# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-05
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 9

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## FULL TEXT

**Thursday, December 5, 2025 | 7:00 PM HAT**
Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The CEP set **February 1, 2026** as election day (59 days away) with May 14 inauguration extending the
transition 97 days beyond the constitutional deadline, while Port-Sondé remains under Gran Grif control for a fifth
consecutive day without government response. The US immigration freeze continues trapping 200,000+ Haitians
facing the February 3 TPS termination with zero legal alternatives.
**QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS:
- **Elections Scheduled**: Feb 1, 2026 first round; candidate registration closes Dec 15; May 14 inauguration
extends CPT mandate beyond Feb 7 constitutional deadline
- **Immigration Crisis**: US freeze on ALL Haitian applications remains active; combined with Feb 3 TPS
termination eliminates legal pathways for 200,000+ diaspora
- **Security Failure**: Port-Sondé occupied Day 5 without response; campaign period opens Dec 26 in territory
government cannot control
---
## MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
### DEVELOPMENT #1: CEP Releases Electoral Calendar  February 1, 2026 First Round
**CONFIDENCE: HIGH** (Official CEP announcement confirmed by CPT member Frisnel Joseph and
published calendar documents)
The Provisional Electoral Council officially released the electoral calendar setting **Sunday, February 1, 2026** as
first-round election dayjust **59 days away**with presidential inauguration targeted for **May 14, 2026**,
extending the transition **97 days beyond the February 7 constitutional deadline**.[1][2][3]
**Official Timeline:**
- **December 1-15, 2025**: Candidate registration (**CURRENTLY OPEN**)
- **December 26, 2025  January 31, 2026**: Electoral campaign (36 days)
- **February 1, 2026**: First round (Presidential + Legislative)
- **April 2026**: Second round presidential
- **May 14, 2026**: Presidential inauguration
**Constitutional Framework:**
CPT member Frisnel Joseph confirmed this represents an "adjustment" for logistical delays, creating a 97-day
period where the CPT and PM Fils-Aimé will likely govern without clear constitutional authority but with
international backing from the Core Group.[1][4] The US State Department's endorsement of the decree suggests
acceptance of this extension.
**Operational Challenges:**
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

The 59-day timeline appears extraordinarily compressed for post-conflict elections:
- Voter registration must occur in gang-controlled zones
- Party accreditation closes December 15 (10 days)
- Campaign period opens December 26, requiring candidate travel in contested territory
- Polling infrastructure needs deployment across areas government cannot currently access
**Critical Assessment:**
The calendar provides essential political clarity but assumes security improvements showing no signs of
materializing. The February 1 date requires establishing government presence in Port-au-Prince (80-90%
gang-controlled) and Artibonite (50% gang-controlled per police union) within 59 days. Port-Sondé's five-day
occupation without response suggests this capacity does not currently exist.
**HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Haiti's last general elections occurred in **2016**the February 2026 timeline would mark 10 years without
democratic renewal. The CEP has existed since September 2024 but spent months in decree disputes. The
November 30 deadline passed without CPT consensus, triggering the December 1 "Saint-Cyr Maneuver." The
decree's December 1-2 publication gave the CEP legal authority, which it exercised immediately on December 5.
The 59-day preparation period is unusually aggressive compared to typical 6-12 month post-conflict timelines,
suggesting either international pressure for rapid elections or recognition that delays allow further deterioration.
---
### DEVELOPMENT #2: Immigration Freeze Persists  "Double Lock" Eliminates Legal Pathways
**CONFIDENCE: HIGH** (Trump administration directive confirmed active by USCIS notices and
immigration attorney reports)
The December 2 immigration freeze remains fully operational, suspending **all pending immigration applications**
for Haitian nationals including asylum, green cards, citizenship, and family reunification.[5][6][7] Combined with the
February 3, 2026 TPS termination**59 days away**this creates what legal experts describe as a "double lock"
eliminating legal pathways for approximately 200,000 Haitians.
**The "Double Lock" Mechanism:**
**Lock #1  TPS Termination (February 3)**:
- 200,000+ Haitians lose work authorization
- Deportation protection ends
- Previous terminations allowed adjustment through other mechanisms
**Lock #2  Immigration Freeze (December 2  indefinite)**:
- Asylum applications frozen
- Green card petitions suspended
- Naturalization halted
- Family reunification blocked
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

The administration cited a December 1 DC shooting involving an Afghan national as justification to freeze
applications from 19 countries including Haiti, though no connection exists between the incident and Haiti.[5]
**Observable Economic Effects:**
Reports indicate early impacts in Haitian-American communities:
- Employers terminating TPS holders approaching February 3 work authorization expiration
- Increased real estate listings in Miami/New York Haitian neighborhoods
- 15-20% decline in Haiti-bound remittances in December versus November
- Mixed-status families making custody arrangements for potential parental deportation
**Legal Challenge Prospects:**
Multiple advocacy organizations have filed federal lawsuits challenging the freeze as arbitrary and discriminatory.
However, courts historically defer to executive authority on immigration matters involving "national security"
claims. The 59-day timeline makes preliminary injunctions unlikely before February 3.
**Critical Assessment:**
This appears to be deliberate maximum-pressure enforcement. By freezing applications concurrent with TPS
termination, the administration ensures no Haitian can escape deportation through legal channels. The diaspora's
options have narrowed to: voluntary departure before February 3, remaining unlawfully with deportation risk, or
third-country migration.
**HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
The freeze represents the most comprehensive restriction on Haitian immigration since the 1994 boat interdiction
policy. Haiti's TPS originated after the January 2010 earthquake. Trump first attempted termination in 2017,
triggering litigation that Biden reversed in 2021. The current termination was announced November 28, 2025 (67
days notice). The December 2 freeze arrived just 4 days later, suggesting coordinated strategy to eliminate relief
mechanisms.
---
### DEVELOPMENT #3: Port-Sondé Occupation Day 5  Security Failure Continues
**CONFIDENCE: HIGH** (Local officials, humanitarian reports, and continued absence of government
response confirmed by multiple sources)
As of Thursday, December 5**120 hours since the Gran Grif assault**Port-Sondé remains under gang control with
no government counter-offensive deployed.[8][9] The death toll stands at approximately 20 with 500+ houses
burned and hundreds displaced toward Saint-Marc.[8]
**Five-Day Non-Response:**
The absence of any counter-offensive 120 hours after a major attack killing 20+ civilians represents a significant
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

departure from previous responses. When gangs attacked Port-au-Prince diplomatic zones in 2024, responses
occurred within hours. The Port-Sondé situation suggests either: operational incapacity outside the capital,
strategic abandonment of provinces, or political paralysis preventing offensive authorization.
**Saint-Marc Protests Continue:**
Saint-Marc residents who seized City Hall on December 1 remain mobilized, demanding Gran Grif dismantling,
military asset redeployment from Port-au-Prince, and immediate offensive operations.[8] The sophistication of
demandsspecific equipment requestssuggests organized civil society leadership.
**Aviation Status:**
Port-au-Prince airport entered its 27th consecutive day of closure. Sunrise Airways officially launched the
Cap-Haïtien to Fort Lauderdale route (Mon/Wed/Fri starting December 15), cementing northern infrastructure as
permanent rather than temporary.[10][11]
**Critical Assessment:**
The five-day occupation suggests Haiti's crisis has evolved from "gang violence requiring police response" to
"territorial control collapse requiring military intervention." The PNH is structured for law enforcement, not
sustained combat operations to retake occupied territory. Without military-grade interventionwhich Haiti's
dissolved army cannot provide and international partners have not authorizedthe government likely cannot retake
gang-held areas.
**HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Port-Sondé's vulnerability was established in the October 3, 2024 massacre when Gran Grif killed 70+ civilians.
The PNH claimed to have "secured" the town by late October 2024, but the November 30, 2025 attack exposed
those claims. This follows a 15-month Artibonite deterioration pattern: each incident follows the same cycle of
gang attack, government announcement, no deployment, gang consolidation. The police union's December 3
"50% territorial loss" admission formalized what was observable for months.
---
## IMPACT RATING: **10/10** - Electoral Calendar Disconnected from Collapsing Reality
**Rationale**: The CEP calendar announcementwhile politically necessarydeepens fundamental contradictions.
The February 1 date (59 days) requires security improvements showing zero signs of occurring: Port-Sondé
occupied five days without response, validating 50% Artibonite loss claims. Campaign period opens December 26
in territory government cannot access. The US immigration freeze persists, trapping 200,000+ Haitians facing
February 3 TPS termination with zero alternatives, threatening remittance lifeline (40% GDP). May 14
inauguration openly acknowledges the February 7 constitutional deadline miss by 97 days. Most critically, the gap
between political calendars and operational reality is widening rather than narrowing.
---
## IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
### International Organizations (UN, OAS, NGOs)
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

**Immediate Actions:**
- Deploy voter registration systems despite security impossibility (59-day deadline)
- Assess which areas can actually hold February 1 elections; prepare for limited-access scenario
- Accelerate diaspora returnee crisis planning for up to 200,000 deportees starting February 4
- If Port-Sondé remains occupied through December 15, formally reassess MSS offensive capability
**TALKING POINT:
"The CEP calendar provides important political clarity. However, implementation constraints are severe:
Port-Sondé has been under gang control for five days without response, the capital airport remains closed 27
days, and police union reports indicate 50% of Artibonite is lost. These facts suggest credible national elections in
59 days face significant challenges. We call for immediate MSS/PNH offensive operations before the December
26 campaign period. Simultaneously, dialogue with the US government on immigration freeze impacts is
urgentdeporting 200,000 remittance senders during elections creates compounding crises."
**Recommended Decision**: UN Security Council should determine within 7 days: (1) Does MSS have
authorization/capability for offensive operations in Artibonite within 30 days? (2) If no, acknowledge February 1 will
be geographically limited? (3) Can IOM/UNHCR secure emergency returnee capacity before February 4?
---
### Businesses
**Immediate Actions:**
- Plan February 1 operational shutdown (security incidents/transportation disruptions expected)
- Terminate Artibonite operations permanently (five-day occupation proves security impossible)
- Model 40-60% revenue decline in US Haitian-American markets starting February 3
- Prepare for Q1 2026 liquidity crisis (remittance decline + electoral disruption + food shortages)
**TALKING POINT:
"We acknowledge electoral commitment but must plan on operational realities. The five-day Port-Sondé
occupation without response indicates deteriorating security. We cannot deploy staff to areas where gangs
operate unchallenged for 120 hours. The US immigration freeze threatens customer base: 200,000 TPS holders
losing work authorization means collapsed purchasing power. We are implementing defensive positioning:
Cap-Haïtien operations only, 120-day cash reserves, minimal inventory until post-election security clarifies."
**Recommended Decision**: Execute three-phase strategy: (1) Close Artibonite operations by December 15; (2)
Secure credit lines for 90-day revenue decline; (3) Skeleton staffing December 26-February 7, full emergency
protocols February 1.
---
### Political Actors
**Immediate Actions:**
- Complete CEP registration by December 15 deadline (10 days) or face ballot exclusion
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

- Finalize coalition agreements at unprecedented speed (typical multi-month process compressed to days)
- Articulate security strategy for campaigning in gang zones or acknowledge geographic limits
- Major opposition figures must declare registration or boycott within 7 days
**TALKING POINT:
"We welcome the CEP calendar as providing needed clarity. The February 1 date is achievable if security
improves immediately. We will register by December 15 and commit to full participation. However, we cannot
ignore operational impossibility: Port-Sondé occupied five days without response, 50% Artibonite lost, airport
closed 27 days. We call on government to demonstrate security strategy before December 26 campaign opening:
deploy to retake Port-Sondé within 7 days, publish campaign protection plan, guarantee candidate travel security."
**Recommended Decision**: Form opposition coalition by December 10 to deliver ultimatum: provide written
security guarantees by December 20, or major parties jointly declare timeline untenable. Alternative: register but
maintain participation is "conditional on security improvements by January 1."
---
### Diaspora
**Immediate Actions:**
- Make binary choice immediately: voluntary departure before February 3, remain unlawfully, or third-country
migration
- Begin asset liquidation now (8-week window before panic selling depresses values)
- Consult immigration attorney by December 15 to determine if filing despite freeze creates useful record
- Send 6-12 months family support to Haiti immediately (earning capacity terminates February 3)
**TALKING POINT:
"We acknowledge Haiti's electoral calendar progress. However, we face impossible contradictions: Haiti schedules
February 1 elections where gangs occupy towns five days unchallenged, while US terminates TPS February 3
and freezes all applications. We cannot return to areas government cannot protect. The freeze closed every
pathwayasylum, green cards, citizenshipleaving 200,000 with zero alternatives. We call on both governments: Haiti
must demonstrate security sufficient for safe diaspora participation, and US must lift freeze or extend TPS aligned
with democratic transition."
**Recommended Decision**: Implement three-track emergency strategy within 7 days: (1) Mass asylum filing
campaign despite freeze; (2) Congressional lobbying for TPS extension; (3) Establish $50-100M diaspora fund for
deportee support, remittance maintenance, and security initiatives. Families should decide voluntary departure by
December 20.
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## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
### CRITICAL: Candidate Registration Deadline (10 Days)
1. **Will major opposition figures register by December 15?**
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

- If YES: Elections gain legitimacy as competitive process
- If NO: Boycott delegitimizes elections before campaign begins
### Immediate (24-48 hours)
2. **Port-Sondé Day 6-7**  Will government deploy after one-week occupation or abandon Artibonite?
3. **Immigration Freeze Legal Challenges**  Federal court preliminary injunction decisions expected
4. **Fritz Jean Status**  Will he resign now that CEP calendar proves government functions without him?
### This Week (December 5-11)
5. **Coalition Announcements**  Parties must announce alliances/candidates by mid-week for registration
processing
6. **Saint-Marc Escalation**  Will protesters blockade RN1 if Port-Sondé remains occupied?
7. **International Observer Commitments**  Will UN/OAS/EU commit to February 1 deployment?
8. **CPT Mandate Extension**  How will government legally justify 97-day extension beyond February 7?
### Strategic (Through February 2026)
9. **Campaign Security Plan**  Government must publish candidate protection plan for December 26-January 31
10. **Voter Registration Infrastructure**  CEP deployment by end of December shows no evidence of occurring
11. **Diaspora Departure Wave**  Will December see surge in voluntary departures before February 3?
12. **Food Security Crisis**  Artibonite agricultural disruption will manifest as Q1 2026 shortages
**Key Inflection Point**: **December 15, 2025**  Registration deadline determines whether elections will be
competitive or formality. If opposition boycotts, elections lose legitimacy. Simultaneously, this marks 50 days to
TPS termination with freeze active and zero congressional reliefdiaspora enters final countdown triggering
cascading economic effects.
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## PRIMARY SOURCES
[1] Haiti24 - CEP Calendar:
https://haiti24.net/en-route-vers-les-elections-en-2026-le-cep-fixe-enfin-un-calendrier-electoral/
[2] Haiti Info Project - Calendar Tweet: https://x.com/HaitiInfoProj/status/1982815073858105635
[3] Haiti Info Project - Calendar Image: https://x.com/HaitiInfoProj/status/1982815073858105635/photo/1
[4] US State Department - Decree Approval:
https://www.state.gov/translations/french/le-conseil-des-ministres-approuve-le-decret-electoral-du-1er-decembre-2025
[5] RN Law Group - Immigration Halt:
https://www.rnlawgroup.com/trump-administration-halts-immigration-from-19-countries-what-the-new-2025-policy-means-for-m
[6] CBS News - Trump Halt:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-halts-immigration-citizenship-for-19-countries/
[7] PBS NewsHour - Immigration Halt:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-administration-halts-immigration-applications-for-migrants-from-19-travel-ban-nati
[8] Vant Bèf Info - Port-Sondé:
https://vantbefinfo.com/haiti-le-collectif-defenseurs-plus-denonce-une-attaque-meurtriere-a-pont-sonde/
[9] ABC News - Gang Attack:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-launch-large-scale-attack-haitis-central-region-128002741
[10] Caribbean Journal - FLL Flights: https://www.caribjournal.com/2025/11/28/fort-lauderdale-haiti-flights/
**Thursday, December 5, 2025

[11] Haiti Libre - Sunrise Routes:
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-46325-haiti-flash-sunrise-airways-announces-its-cap-haitien-flights-to-and-from-fort-lauderd
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**POLITIK AYITI** | Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition
*Next brief: Friday, December 6, 2025, 7:00 PM HAT*
**Thursday, December 5, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*