# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-01
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 7

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The November 30 electoral decree deadline expired without publication as the fractured CPT failed to sign the
document, rendering the August 30, 2026 election timeline mathematically invalid and exposing the "Haitian-led
solution" as functionally dead. Over the same weekend, Gran Grif gang forces launched their second massacre in
Port-Sondé within 14 months, killing approximately 12 civilians and maintaining control of the town for 48+ hours
despite PNH claims of territorial gains. With the TPS termination date locked at February 3, 2026—just four days
before the CPT's constitutional expiration—Haiti now faces a predictable governance vacuum and potential mass
deportation crisis with no electoral pathway forward.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
DEVELOPMENT #1: Electoral Decree Deadline Expires—Transition Roadmap Collapses
As of Monday morning, the November 30 deadline for publishing the electoral decree passed without action, as
the Conseil Présidentiel de Transition (CPT) failed to sign the document submitted by the Provisional Electoral
Council (CEP) on November 14.[1][2]
The Breakdown:
The decree was blocked by the CPT's internal fracture between the "majority" faction (Gilles/Leblanc/Jean) and
Prime Minister Fils-Aimé's allies. Sanctioned member Fritz Alphonse Jean remains defiant despite US visa
revocations, using the decree as leverage in his power struggle with the PM.[3][4]
Operational Consequence:
The CEP's calendar, which scheduled the first round of elections for August 30, 2026, is now technically invalid.
The CEP explicitly stated its operational timeline was "dependent on the publication of the decree within the
allotted timeframe."[1] Without the decree, voter registration cannot begin, the mandatory 30% women candidate
quota cannot be enforced, and diaspora voting logistics cannot be implemented.
Prime Minister's Failed Maneuver:
PM Fils-Aimé convened an emergency Council of Government on Friday, November 28, attempting to "accelerate"
the review and bypass CPT obstruction.[2] However, legal authority to publish the decree rests exclusively with the
Presidency (CPT), not the Executive. The PM's maneuver exposed his inability to act unilaterally despite
international backing.
Three February 7 Scenarios:
With elections now impossible before the CPT's constitutional mandate expires on February 7, 2026, Haiti faces
three outcomes:
PM Decree Governance: Fils-Aimé governs by decree with US/OAS backing, effectively dissolving the CPT
CPT Extension: International community brokers unconstitutional extension beyond February 7
Governance Vacuum: CPT expires with no succession plan, triggering constitutional crisis
None involve democratic elections.
Strategic Significance:
The deadline's expiration without even a public CPT statement confirms complete institutional collapse. The
Presidential Council cannot coordinate basic administrative functions, much less organize elections. For
international partners who invested diplomatic capital in the CPT model since April 2024, this represents the
definitive failure of the "Haitian-led transition."
DEVELOPMENT #2: Gran Grif Launches Second Port-Sondé Massacre—12+ Dead, Town Still Under Gang
Control
Heavily armed Gran Grif gang members launched a large-scale attack on Port-Sondé (Artibonite) over the
weekend of November 29-30, marking the second major massacre in the town within 14 months.[5][6]
Casualties and Current Status:
Local official Guerby Simeus confirmed "nearly a dozen deaths" (approximately 11-12 victims) as of Monday
Monday, December 1, 2025

morning, including women and children. The death toll is expected to rise as bodies are recovered from burned
homes.[6][5]
Critically, gang members remained in control of the town as of Monday morning. Simeus noted that "no additional
police had arrived" despite the attack lasting over 48 hours, leaving residents trapped with no state protection.[6]
The Devastating Pattern Repeats:
This attack marks the second time Gran Grif has massacred Port-Sondé civilians. On October 3, 2024, the gang
killed over 100 people in the same town, forcing mass displacement.[7] The fact that Gran Grif could return 14
months later and conduct another coordinated massacre—then hold the territory for 48+ hours—demonstrates
catastrophic failure by both the Haitian National Police (PNH) and the Multinational Security Support (MSS)
mission.
Mocks PNH's Friday Victory Claims:
The attack occurred just 48 hours after the PNH's November 29 press conference claiming territorial gains,
including reducing downtown Port-au-Prince gang control from 32% to 20.89%.[8] Gran Grif's ability to conduct a
massacre 70 miles north of the capital while the PNH celebrated "progress" exposes the fantasy underlying
official security assessments.
MSS Defensive Posture Fails Rural Zones:
The Kenyan-led MSS mission operates under Rules of Engagement (ROE) that limit operations to defensive
patrols in Port-au-Prince. The force lacks the mandate, resources, or tactical flexibility to conduct offensive
operations against gang bases like Savien (Gran Grif's stronghold) or protect rural food corridors in Artibonite.[7]
Humanitarian Crisis:
Port-Sondé residents are fleeing toward Saint-Marc for the second time in 14 months, creating a new
displacement wave. The Artibonite region is Haiti's agricultural heartland—continued gang control of these routes
will manifest as food price inflation in Port-au-Prince within 2-3 weeks.
DEVELOPMENT #3: Dual Deadline Convergence Locked—TPS February 3 + CPT February 7
The US Federal Register officially confirmed that Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haiti will terminate at
11:59 p.m. on February 3, 2026, creating a mathematically locked four-day convergence with the CPT's
constitutional expiration on February 7, 2026.[9][10]
The Predictable Crisis Window:
February 3, 2026 (11:59 PM): TPS designation ends, triggering potential deportation proceedings for 350,000+
Haitian holders
February 7, 2026: CPT constitutional mandate expires without elections
Four-Day Window: Mass deportation orders converge with governance vacuum
Diaspora Legal Mobilization:
Immigration attorneys and advocacy groups are filing emergency injunctions this week in US federal courts
(Southern District of Florida, District of Massachusetts, Southern District of New York), arguing that deportations
violate the non-refoulement principle.[11] Their evidence:
US State Department's Own Assessment: Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory due to "kidnapping, crime, civil unrest"
No Functioning Airport: Toussaint Louverture International remains closed to commercial aviation following
November 23 gunfire incident[12]
International Consensus: UN, OAS, and humanitarian agencies assess gang territorial control at 80-90% of
Port-au-Prince
Economic Impact:
With the February 3 deadline confirmed, diaspora communities are entering defensive financial postures. Haitian
TPS holders are reducing remittance flows, hoarding savings, and liquidating non-essential US assets. This will
manifest as economic contraction in Haiti throughout Q1 2026, as remittances account for approximately 25-30%
Monday, December 1, 2025

of GDP.
Currency Stability Misleading:
The gourde remains stable at 130.64 HTG/USD as of Monday,[13] but this reflects paralyzed economic activity
rather than confidence. The triple shock—electoral failure, Port-Sondé massacre, TPS termination—has not yet
been priced into currency markets. Expect devaluation pressure in January 2026.
IMPACT RATING: 10/10 - CRITICAL FAILURE
Rationale: Monday, December 1, 2025 confirms the total collapse of Haiti's democratic transition. The missed
November 30 deadline proves the CPT cannot perform basic administrative functions, much less organize
elections. The Port-Sondé massacre—with gang forces holding the town 48+ hours without PNH
response—exposes catastrophic security failure and makes a mockery of official "territorial gains" claims. The
locked February 3-7 dual deadline creates a predictable, unavoidable convergence crisis where 350,000 potential
deportees face return to a country with no functioning government, no elections, and gangs controlling 80-90% of
the capital. These are not theoretical risks—they are operational realities with published dates and confirmed
casualty counts.
IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
International Organizations (UN, OAS, NGOs)
Immediate Actions Required:
US State Department Response: Issue public statement condemning CPT's failure to publish decree within 24
hours—signal shift in US position toward PM decree governance model or alternative framework
MSS Mandate Reassessment: Convene emergency UN Security Council session this week to address
Port-Sondé massacre and MSS Rules of Engagement failure—current defensive posture allows massacres in
rural zones while mission guards Port-au-Prince
February 7 Contingency Planning: Begin coordinating response protocols for CPT mandate expiration—determine
whether international community backs PM decree governance, brokers CPT extension, or prepares for vacuum
Reality-Based Security Assessments: Disregard PNH's "20% gang control" claims and base operational decisions
on verifiable indicators (airport closed, WFP logistics shifted to Cap-Haïtien, displacement patterns, casualty
counts)
Recommended Decision: Acknowledge CPT failure publicly; signal support for PM decree governance as interim
solution with conditions (human rights monitoring, anti-corruption safeguards, timeline for genuine elections once
security permits); demand MSS mandate expansion to offensive operations against gang bases
Businesses
Immediate Actions Required:
Abandon August 2026 Planning: Any business continuity plans based on "elections in 2026" must be scrapped
immediately—electoral timeline is mathematically impossible, revise scenarios to prolonged transition (2+ years)
or February breakdown
Food Supply Chain Crisis: Gran Grif's 48-hour control of Port-Sondé threatens Artibonite food corridor—diversify
supply routes through northern corridor (Cap-Haïtien), stockpile essential commodities, hedge against 20-30%
price inflation in Q1 2026
Airport Closure Indefinite: Week 3 of no commercial flights to Port-au-Prince—expat staff remain trapped,
coordinate with embassies for chartered evacuation contingency, assume no resumption through end of 2025
Currency Devaluation Preparation: Gourde stability is artificial (paralyzed activity, not confidence)—expect Q1
2026 shock when TPS remittances reverse and February crisis hits, hedge HTG exposure aggressively
Recommended Decision: Shift all operational planning to "extended crisis" baseline; maintain capital lockdown
Monday, December 1, 2025

indefinitely; accelerate northern corridor infrastructure investments; prepare 30-40% food price inflation scenarios;
establish emergency extraction protocols for international personnel
Political Actors
Immediate Actions Required:
PM Fils-Aimé Empowerment Window: The CPT's failure creates political space for PM to announce decree
governance with international backing—expect announcement within 72 hours, likely with US/OAS public support
Fritz Jean's Endgame: Jean's defiance directly caused deadline failure—he faces overwhelming pressure to
resign, but may calculate that forcing CPT collapse serves his interests (avoids legitimizing PM's authority)
Post-CPT Positioning: Political parties must abandon electoral campaign planning immediately and position for
governance continuity negotiations—question is not "who wins 2026 elections" but "what governing structure
replaces CPT on February 7"
Opposition Mobilization Risk: Deadline failure may trigger protests/general strikes by opposition groups
demanding CPT resignation—prepare for "pays lock" scenarios in coming weeks
Recommended Decision: Signal public support for PM decree governance as least-bad option; demand Fritz Jean
resignation to salvage CPT credibility; prepare for non-electoral transition to permanent government; focus on
governance legitimacy (international recognition, operational capacity) rather than electoral legitimacy
Diaspora
Immediate Actions Required:
File Legal Challenges This Week: Immigration attorneys must submit emergency injunctions to federal courts
immediately—Port-Sondé massacre strengthens non-refoulement arguments (US cannot deport to active war
zone where gangs hold territory for 48+ hours without police response)
Evidence Documentation for Legal Cases: TPS holders should compile comprehensive evidence packages: (1)
State Department Level 4 advisory, (2) Airport closure documentation (no deportation logistics possible), (3) UN
gang control assessments (80-90%), (4) Port-Sondé massacre timing and casualty reports
Community Legal Defense Fund: Organize coordinated fundraising for multi-jurisdiction litigation
strategy—individual cases are weak, but class-action injunctions targeting 350,000-person cohort with unified
evidence creates stronger legal position
Financial Defensive Posture: Begin strategic asset preservation—DO NOT liquidate US property prematurely
(legal challenges may delay deportations 6-12 months), but prepare contingency funds for legal fees, family
support, and potential emergency returns
Recommended Decision: File injunctions in Southern District of Florida (Miami), District of Massachusetts
(Boston), and Southern District of New York this week; coordinate with national immigration advocacy
organizations for amicus briefs; leverage Port-Sondé massacre as evidence of unsafe conditions; prepare media
campaign highlighting deportation-to-war-zone contradiction



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

CRITICAL: US State Department Response (24 Hours)
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
What to Monitor:
Public Statement on Deadline Failure: Will State Department issue condemnation of CPT's inability to publish
decree? Or maintain diplomatic silence?
Signals on PM Support: Any indication that US will back PM Fils-Aimé governing by decree as alternative to failed
CPT?
Monday, December 1, 2025

Sanctions Escalation: Will US impose additional measures on Fritz Jean faction for obstructing transition?
Binary Outcomes:
If Strong Condemnation: Signals US abandoning CPT model, empowers PM decree governance
If Diplomatic Silence: Suggests US still attempting to broker CPT internal compromise (unlikely to succeed)
Immediate (24-48 hours)
Port-Sondé Death Toll Revision - Bodies still being recovered; if toll reaches 20+, international outcry will intensify
pressure for MSS offensive mandate
PNH Counter-Offensive? - Will police attempt to retake Port-Sondé after 48-hour gang occupation? Or concede
territory permanently?
CPT Internal Statement - Will Presidential Council issue any public explanation for missing deadline? Silence
confirms institutional death
This Week (Dec 2 - Dec 8)
Core Group Emergency Session - US, Canada, France, Brazil, EU, UN, OAS must coordinate response to CPT
failure and Port-Sondé massacre—expect meetings in Port-au-Prince or Washington by Friday
Diaspora Legal Filings - TPS injunction lawsuits expected in federal courts (Miami, Boston, New York) citing
Port-Sondé massacre and airport closure as evidence
PM Decree Governance Announcement - If Fils-Aimé moves to govern by decree, expect formal announcement
with international backing by end of week
Gourde Market Reaction - When will currency price in triple shock (electoral failure + massacre + TPS crisis)?
Currently stable at 130 HTG/USD but lag is temporary
Sunrise Airways Negotiations - Any indication of security measures enabling flight resumption? Or complete
stalemate through December holidays?
Strategic (Through February 7, 2026)
Post-CPT Governance Framework Decision - International community must choose by mid-December: support
PM decree governance, broker CPT extension, or prepare for vacuum
TPS Legal Timeline - Federal courts typically take 4-6 weeks for emergency injunction hearings; expect
preliminary rulings in January 2026
MSS Mission Future - Kenya's mandate discussion in early 2026; Port-Sondé massacre may accelerate
withdrawal if offensive ROE not granted
Food Security Crisis - Gran Grif control of Artibonite corridor will manifest as Port-au-Prince food price inflation by
mid-December; WFP emergency distributions likely
Key Inflection Point: Tuesday, December 2, 2025 - The US State Department's response (or lack thereof) to the
missed electoral deadline will determine whether Haiti transitions to PM decree governance with international
support, or descends further into institutional paralysis. The CPT has proven incapable of basic governance—the
question is whether international partners acknowledge this reality or continue propping up a failed institution.
SOURCES:
Monday, December 1, 2025

[1] Haiti Libre - Official Electoral Calendar:
https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-46218-haiti-flash-official-calendar-of-upcoming-elections.html
[2] Vant Bèf Info - Government Accelerates Decree Review:
https://vantbefinfo.com/haiti-decret-electoral-le-gouvernement-accelere-mais-les-critiques-persistent/
[3] AyiboPost - Fritz Jean Denies State Department Claims:
https://ayibopost.com/fritz-alphonse-jean-dement-une-note-du-departement-detat/
[4] WLRN - US Sanctions Fritz Jean:
https://www.wlrn.org/americas/2025-11-25/us-sanctions-high-ranking-haitian-official-and-accuses-him-of-supporting-gangs
[5] Click Orlando - Gran Grif Attack Port-Sondé:
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/world/2025/12/01/gangs-launch-large-scale-attack-in-haitis-central-region/
[6] CNN - Port-Sondé Gang Attack:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/01/americas/gangs-launch-large-scale-attack-in-haitis-central-region-as-hundreds-flee-gunfire-an
[7] ACLED - Port-Sondé Massacre Analysis:
https://acleddata.com/brief/pont-sonde-massacre-marks-surge-gran-grifs-deadly-campaign-artibonite-acled-insight
[8] Haiti Libre - PNH 100-Day Report:
https://www.haitilibre.com/article-46309-haiti-flash-la-pnh-regagne-du-terrain-au-centre-ville-de-port-au-prince-bilan-video.html
[9] Federal Register - TPS Termination:
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/11/28/2025-21379/termination-of-the-designation-of-haiti-for-temporary-protec
[10] Canada Caribbean Institute - CPT Mandate Expiration:
https://canadacaribbeaninstitute.org/2025/10/07/us-pressures-haiti-transitional-government-to-organize-elections/
[11] BBC - TPS Termination Reaction: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly481gxwr8o
[12] Flight Global - Sunrise Airways Suspension:
https://www.flightglobal.com/safety/sunrise-airways-suspends-port-au-prince-flights-due-to-ongoing-gang-activity/165465.article
[13] BRH - Exchange Rate: https://www.brh.ht/taux-du-jour/
POLITIK AYITI | Intelligence for Haiti's Democratic Transition
Next brief: Tuesday, December 2, 2025 | 7:00 PM HAT
Monday, December 1, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*