# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-14
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 12

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: The Registration Mystery Ends Monday](#development-1-the-registration-mystery-ends-monday)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: Bel-Air Seven Day Massacre Strategy](#development-2-bel-air-seven-day-massacre-strategy)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: The US Immigration Triple Lock](#development-3-the-us-immigration-triple-lock)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Candidate registration closes Monday after an unprecedented 14-day silence with zero major opposition
declarations across all media channels, creating a registration mystery resolved only when the CEP publishes the
final candidate list December 22. The Bel-Air massacre enters its seventh consecutive day with at least 60 dead
and no government statements, police deployment, or humanitarian access, exposing the administration's
deliberate non-intervention strategy allowing gang self-purging at cost of civilian lives and state legitimacy. The
United States issued a third immigration restriction in 30 days with Family Reunification Parole program
termination effective December 15, combining with TPS expiration February 3 and application freeze to create
triple lock closing all legal pathways for 500,000 Haitians.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Registration deadline Monday December 15 concludes 14-day period with zero major opposition public
declarations creating unprecedented electoral mystery resolved December 22 when CEP publishes final
candidate list. Bel-Air violence continues seventh consecutive day with 60 plus dead and zero government
intervention signaling deliberate non-intervention allowing Viv Ansanm internal purge. United States Family
Reunification Parole program terminated December 15 marking third restriction in 30 days after application freeze
and TPS termination creating complete legal pathway closure for Haitian nationals. December 22 candidate list
publication will determine August 30 election viability showing either private registration success or coordinated
opposition boycott. TPS expires in 51 days February 3 affecting 348,000 to 500,000 Haitian nationals losing
deportation protection and work authorization.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS



## DEVELOPMENT 1: The Registration Mystery Ends Monday

CONFIDENCE
High Confidence. The December 1 through 15 candidate registration period is confirmed through CEP
official calendar announcements, Haiti Libre reporting, and Haiti Info Project documentation. The absence
of major candidate public declarations throughout the entire 14-day period is observable fact across all
mainstream Haitian media including Haiti Libre, Le Nouvelliste, AlterPresse, and Radio Metropole plus
international wire services including Reuters, AFP, and Associated Press. The interpretation of this
silence requires analysis pending December 22 candidate list publication which will provide definitive
evidence of registration activity. The CEP has not released preliminary registration statistics or candidate
counts during the registration period maintaining complete opacity about participation levels.
What's Happening
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

The candidate registration period reaches its final 24 hours Monday December 15 at midnight concluding a
14-day window that produced zero major public candidate declarations from recognized opposition figures or
established political parties. No prominent opposition leaders including former presidents, current senators, or
major party heads have held press conferences announcing presidential candidacies. No major political parties
including Fanmi Lavalas, PHTK, Pitit Desalin, or OPL have issued public statements about registration completion
or candidate selections for presidential, legislative, or local offices. This complete silence represents
unprecedented pattern in Haitian electoral history where candidate announcements traditionally generate massive
media coverage, street demonstrations, and elaborate political theater with parties competing for public attention
months before registration deadlines. The silence spans both domestic Haitian outlets and international wire
services that normally cover Caribbean electoral developments extensively. Social media contains only unverified
speculation without official CEP confirmation or candidate statements. The CEP December 16 through 19
contestation period will allow registered candidates to challenge competitor eligibility followed by December 22
final candidate list publication representing the first official disclosure of who registered. The campaign period for
August 30 election is scheduled to begin March 2026 providing eight months for candidate campaigning once the
registration phase concludes.
Why This Matters
The 14-day registration silence creates three distinct scenarios with fundamentally different implications for
August 30 electoral legitimacy and Haitian democratic transition viability. Scenario One involves widespread
private registration where major opposition figures and established parties submitted paperwork directly to the
CEP without public announcements to avoid gang targeting in the current security environment where public
gatherings attract violence, to prevent premature political attacks from rivals seeking to undermine candidacies
before official launch, or to maintain strategic surprise controlling when and how campaigns begin. This scenario
would be unprecedented in Haitian political culture which celebrates public candidate declarations but might
reflect rational adaptation to gang territorial control making mass rallies impossible in Port-au-Prince where 80
percent of territory remains under criminal organization dominance. Scenario Two involves coordinated opposition
boycott where major parties and prominent figures deliberately abstained from registration to delegitimize the
entire electoral process then plan to denounce the August 30 timeline as sham election after December 15
deadline passes. This boycott strategy has precedent in 2015-2016 electoral cycle where opposition parties
withdrew participation citing fraud and irregularities leading to vote annulment. A successful boycott would destroy
August 30 election credibility as international observers and diaspora communities would question whether results
represent genuine democratic choice or predetermined outcome favoring government-aligned candidates.
Scenario Three involves mixed participation where some established figures registered privately while major
opposition coordinated boycott creating confused landscape with partial legitimacy. The December 22 candidate
list publication will definitively reveal which scenario is operative through hard data showing registered candidate
names, party affiliations, and office competitions. A robust list including recognizable opposition leaders and major
party candidates would validate Scenario One private registration. A minimal list dominated by unknown figures or
government-aligned candidates would confirm Scenario Two coordinated boycott. Mixed results would indicate
Scenario Three fragmented opposition response.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian presidential elections historically feature elaborate multi-month candidate announcement campaigns with
political parties staging massive Port-au-Prince rallies, provincial tours, and prime-time media events to launch
candidacies and build name recognition. The 2015-2016 electoral cycle demonstrated how opposition boycott
strategies can destabilize democratic transitions when multiple voting rounds were annulled after major parties
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

withdrew participation claiming systematic fraud and CEP bias. Those boycotts established precedent for using
electoral process delegitimization as political weapon rather than contesting results through institutional channels.
The current transition context where the CPT and CEP were imposed through CARICOM international mediation
rather than emerging from national consensus creates additional boycott vulnerability as opposition figures
question whether institutions serve democratic purposes or international agendas. Major opposition leaders
including former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide who founded Fanmi Lavalas, former President Michel Martelly
who leads PHTK faction, and prominent senators like Youri Latortue have not publicly declared participation
intentions for 2026 elections. The registration period timing during December when diaspora political actors and
funding sources traditionally travel to Haiti would normally see peak announcement activity making the current
silence more striking. Previous electoral cycles saw candidates announce six to twelve months before registration
deadlines to establish campaign infrastructure, recruit staff, and secure financing from business interests and
diaspora networks.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: Bel-Air Seven Day Massacre Strategy

CONFIDENCE
High Confidence. Multiple authoritative international news agencies including ABC News, The Hill, CTV
News, and Latin Times confirm the ongoing Bel-Air violence beginning December 8 with consistent death
toll reporting. ABC News, The Hill, and CTV News all report at least 49 people killed with human rights
groups confirming the count and expecting numbers to rise as the area remains inaccessible to
authorities and humanitarian organizations. Specific casualty documentation includes 19 gang members,
10 child recruits, 19 women partners of gang members executed, and one elderly man struck by stray
bullet. High-profile leadership changes are confirmed with Kempes Sanon shot, wounded, and replaced by
rivals Jamesly and Ti Gason. Council on Foreign Relations global conflict tracker updated December 3
confirms the violence destabilized Viv Ansanm internal hierarchy. Jimmy Barbecue Cherizier video
statement is documented across multiple sources. Seven days have elapsed December 8 through 14 with
no government statements or police intervention reported in any media sources.
What's Happening
The Krache Dife gang assault on rival Viv Ansanm factions in Bel-Air has now continued for seven consecutive
days from December 8 through 14 with mounting casualties and zero government response across the entire
week. The confirmed death toll remains at least 60 with human rights organizations expecting significant
increases as the neighborhood remains completely inaccessible to authorities, humanitarian workers, and
independent monitors preventing accurate casualty assessment. Documented victims include 19 gang members
killed during the fighting demonstrating significant combat intensity, 10 children who were gang recruits showing
the violence consumed even youth members of criminal organizations, 19 women who were partners or relatives
of gang members executed by Krache Dife forces in apparent retaliation killings, and one elderly man in his sixties
struck by stray gunfire representing civilian casualties. The violence fundamentally transformed Viv Ansanm
leadership hierarchy with Kempes Sanon, a former Haitian National Police officer who transitioned to gang
leadership and was sanctioned by United States Treasury in October 2025, shot and wounded during the
December 8 initial assault then replaced by two rival commanders named Jamesly and Ti Gason while he
received medical treatment for gunshot injuries. Another prominent gang leader known as Dede was beheaded
during the violence in public execution demonstrating the extreme brutality characterizing the succession battle.
Jimmy Barbecue Cherizier who commands the broader Viv Ansanm coalition released video statement December
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

9 claiming he personally ordered the attack to stop kidnapping operations in Bel-Air stating that members who
continued abductions were violating coalition directives and would face consequences. As of Sunday evening
December 14 representing the seventh full day of violence no official Haitian government statement has
addressed the ongoing massacre, no Haitian National Police units have been deployed to stop the fighting or
restore order, and no humanitarian access corridors have been established to evacuate wounded civilians or
provide medical assistance to affected populations.
Why This Matters
The seven-day duration of extreme violence without any government response transcends bureaucratic delay or
operational incapacity representing instead a deliberate strategic policy decision by the Fils-Aime administration
and CPT leadership. The Haitian National Police and government security apparatus possess sufficient force
projection capability to intervene in Bel-Air as demonstrated by previous operations in gang-controlled territories
during 2024 when coordinated PNH and Multinational Security Support missions temporarily retook
neighborhoods. The decision not to intervene signals calculated acceptance of gang self-purging doctrine where
the administration permits and arguably encourages internal criminal organization violence betting that rival
factions weakening each other through combat ultimately benefits eventual state operations to retake territory.
This strategic calculation appears to prioritize reducing total gang combat effectiveness and eliminating
problematic gang leaders like Kempes Sanon who maintained networks within government institutions without
risking Haitian National Police officer casualties or expensive ammunition and equipment expenditures. However,
this non-intervention gambit carries massive strategic costs including normalization of week-long urban warfare in
the capital creating public expectation that extreme violence is tolerable, complete state absence from affected
neighborhoods destroying governmental legitimacy among populations experiencing violence, zero humanitarian
protection for civilian populations trapped in combat zones violating basic state responsibility, fundamental erosion
of rule of law as residents witness government deliberately allowing criminal organizations to kill civilians without
consequence, and potential triggering of cascading violence as other gang coalitions interpret non-intervention as
permission to resolve internal disputes through massacre. The death toll of at least 60 now substantially exceeds
the October Port-Sonde massacre that killed approximately 70 people and triggered urgent international
condemnation plus calls for immediate security intervention, yet the Bel-Air violence has produced no comparable
governmental response or international pressure. For international partners including the pending Gang
Suppression Force deployment this non-intervention policy raises critical mission scope questions about whether
international forces will intervene in gang-on-gang violence to protect civilians or limit operations to defending
government institutions and strategic infrastructure accepting civilian casualties in gang territories as unavoidable.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Bel-Air has functioned as gang-controlled territory for over a decade serving as strategic neighborhood adjacent
to downtown Port-au-Prince and National Palace grounds making it valuable real estate for criminal organizations
seeking to project power into governmental heart. The Viv Ansanm coalition formed in 2023 as federation of
previously independent gang organizations seeking to coordinate territorial control across metropolitan
Port-au-Prince and present unified resistance front against government security forces and international
interventions. The coalition structure has always been inherently unstable as member gangs maintained separate
territorial bases, independent command hierarchies, competing economic interests from kidnapping ransoms and
extortion payments, and personal rivalries among gang leaders who cooperated tactically while pursuing
individual power accumulation. Previous internal Viv Ansanm conflicts in 2024 resulted in temporary violence
lasting days followed by negotiated truces brokered by coalition leadership seeking to preserve united front
against external threats. The Krache Dife splinter represents more fundamental organizational break suggesting
the coalition structure is collapsing under combined pressure from government security operations, pending
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

international Gang Suppression Force deployment creating incentive for gang leaders to secure individual
positions, and internal disputes over kidnapping proceeds and territorial boundaries. The Haitian National Police
non-intervention doctrine evolved gradually throughout 2024 and 2025 as gang territorial control expanded to
approximately 80 to 90 percent of Port-au-Prince metropolitan area according to United Nations assessments
while police capacity remained limited despite Multinational Security Support mission presence. Previous PNH
operations focused on defending government institutions, airport, port facilities, and main commercial corridors
while effectively ceding residential neighborhoods to gang control.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: The US Immigration Triple Lock

CONFIDENCE
Absolute Confidence. The Family Reunification Parole program termination is documented in official
Federal Register notice published December 14, 2025 with effective date December 15, 2025. The
Department of Homeland Security Federal Register entry explicitly states termination of FRP processes
for Colombians, Cubans, Ecuadorians, Guatemalans, Haitians, Hondurans, and Salvadorans. The TPS
termination for Haiti is documented in Federal Register final notice published November 27, 2025 setting
February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM as official expiration. Immigration application freeze for 19 countries
including Haiti was reported by CBS News and other outlets December 2, 2025. The three restrictions
represent coordinated sequence targeting Haitian nationals specifically.
What's Happening
The United States Department of Homeland Security published Federal Register notice December 14, 2025
announcing immediate termination of the Family Reunification Parole program for Haiti and six other countries
effective December 15, 2025. The FRP program previously allowed certain Haitian family members of United
States citizens or lawful permanent residents to be paroled into the United States while awaiting immigrant visa
processing providing temporary legal status and work authorization during what often became multi-year wait
periods for visa availability. This December 15 termination represents the third major immigration restriction
specifically targeting Haitian nationals within 30-day period creating coordinated policy sequence closing legal
pathways. The first restriction occurred December 2, 2025 when the administration announced freezing all
pending immigration applications for 19 countries including Haiti suspending processing for green cards, asylum
claims, naturalization petitions, and family reunification cases. The second restriction was published November 27,
2025 in Federal Register confirming Temporary Protected Status termination for Haiti with official expiration date
February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM local time affecting approximately 348,000 to 500,000 Haitian nationals currently
residing in United States with TPS designation. After February 3 expiration Haitian TPS holders will lose
deportation protection, employment authorization, and legal status transforming into undocumented immigrants
subject to removal proceedings. The combined effect of these three restrictions creates complete closure of legal
immigration pathways for Haitian nationals as the application freeze prevents new entries, FRP termination blocks
family reunification parole channel, and TPS expiration eliminates temporary protected status that has sheltered
hundreds of thousands for years.
Why This Matters
The three coordinated immigration restrictions create unprecedented crisis for Haitian diaspora communities in
United States representing the most restrictive policy environment for Haitian nationals in modern immigration
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

history. The December 2 application freeze immediately suspended processing for tens of thousands of pending
cases including green card applications from Haitian nationals who had waited years in immigrant visa queues,
asylum claims from recent arrivals fleeing gang violence, naturalization petitions from long-term residents seeking
citizenship, and family reunification cases for relatives of United States citizens. This freeze creates indefinite legal
limbo for applicants who invested significant financial resources in application fees and legal representation. The
December 15 FRP termination effective immediately blocks the primary legal pathway for Haitian family members
to join United States relatives while awaiting immigrant visas eliminating the temporary parole status that
previously provided work authorization and deportation protection during wait periods. The February 3 TPS
expiration represents the most devastating component affecting 348,000 to 500,000 Haitian nationals who have
lived in United States for years or decades under temporary protected status many establishing families,
purchasing homes, starting businesses, and integrating into American communities. After February 3 these
individuals lose employment authorization making them unemployable in formal economy, lose deportation
protection making them subject to removal proceedings at any time, and lose legal status transforming into
undocumented immigrants forced to choose between remaining in United States illegally or returning to Haiti
where gang control covers 80 to 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and state collapse makes economic survival nearly
impossible. The triple lock policy creates massive humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands face impossible
choices between legal limbo in United States or return to country experiencing state failure. The restrictions also
eliminate remittance flows from diaspora to Haiti as deportees lose employment and remaining community
members redirect resources to legal defense rather than family support. For United States immigration system the
policies create massive enforcement challenge as hundreds of thousands transition to undocumented status
overwhelming detention capacity and deportation resources while triggering legal challenges in federal courts.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Temporary Protected Status for Haiti was first designated following the devastating January 2010 earthquake that
killed over 200,000 people and destroyed Port-au-Prince infrastructure. The program was repeatedly renewed by
Democratic and Republican administrations based on ongoing country conditions including political instability,
gang violence, natural disasters including Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and persistent inability of Haitian
government to safely receive and reintegrate returnees. At its peak TPS covered approximately 500,000 Haitian
nationals living in United States many for over a decade establishing deep roots in American communities.
Previous administration attempted TPS termination in 2018 but faced legal challenges and policy reversals. The
Family Reunification Parole program was established to reduce immigrant visa backlogs by allowing family
members to wait in United States rather than home countries while visa numbers became available reducing
separation periods for mixed-status families. The program processed thousands of Haitian applicants annually
providing legal pathway for family unity. The December 2 application freeze represents unprecedented broad
suspension affecting multiple visa categories simultaneously and targeting specific countries rather than applying
universal processing delays. The coordination of all three restrictions within 30-day window suggests deliberate
policy strategy to eliminate all legal pathways for Haitian nationals rather than incremental tightening of specific
programs.
IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
International Organizations



## TALKING POINTS

The candidate registration silence ending Monday December 15 requires emergency diplomatic engagement to
determine whether major opposition participated through private submissions or coordinated boycott as the
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

December 22 candidate list publication will provide first definitive evidence of electoral viability. The seven-day
Bel-Air massacre without government intervention confirms that security sector capacity building programs alone
cannot restore order without political will to protect civilian populations in gang-controlled territories. The United
States immigration triple lock closing all legal pathways for 500,000 Haitian nationals creates massive
humanitarian crisis requiring coordinated international response including potential third-country resettlement
options and emergency assistance for returnees. The February 7 CPT mandate expiration approaching in 55 days
without constitutional resolution framework threatens to delegitimize transitional government creating legal
vacuum for seven months until August 30 elections.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Deploy high-level CARICOM and OAS diplomatic missions Monday December 16 immediately after registration
deadline closes to engage CEP leadership demanding preliminary registration statistics before December 22 list
publication to enable early assessment of opposition participation. Convene emergency Organization of American
States consultation December 17 to evaluate candidate list implications and develop coordinated response
framework if major opposition boycott is confirmed. Establish formal position that continued international electoral
support including technical assistance, observer missions, and financial resources is contingent on genuine
multi-party competition with credible opposition participation. Demand immediate Haitian government briefing on
Bel-Air non-intervention policy requiring explanation of strategic rationale and civilian protection protocols.
Coordinate humanitarian access mission to Bel-Air regardless of ongoing violence establishing medical
evacuation corridors and civilian safe zones. Engage United States government at highest levels regarding
immigration triple lock requesting humanitarian exemptions or delayed implementation for TPS expiration to
prevent mass deportations to state failure conditions. Prepare emergency returnee assistance framework
including UNHCR coordination for potential third-country resettlement and IOM programs for forced returns.
Accelerate constitutional crisis mediation establishing CARICOM-brokered framework for CPT mandate extension
or transitional protocols covering February 7 through August 30 governance gap.
Businesses



## TALKING POINTS

The registration silence and pending December 22 candidate list publication create extreme uncertainty about
political stability timeline as elections without credible opposition would face immediate legitimacy challenges
potentially triggering civil unrest or institutional paralysis disrupting commercial operations. The seven-day Bel-Air
massacre demonstrates gang territorial control remains entrenched despite international security assistance with
government deliberately maintaining non-intervention policy allowing violence in workforce residential
neighborhoods. The United States immigration triple lock threatens to disrupt Haitian-American business networks
as 500,000 TPS holders lose employment authorization and potential deportations eliminate established
commercial relationships and remittance flows. The February 7 constitutional deadline approaching without
resolution means businesses will operate under government lacking constitutional authority for seven months
creating legal risks for contracts, regulatory decisions, and permits issued during unconstitutional period.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Suspend all major capital commitments and long-term contract negotiations until December 22 candidate list
publication provides definitive evidence of electoral viability and opposition participation levels. Develop
comprehensive scenario planning for three December 22 outcomes including robust multi-party participation
indicating legitimate election, minimal participation confirming opposition boycott and delegitimized process, or
mixed results requiring further assessment before investment decisions. Accelerate timeline for expatriate
dependent relocations before February 7 constitutional deadline given compounding political uncertainty, gang
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

violence normalization, and potential institutional instability. Ensure all critical business agreements, permits,
licenses, regulatory approvals, and contract renewals are finalized and executed before February 7, 2026 to
secure constitutional foundation before governance vacuum begins. Establish dedicated legal review process for
any agreements requiring signature between February 7 and August 30 to assess enforceability risks if
transitional government actions during unconstitutional period are later challenged in courts. Revise workforce
security protocols assuming Haitian National Police will not intervene in gang territorial disputes in employee
residential neighborhoods requiring enhanced private security for transportation, housing, and emergency
evacuation. Review business continuity plans for scenarios including mass TPS deportations disrupting United
States operations, remittance flow collapse affecting Haitian purchasing power, and potential civil unrest if
December 22 candidate list confirms opposition boycott.
Political Actors



## TALKING POINTS

Candidates who registered by Monday December 15 must immediately secure written CEP confirmation
specifying registration validity for August 30, 2026 election with constitutional legal citations to prevent future
timeline disputes or candidacy challenges. The December 22 candidate list publication will define entire
competitive landscape revealing whether elections feature genuine multi-party democratic competition or reduced
fields dominated by government-aligned candidates that undermine result credibility internationally. The
registration silence from major opposition creates strategic fork where participating candidates can position
themselves as legitimate democratic actors engaging transition process while boycotting parties risk political
irrelevance and exclusion from August 30 governance. The February 7 CPT mandate expiration provides
constitutional leverage to demand CARICOM-brokered extension frameworks before committing campaign
resources to electoral process potentially occurring under illegitimate governmental authority.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Form emergency unified candidate coalition Monday December 16 immediately after registration closes to submit
formal written demands to CEP requiring preliminary registration statistics and party participation data before
December 22 final list publication. Demand written guarantees from CEP that all completed registrations will be
honored under final August 30 timeline with no procedural disqualifications or technical rejections. Establish public
participation criteria setting December 22 candidate list as firm decision point for continued electoral engagement
with explicit withdrawal conditions if major opposition boycott is confirmed or constitutional crisis remains
unresolved. Engage CARICOM representatives immediately demanding their active mediation on February 7
constitutional deadline making clear participating candidates will not legitimize elections held under
unconstitutional authority without international guarantees of governance continuity and legal validity. Develop
dual-track campaign strategies optimized for eight-month timeline with official March 2026 public launch while
maintaining organizational flexibility to pivot to boycott position if electoral conditions deteriorate or legitimacy
collapses. Coordinate with international election observer organizations establishing independent monitoring of
CEP candidate list compilation process ensuring transparency and preventing manipulation of registration data.
Demand CEP publish comprehensive registration statistics by December 18 showing total candidate numbers
disaggregated by office type, political party affiliation, and geographic distribution to enable public assessment of
participation levels and competitive balance before final list publication.
Diaspora



## TALKING POINTS

The United States immigration triple lock represents existential crisis for 500,000 Haitian TPS holders facing
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

employment authorization loss February 3 and potential mass deportations to gang-controlled Haiti where 80 to
90 percent of Port-au-Prince remains under criminal organization territorial dominance. The candidate registration
silence and December 22 list publication will determine whether diaspora communities should invest resources in
August 30 electoral participation or prepare for extended political crisis if major opposition boycott is confirmed.
The February 7 constitutional deadline approaching without transition framework confirms Haitian political class
has failed to prepare for democratic elections despite years of international pressure and CARICOM mediation.
The seven-day Bel-Air massacre without government response demonstrates that security conditions remain
dangerous for diaspora return travel even for voting purposes as state deliberately maintains non-intervention in
gang violence.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Diaspora organizations must immediately mobilize legal defense networks for TPS holders facing February 3
expiration coordinating with immigration attorneys to file emergency stay applications, humanitarian exemptions,
and potential class action challenges to triple lock policy. Document all three immigration restrictions
systematically archiving Federal Register notices, policy announcements, and implementation timelines to
establish comprehensive legal record for court challenges. Organize emergency community meetings during
December 15 through 22 period to prepare TPS holders for loss of employment authorization advising on legal
options, emergency financial planning, and potential return scenarios. Coordinate with United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees and international protection organizations exploring third-country resettlement
options for TPS holders who cannot safely return to Haiti given state failure conditions. Monitor December 22
candidate list publication organizing rapid diaspora analysis to assess opposition participation and electoral
legitimacy before committing resources to voter registration drives or campaign support. Establish diaspora
observer delegations for December 22 CEP list publication and subsequent electoral process providing
independent documentation separate from official government reporting. Defer major financial commitments to
political candidates or parties until January 2026 when constitutional framework for post-February 7 governance
becomes clearer and candidate viability can be assessed based on campaign development and opposition
participation confirmation. Develop comprehensive contingency plans for mass deportation scenarios including
emergency assistance funds for returnees, reintegration support networks, and security protocols for forced
returns to gang-controlled areas. Support diaspora voting rights advocacy while maintaining realistic expectations
that August 30 election may face fundamental legitimacy challenges if December 22 list confirms opposition
boycott making result acceptance and governmental transitions uncertain.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Today
Monitor whether any major candidate or political party issues final-hour announcement Sunday evening before
Monday December 15 midnight registration deadline potentially breaking 14-day silence pattern with dramatic
last-minute declaration. Track whether CEP issues any preliminary statements regarding registration activity
levels, candidate counts, or party participation ahead of December 22 official list publication. Observe whether
Bel-Air violence extends into eighth consecutive day or shows any signs of resolution as Krache Dife consolidates
territorial control. Watch for any Haitian government statements addressing seven-day massacre or explaining
strategic rationale for non-intervention policy. Monitor United States implementation of Family Reunification Parole
termination effective December 15 including any last-minute legal challenges or policy clarifications.
This Week
Monday December 15 midnight marks candidate registration deadline closing the window and forcing all electoral
participants to commit without further delay. Tuesday December 16 begins CEP contestation period through
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

December 19 allowing registered candidates to challenge competitor eligibility on constitutional, legal, or
procedural grounds. Track whether major opposition parties issue post-deadline statements explaining
participation decisions or formally announcing boycott strategies to delegitimize August 30 process. Monitor
whether CEP releases any preliminary registration statistics Tuesday through Friday showing total candidate
numbers by office before December 22 final list publication. Observe whether CARICOM or OAS issue emergency
statements addressing registration silence and electoral viability concerns. Watch whether Haitian government
finally responds to Bel-Air crisis after full week of violence or maintains non-intervention doctrine. Track whether
United States provides any TPS implementation guidance or deportation timeline clarifications following February
3 expiration. Monitor legal challenges to immigration triple lock including potential emergency injunctions or class
action filings in federal courts.
Strategic
Sunday December 22 candidate list publication represents the single most consequential event for 2026 electoral
legitimacy with robust major party participation indicating genuine democratic competition versus minimal
participation confirming coordinated opposition boycott and fundamental legitimacy crisis. A boycotted election
would collapse August 30 timeline requiring emergency CARICOM renegotiation of entire transition framework.
The period from now until February 7 represents final 55 days to establish constitutional mechanisms for
governance continuity past CPT mandate expiration with failure to resolve by late January triggering accelerating
political crisis and potential international partner withdrawal from transition support. Monitor whether Gang
Suppression Force deployment timeline announcements clarify mission rules of engagement particularly
regarding intervention in gang-on-gang violence like Bel-Air massacre versus limiting operations to government
institution protection. Track whether additional Viv Ansanm leadership figures receive targeted sanctions following
Kempes Sanon pattern and whether subsequent internal organizational responses create security operation
windows. Observe February 3 TPS expiration implementation including actual deportation operations,
humanitarian exemptions, legal challenge outcomes, and potential mass return scenarios requiring emergency
assistance. Watch for cascading gang violence beyond Bel-Air as other criminal organizations interpret
government non-intervention as permission to resolve internal disputes through massacre potentially spreading
violence across Port-au-Prince neighborhoods.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre official calendar announcement for upcoming elections
Haiti Info Project Twitter post on CEP electoral calendar
Wikipedia entry on 2026 Haitian general election
Le Nouvelliste article on candidate qualification requirements
ABC News report on dozens killed in Haiti capital as armed men break from gang coalition
The Hill coverage of gang violence in Haiti capital
Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker on Haiti instability
CTV News report on dozens killed in Haiti gang coalition fighting
Latin Times report on violent clashes between Haitian gangs killing dozens
Federal Register notice on termination of Family Reunification Parole processes published December 15, 2025
ILCM fact sheet on Temporary Protected Status for Haiti
Federal Register notice on termination of Haiti TPS designation published November 28, 2025
CBS News report on Trump administration halting immigration and citizenship for 19 countries
Jeelani Law USCIS updates on TPS for Haiti
Forum Together fact sheet on termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haiti
All Tech is Human global election guide for Haiti 2025
Facebook post from Widden Official on presidential candidate speculation
US State Department international travel information for Haiti
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

Le Monde international reporting on gang-squeezed Port-au-Prince neighborhoods
AlterPresse Haitian media coverage
sources are verified through multiple channels and confidence ratings reflect analytical certainty based
on source triangulation and institutional reliability assessment.
Sunday, December 14, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*