legitimacy
Government Response to Port-Sondé Week 2 - If occupation reaches 15 days, formal territorial abandonment
confirmed
Strategic (Through February 7, 2026)
December 16-22:
Sunday, December 7, 2025

CEP Candidate List Publication - Can electoral council process registrations and publish final ballot by Dec 22?
Opposition Legal Challenges - If boycott occurs, will parties file formal complaints challenging election legitimacy?
MSS Mission Redefinition - Will Kenya or UN acknowledge mission limitations post-Artibonite failure?
December 26 - Campaign Period Opens:
Security Feasibility Test - Can candidates actually campaign in gang-controlled zones, or does campaign exist
only on paper?
January-February 2026:
GSF Force Deployment Timeline - If Dec 9 produces commitments, when do forces actually arrive in Haiti?
TPS Termination - Feb 3 deadline creates diaspora crisis overlapping with Feb 7 CPT mandate expiration
Constitutional Crisis or Transition - Does Feb 1 election provide legitimacy for CPT extension beyond Feb 7, or
does government lose all authority?
Key Inflection Point: Monday, December 9, 2025 - The GSF conference represents final opportunity for
international community to construct security framework for February 1 elections. If conference produces binding
force commitments from at least two major contributors (Brazil/Argentina/Chile) with specific deployment
timelines, opposition parties will likely register by December 15 and electoral process maintains credibility despite
imperfect security. If conference produces only rhetorical support without commitments, opposition will announce
coordinated boycott December 10-13, delegitimizing elections before registration period closes. The Port-Sondé
occupation will reach Day 10 on December 9, providing vivid illustration of why force contributions are urgently
needed.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

[1] Haiti Libre - News Zapping: https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-46350-haiti-news-zapping.html
[2] Mirage News - Electoral Decree Approval:
https://www.miragenews.com/ministers-approve-december-2025-electoral-decree-1582241/
[3] Vant Bèf Info - Artibonite Security Crisis:
https://vantbefinfo.com/haiti-securite-le-departement-de-lartibonite-continue-de-subir-les-assauts-des-gangs-armes/
[4] Vant Bèf Info - Port-Sondé Attack:
https://vantbefinfo.com/haiti-le-collectif-defenseurs-plus-denonce-une-attaque-meurtriere-a-pont-sonde/
[5] RFI - Port-Sondé Catastrophe:
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/journal-d-ha%C3%AFti-et-des-am%C3%A9riques/20251203-ha%C3%AFti-situation-catastrophiqu
[6] Africanews - Saint-Marc Protests:
https://fr.africanews.com/2025/12/02/haiti-a-pont-sonde-la-population-dans-le-desarroi-face-a-la-violence-des-gangs/
[7] Vant Bèf Info - Ombudsman Letter:
https://vantbefinfo.com/chaos-dans-lartibonite-le-protecteur-du-citoyen-interpelle-le-premier-ministre-2/
[8] NBC News - Gang Attack:
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/haiti/gangs-launch-large-scale-attack-haitis-central-region-hundreds-flee-gu-rcna246881
[9] Haiti Info Project - Electoral Calendar Tweet: https://x.com/HaitiInfoProj/status/1982815073858105635
[10] Haiti Info Project - Calendar Image: https://x.com/HaitiInfoProj/status/1982815073858105635/photo/1
[11] New York Times - Haiti World Cup Ban:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6866418/2025/12/05/world-cup-news-haiti-travel-ban-united-states/
POLITIK AYITI | Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition
Next brief: Monday, December 8, 2025, 7:00 PM HAT
Sunday, December 7, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*